Just thought I would throw it out there...........it's been in my head for a long time and I would like you all to pick this to pieces if you can. Traditionally when SHTF in the financial world, there is a flight to the USD. When there is high risk appetite and economies are motoring along, funds flood into Australia. Take the last 2 years as a perfect example. Australia avoided the worst of the GFC and unemployment really wasn't affected....were 150+Billion in hock to be able to say that but that is another story. As a result, massive amounts of capital investment has continued to flood into Australia to take advantage of out prosperity and the high yield that we afford them. Hence the term a "commodity currency". Now inversely lets look at the USA. They have copped the GFC pretty damn bad and unemployment is a disaster and the Fed Reserve is destroying the USD hand over fist........... Now what I can't understand is, what is stopping Australia and the AUD becoming the currency of choice in the future for a SHTF scenario.........????????????????? Providing of course we continue to have much better fiscal policies than the US and other major currencies. At the end of the day, with a small population, we produce far more than what we consume. Even at much lower commodity prices we can maintain this for quite some time with ChIndia continuing to develop for some time to come. We kind of are already on a gold style standard with a big basket of commodities backing up our currency.... I would like to write more in support of this thought but I figure this is enough to get the discussion going. Cheers Chris
I think he should reword that to what does Australia produce besides raw materials and agricultural produce? Well... courtesy of Juliar i think I can safely say we produce stupidity and provide comic relief for the rest of the world as well :lol:
Lovey80, "Take the last 2 years as a perfect example. Australia avoided the worst of the GFC and unemployment really wasn't affected....were 150+Billion in hock to be able to say that but that is another story. As a result, massive amounts of capital investment has continued to flood into Australia to take advantage of out prosperity and the high yield that we afford them. Hence the term a "commodity currency". If komrade kevin had had the ALPs $97 BILLION still on the slate the day the media got him and the politburo elected, the GFC and later events would have panned out a LOT worse than they did. Throwing "stimulus" money at the problem helped, but to add that to the $97 billion would have had us in BAD trouble now. Even so, the socialists have managed to get the Mastercard up to $150 billion +++ and rising rapidly, no matter how much BS they dish up about surpluses in 2013. That adds up to $350 billion, soon to be $450 billion. And that does NOT include the (ex) socialist states! Yes, the miners are keeping us in the game, but ** WHEN ** the SHTF and the USA and China both fall in a hole, the miners will stop digging simply because demand will dry up. They will only restart digging when demand returns. Until then the mines will go into mothballs. 'Chindia' will not save us with minerals demand, though they DO need food. The farmers have a bit better near and medium term future because people MUST eat! (if they can afford to buy the stuff) You can forget about any factories that may have survived so far! We will NOT avoid "the big one" still to come. JMNHO OC
I would like Australia to be #1, but it seems the people that can make it happen are only interested in their own pockets. e.g. Dairy Farmers being ultimately owned by the Japs. They shoulda listed on the ASX with Bega-like conditions if they needed the cash instead of selling out to National Foods. Too many fat-cats being "un-Australian" and selling off our utilities (EnergyAustralia sold to TruEnergy, which is wholly owned by the Chinese), off-shoring our jobs to india/china, on-shoring cheap labour instead of training up our workers (it is the best long-term solution if we wanna keep the people educated and productive) etc... It feels bad to see it. We're different at the moment, but there's a few ticking time-bombs that no one important wants to diffuse. btw. I remember the pamphlets sent out by EnergyAustralia mentioned that TruEnergy is an Australian company. I guess most people thought "well at least they're Australian" but they didn't go further to verify just how Australian it really is.
mining companies are gearing up and aren't complaining about super profits taxes for nothing noticed their push to buy up land?
ohh actually... no wait... hmmm... that bikini is made in china... ahwell.. yep.. you're rite... we only produce raw materials... but that aint all bad... ?
With things like the mining tax and now the carbon tax, Australia is starting to become a significant "sovereign risk"...so no probably not. AUD is tiny tiny tiny when you're talking about major currencies. $1 trillion+ USD a day is the volume of the US treasuries market.
I'm only quoting you because I like that picture and want to see it again as I scroll down the page. (Bugger it doesn't work). I don't count raw materials as "produce". Just dig it up and ship it out. that's not producing anything. What happens when it all runs out, or what happens when the greens shut it all down? What does Aus produce then? Apart from nice nubile young chicks (who leave and never come back)?
Could Australia really be different? . . . No. Full stop. We are too small to be anything other than a blip on the global toilet paper that the bankers wipe their arses with. . . . unless we can grow a spine like Iceland and stop the shit from spreading when they open their sphincter of global governance via austerity. That would be like a node of barbed wire on their toilet paper, eh? But would they leave us alone like Iceland has done, or would China send in the troups to protect their ass(ets)? Our country has been destroyed from the inside by a bunch of communists with UN aspirations. It is a tragedy and the disaster is unfolding daily with every headlie.
