Gloom and Doom for Oz Thread

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by JulieW, Jul 27, 2015.

  1. House

    House Administrator Staff Member

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    So... how many busts have there been to booms?

    Indeed they’re not, hence why I asked for your source on them.

    Plenty of reasons why they’re still empty, not everyone settles at the exact same time when a building is finished. Should go knock on those 30 doors in 6 months time, empirical evidence is far more useful than observational. As I said there’s 90,030+ “empty” apartments across just Sydney and this is the norm.



    Nice how they picked someone who ‘believes’ their property is worth $1.2m after a DIY reno. Poor fella should have added a bedroom and sold last year, his neighbor got $1.4m.
     
  2. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So you agree there is no housing shortage then? Because Government and property bulls use that as their key argument. Also considering rent prices have been flat over the past few years show there is no excess demand. Prices in Western Sydney are cheaper now then 3 years ago.
     
  3. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Booms that were caused by excessive speculation (as i stated) and not fundamental booms like technological improvement, then 1 to 1.
     
  4. House

    House Administrator Staff Member

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    Just because they’re empty doesn’t mean they’re rentable. How many are currently advertised for rent and what’s the trend been and I’ll be able to answer that cracker of a question.

    Okely dokely, if you say so.
     
  5. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Now you're learning ;)
     
  6. House

    House Administrator Staff Member

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    More like not bothered :)
     
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  7. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That was last year. He needs to 'adjust his expectations'.
     
  8. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  9. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Did Martin ever say he thought property prices would fall 40% across all of a city?
    I always thought he meant that 40% figure was for the really highly developed boom areas, but not for the overall average of a state. For example a 1 bedroom apartment selling for $1 million at it's peak might come down to $600k, but the overall for the state might be 15% down.
     
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  10. clear

    clear Well-Known Member

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    @ willrocks why would you bother looking at that blog - the wager "house prices will not fall by more than 35%" - how is that so different to Martin Norths prediction of 40%.
     
  11. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Why do they always say 40%?

    :D
     
  12. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It seems they both agree on the market direction (down), they only disagree on the amount and timeframe.
     
  13. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Only 40% say that :D.
     
  14. House

    House Administrator Staff Member

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    We’ll never know as 60 Minutes misreported most of the story, surprise surprise.

    “Mr North also weighed in on the debate, saying that the figures used in the program did not reflect his “central scenario” and that Channel Nine “chose not to cover” the more likely alternatives.”
    D9D1E944-41B5-465F-95ED-316ADFF2550C.jpeg

    And Lovely Louis had his comments taken out of context too and as a result will no longer interview for them
    D3669EE5-3924-4397-865D-9C9A4C075945.jpeg

    The Granville REA still hasn’t bothered to return my call or emails either.
     
  15. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Are you questioning the journalistic integrity of 60 Minutes? It's not like they need to sensationalise stories in order to boost ratings. /sarcasm
     
  16. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  17. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    what REA are you talking about?

    update:

    I see their website says he is from the Granville office, but the 60min video shows him at the Parramatta office. Maybe you should try the Parramatta office as it looks from the video he works there now, which would make sense to what he was talking about regarding being hard to sell. Also i can verify his claim that apartments in Parra have dropped about 15-20% from what they were a year ago.

    Though I've spoken to 2 other REA around Sydney and both also noted how it's getting very hard to sell/rent at current prices, so not unique to Parra, but Parra is the front runner.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018

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