Gloom and Doom for Oz Thread

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by JulieW, Jul 27, 2015.

  1. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Also i just like to point out that i live in the Western Sydney area, so these are not just numbers I'm reading off some web site. I'm seeing it with my own eyes. There is very little competition atm if your renting, you can more or less pick what you want and can get them to drop the price.

    Very different from when i was trying to rent in Ultimo around 5 years ago :D. It was impossible to find a good place and if you did you would have to bid up the price and take a rectal examination.
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2018
  2. Miksture

    Miksture Active Member Silver Stacker

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    1. You say "if we are getting wealthier then we are not being exploited". Firstly, are we getting wealthier? We certainly pay more tax than ever before. We have more people who own wealth and when you put it all together we have more money total, but do we have more money each?

    Secondly, if person A earns $100 of which they spend $50 to live, pay $30 in tax and has $20 free; and person B is paid only $80 for the same job, gets taxed $24 and lives on $50 and has $6 free would you not say that person B is being exploited? They are both getting wealthier but the rate is lower for the exploited person.

    2. Now look at the company that hired person B. They are a multi-national. Now have $20 extra profit which they take out of the Australian economy. It is not left in an Aussie bank and used to make loans, nor is it spent on expanding the business or on luxury items or anything. It just leaves the economy. No, it is either spent in a foreign economy, invested or banked. Remember money is never destroyed, but it does expand an economy, it is spent again and again to create more productivity and profit opportunities. Sending profits overseas does not result in Caterpillars in Australia.
     
  3. Miksture

    Miksture Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Sort of. Profits leave our economy and so do not circulate to stimulate growth. Profits going overseas do expand their economy while ours shrinks. Part of the theory of exploited economies is based on the profit siphoning principles where you must leave enough profit in an exploited country to provide the infrastructure to continue to support the exploitation but move the bulk back to your own country and contribute to the wealth of the local economy. This was the principle behind the colonial period and still exists to this day.
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No, Australia is not getting wealthier. From memory according to the Legatum Index we are the only G20 nation to have experienced a decline in our level of prosperity, in fact the world’s level of prosperity is the highest it’s been in the last 10 years. (The Legatum Index has only been around for about 10 years).

    Remember, wealth is not money, it is a medium of exchange. Wealth is measured by how well we meet our needs and desires.

    My earlier point was that profit leaving a country does not lead to declining prosperity because the only way a company can make a profit, is by meeting consumer demand. If a company generates a profit it has enhanced consumer wealth. And also remember, the profits that a company makes is the money consumers willingly gave them because they wanted other stuff more, if given a choice the consumer would rather have goods than money.

    That’s a different issue.


    Profit is the reward for meeting consumer needs and wants. If a company believes that there will be further reward by doing business in a nation then an incentive exists to re-invest a portion of that profit in order to generate even more profit. If there is a lack of incentive say caused by a high corporate tax rate or by the erection of artificial barriers in the market, then it’s highly likely those funds will not be reinvested.

    It’d be awkward to get Caterpillars into Australia if the profit from their sale wasn’t sent to whoever built them in the first place. :D
     
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  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sounds more like Marxism/national-socialism to me. I googled the theory of exploited countries and couldn’t find any leading thinkers of the school.

    Clearly the data from the Legatum Prosperity Index, and others disputes that assertion.
     
  6. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's taken a while, but the mainstream is finally seeing what I've been talking about for a while now regarding Sydney increasing rental vacancy rates.
    I've been seeing it with my own eyes every day for over a year now, only to see the property Permabulls stick their heads in the sand when i talk about it. And they keep building more :p


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-17/rental-vacancies-in-sydney-hit-13-year-high/10002240
     
  7. toorak13

    toorak13 Member

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    Australians are NOT getting wealthier. eg. government taxed you 30-45% tax, gst 10%, other hidden taxes like (sugar, ewaste) ,tobacco , alcohol, rego, council rates, increase water, gas, electricity , what's left?
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Unlikely to change at all with Shorten intent upon pursuing a class war and The Greens intent upon dehumanising us and expanding the footprint of the State.
     
  9. House

    House Administrator Staff Member

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    I feel @JulieW needs a Bob Dylan quote for this! But Another Bob will do for now “The greatness of a man is not in how much wealth he acquires, but in his integrity and his ability to affect those around him positively”.

    Sweeping generalization but Australians *are* getting wealthier... otherwise we wouldn’t have reached an all time high for disposable income in Q1 2018.
    GST has been around for 20 years so that’s a moot point, the Gov has been taxing 30-45% for decades so nothing new there (significantly down from the 60-75% rates seem back in 50’s and 60’s), what sugar tax and ewaste taxes? tobacco is a tax on stupidity so that’s fair game, all the others will never go down no matter what generation you live in
     
  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Income (money) is not wealth. Wealth is the capacity for us to meet our needs and desires. It's also known as prosperity and Australia's level of prosperity is declining.