I agree with not being any different, I think the main reason that we didnt end up as worse as other western countries during the GFC is because our housing bubble didnt pop And as far as Australias currency as a safe haven I dont think so at all, I think if SHTF then people would unload risky assets like the Aussie dollar and iether run to gold/swiss franc/US dollar maybe And as for Foreigners buying up Australia I agree its disgusting, the idiots who run this country are selling farmland left right n centre to China and letting them buy up our infrastructure and even residential real estate while at the same time trying to destroy local industries The amount of wealth destruction happening under "that evil red headed bitch and her toxic green slime" is astounding and eventually we will end up in another great depression if things keep heading this way just like America is and will worsen in the years to come All part of the elites plan i guess, looks like Thomas Jefferson's predictions were spot on: "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent they conquered."
The USA is exporting inflation all over the world and is facing a hyperinflation nationally. I wonder how much inflation will reach our shores and whether its best to hold onto property or sell it and be cashed up in the event of a powerful recession.
I understand people get all patriotic about foreigners buying our land but seriously? no wonder people have this distinction of 'us' and 'them'. Very xenophobic and short sighted. It would be far worse if I as an individual had a farm that I wanted to sell. No Aussies will/can buy it because we aren't interested/broke as a 2 legged stool. I can sell it overseas to a chinese man, an american man, a polish woman, or an iraqi woman etc it doesn't matter. If then the gubbermint steps in and says, no you can't do this; how fair is that??? I have to keep my farm or sell it at a massive discount just because the gubbermint thinks it can dictate who or where I sell too. So i just walk away from it and the jobs for 20 people on the farm go as well, plus we now have to import more food into our country to cover the difference. Contrast that with a foreigner buying it. 1) I get my capital back and can go retire/do whatever I want/ pursue other investments 2) the people get to keep their jobs. 3) More food grown domestically of a higher quality and we don't have to import as much. its a win win and a freaking win. and besides, if the gubbermint ever did decide that dey foreigners were evil and went to war with them or something silly, it is not like they can take the farmland back home with them. It just gets nationalised. I am sorry about this but it is honestly this protectionist, isolationist attitude of so many people in the world today (particularly westerners) that is the cause of so much tension, angst and conflict that we see. 'DEY TOOK OUR JOBS!!'. If we are ever to move forward as a society we have to move away from this line of thinking, and of course the MSM propagates this with us and them and all terrorists are muslim (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/os...rs-behring-breivik-32-nationalist-hated-islam) and that is just a recent example from today no less. We have shows on tv with border protection and sea patrol protecting us from evil and harm. How does a government stay in power? It justifies its position by conjuring up enemies and threats so that the people feel that they need the government. Has their ever been a time when we were not at threat from something or someone? "Keep the people afraid and they shall not rebell". Another quote from Jefferson for you also: "When the government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny." Thomas Jefferson (17431826) </rant>
And just let them have our jobs so that we can show how civilised, righteous and peaceful we are right? The fat cats won't complain, they'd be the ones to gain the most. I'd rather we work to become self sufficient and improve our country from the inside rather than expand and play the globalisation game (which we will lose and are losing). We should be focusing on conserving what we have - yes that means being protectionist. This planet is gonna be facing food shortages and we should be glad that our population ain't that large at the moment. How about we keep it that way? Also, in the example you gave, and supposing we have isolated ourselves from the global economy, then chances are that your farm would be valued at it's real price, rather than a price influenced by foreign investors. Their activities affect our market prices. Without them we'd be seeing different prices across the country. The line of thinking we should be taking to forward our society is to live within our means. Solving problems by needing to look outside our country is lazy (i.e. non-productive!) and is simply driven by greed. e.g. Got nuclear waste? Just ship it offshore. Need workers? Bring them from other countries. Short on food? Import. We are wasteful and lack strategy.
jnkmbx said Agree - we need to be more self sufficient AND we need to support our farmers more because once they leave the land their life time of knowledge about that land is lost and future agricultural production could be lost - we never think about the future! I believe things could change in the future from our 'dig everything up out of the ground and export it for short term gains' mentality back to 'we have to look after the soil and land because in the end food is more important for our long term survival.
The Aussie dollar is backed by the US dollar. OZ is "less worse". In a way- from what I hear about your taxation- OZ is worse... in that they cram taxes and fees at you in eye popping ways. Bouncing back from the depression will be easier in OZ. I am pretty sure of that.