    Global prosperity is at an all time high however the Legatum Prosperity Index shows Australia has fallen from 2nd place to 9th over a period of 11 years. Of particular concern is our weak performance in Economic Quality (20th), Safety and Security (22nd), Personal Freedom (15th) and Governance (14th).
     
  11. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ahem:

    What's money? A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do.
    - Bob Dylan

    There's an evenin' haze settlin' over town
    Starlight by the edge of the creek
    The buyin' power of the proletariat's gone down
    Money's gettin' shallow and weak
    Well, the place I love best is a sweet memory
    It's a new path that we trod
    They say low wages are a reality
    If we want to compete abroad
    My cruel weapons have been put on the shelf
    Come sit down on my knee
    You are dearer to me than myself
    As you yourself can see
    While I'm listening to the steel rails hum
    Got both eyes tight shut
    Just sitting here trying to keep the hunger from
    Creeping its way into my gut
    Meet me at the bottom, don't lag behind
    Bring me my boots and shoes
    You can hang back or fight your best on the frontline
    Sing a little bit of these workingman's blues

    - "Workingman Blues #2" - Bob Dylan

    “They tell you ‘Time is money,’ as if your life was worth its weight in gold.”
    - Bob Dylan
     
  12. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Wealth seems to have different meanings depending who you ask. Some see wealth in dollars/possessions and some see it as Shiney describes "capacity for us to meet our needs and desires". They are two very different things.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2018
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The classical economists viewed wealth as a measure of how well we satisfy our needs and wants in an attempt to differentiate from what they argued as an erroneous view of wealth as being money (gold). I think they had two reasons for this, the first is that as a measure of human achievement we are wealthier than ever before because we have an ever increasing capacity to satisfy those needs and wants thanks to technological advancements, and secondly to combat the State’s propensity to inflate the money supply which distorts the concept of real wealth.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2018
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Trump views money as wealth, hence his retarded notions about and policy on trade.
     
  15. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Don't most policy makers have that view these days? Hence why they are failing.
     
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  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yep. And it’s not a new view either, Adam Smith was combatting it in the 1700’s.
     
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  17. House

    House Administrator Staff Member

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    And the beat goes on, everlasting :(

    The struggling Aussie economy has entered a record 28th year of expansion, with a seasonally adjusted 0.9% growth.

    GDP growth surged to 3.4% in FY2018, the strongest annual growth in 6 years.

    National mortgage arrears rate fell by 5 basis points in 2Q18 to just 1.09% according to Fitch’s RMBS Index.

    Aussie exports ended FY2018 with an incredible month with a seasonally adjusted $36.44 billion. That's the greatest ever month for Australian exports, taking the annual total blazing past $400 billion for the first time on record, nestling it at a lazy $401.5 billion. Must be all that baby formula.

    Brisbane's unit vacancies were considerably lower year-on-year at 2.3%, down from 3.6% last year.

    SQM reports that apartment glutted Brisbane continues to experience a sustained 2018 decline in vacancy rates from 3.6 per cent in December to 2.9 per cent by July.

    Youth unemployment is trending down nicely too to the lowest level in about 6 years.

    In July, Victoria's unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level since 2011 following on from a tremendous leap in job vacancies. Post the end of the car manufacturing industry.

    The total number of rental vacancies in Australia has declined over the past year from 75,733 to 72,748, according to the latest figures from SQM Research. This represents a decline from in the national vacancy rate from 2.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent.

    IO loans and high LVR are *so* 3 years ago

    AB961195-191B-4527-9706-2C512B12F8D2.jpeg

    EB2AAF59-87A3-4D78-90F8-109DA2F2AA84.jpeg
     
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  18. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ... And auction clearance rates continue their decline. Barely maintaining 50% in NSW.

    auction_results.png
     
  19. House

    House Administrator Staff Member

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    Not a bad result for a Wednesday. Whereas last Saturday’s was a smidge under 60%

    E86EFECC-C1B4-4BDB-80A0-517E5883B7FD.jpeg

    That belongs in the 3 year old Sydney is Crumbling thread anyway. This thread is for how bad the Aus economy is going... and it’s going well bad as you can tell from my posts.

    Forgot to add;

    The jobs figures surprised everyone with a seasonally adjusted increase of +44,000 in August 2018 to a record high of 12,631,300, with almost all of the gains driven by New South Wales.

    Full-time employment was up +33,700 for the month, for another very solid gain.
    Total employment has surged by an outsized 2½ per cent over the year, or an increase of +306,400 additional jobs on a net basis.

    Trend unemployment rate declined a bit more to 5.3 per cent, down from 5.5 per cent a year earlier.
     
  20. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    House, maybe you should refresh yourself with this video since you love massaged data so much. ;) Oh wait we are honest in Australia.

    Anywho RBA still thinks Australia real numbers look like crap and feel we need to stay on emergency low interest rates.

     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
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