Could 2010 be the last of the numi Pandas?

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by 25Grizzlies, Oct 17, 2011.

  1. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    I'd like to start a thread and hear opinions on whether or not, going forward, people on this forum think that silver Pandas will still be of numismatic value. With a maximum mintage of 3 million for the 2011 series (275% increase on the 2010's) Fishball has correctly stated this is now a whopping 6 million. Will they become more aligned with ASE's, Maples and Kookaburras and therefore priced accordingly? I think the Chinese mint is cashing in on Panda popularity now, could 2010 really be the last year that numismatic properties apply?
     
  2. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Looks that way. They are pumping out way too many 'Commemorative' Pandas now and 2011 mintage is 6 million, which is massive.

    Reminds me of Perth Mint and their excessive use of proof coins, privy kooks etc

    That said, 2011 Panda will still outperform 2021 Panda ;)
     
  3. Dandan

    Dandan New Member

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    I kinda woke up to this recently. I'm picking off the cheapest slabbed 2010's I can find now.
    One day far into he future when the panda popularity wanes and is forgotten they may mint fewer and the panda ride will begin once again
     
  4. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Yeah fish, I like the older comms but now, I'm not so sure. It's 6 million now?! I must've had old figures, wow that's huge... yeah man the pumps are running overtime. Definitely food for thought, the environment is adapting. I'm gonna keep targeting the older rarer ones I think. Good point you make about the Perth mint stuff, I made a mistake collecting some of those series, ain't done a thing however they MAY have there day at some unforseen point in the future.

    Off thread here but thought I'd share this little silver story with you all. I went to the SS meet yesterday in Melbourne, sold a few sovs and bars which was good. I wanted to sell my 2oz BU series 1 dragon and rabbit, first 2 coins of the series. I paid a bit for them originally thought they must be collectables was asking 280 for the dragon, 220 for the rabbit. The guy told me that in the last 2 months he had bought a 2000 2oz proof dragon, box and coa for $200.00. $200.00?! I asked incredulous. I was astounded that noone got my drift. The guy said oh oh the dude he bought it from bought it cheap so he still made a profit. I said "that;s not the point! YOU bought it cheap too!! That's the point!!!"

    May we continue to have our eyes opened to opportunities wherever they may be.
     
  5. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    lol I bought a fair few lunar s1 proofs for $100 on here a few months back, nobody wanted them after the crash from 50 -> 31.

    Now nobody's selling the goat s1 proof even for $200+

    Anyway, 2011 Pandas cost the same as Koalas so I would rather have a panda than a koala as generic bullion coin.

    Any numismatic gain will be a bonus.

    I don't expect the 2011 panda to outperform the mirrored 2000 panda and nobody should either (at least in the short term) ;)
     
  6. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Yeah Dan, could be a very wise move, I'll be looking to secure a few 10's myself soon... not too worried about slabbing though.
     
  7. 940palmtx

    940palmtx New Member

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    IMO, they will become like ASEs. Yes there are people who will still 'collect' them just as people collect eagles and koalas but even with China's population, I can't imagine pandas being very 'collectable' with mufti-million mintage figures.
    Though the counter-point is that demand will always supersede supply. There a many coins with mintage of 2500, 5000, 20,000 that aren't very collectible because there is such limited demand. Only time will tell and my crystal ball has been broken for a long, long time :)
     
  8. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    +1... got a sheet of 30 stashed away myself ;)

    The 2007 are also quite cheap, might be worthwhile stacking a few sheets ($78-88 depending how bulk you buy).
     
  9. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    Interesting thread 25grizzlies

    Yes I have to agree that the 2010 is the last year of the numismatic panda :(

    I was ok (ok not happy) with the original planned 3 million but once it was announced that the mintage was increased to 6 million I was disappointed and that was my first thought the Chinese panda numismatic coin is a thing of the past.

    I actually think that in the future, even the 2011 will have some numismatic value based on its population compared to other bullion coins. The only reason I collect a few of these is that they are part of a collection and that's about it. I do feel that 5 years for now the 2011 will still sell at a premium, far above an ASE or maple just based on the population ratios posted recently by yennus.

    Dandan and many others collecting bargain 2010's will reap some nice premiums in just a few years I believe.

    I also feel that this panda mintage increase going forward exponentially increases the value of older, low mintage years.
    Although the commemorative pandas will have six new coins this year, I feel it is really no more than some of the years past and since their mintage is typically 20,000 to 30,000 coins these may actually increase in demand as collectors may flock to them in place of the high mintage coins of that year. As a collector I do buy the commemoratives for collecting purposes but I have seen these maintain and even increase in value over the years so as long as the mintage remains low on these I would be a buyer.
     
  10. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    A couple of points.

    ASE design never changes.

    ASE mintage was massive to start with.

    The 2011 Panda is a unique beast, it provides exposure to the previously secluded Panda series while not negatively affecting the prices of previous years due to different designs.

    Without the 2011 Panda being so common, the previous year Pandas would probably have been ignored as nobody would know about them.

    The 2011 itself will probably suffer from being bulk minted and appreciate less than the previous years, but the previous years have gained significant exposure and will become more 'collectable'.
     
  11. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    ;)
     
  12. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    No 2011 had better even LOOK at my mirrored 2000 in that way. EVER!
     
  13. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Who knows?
    Mintage number not the only factor for premium, otherwise older panda prices would be different as they are now.
    6 million is massive, but most of them sold locally with higher premium. Will they sell it cheaper on the local secondary market when only every 250 Chinese can have one?
    Australia made 36 million round 50 cents and now some selling like that
    http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/1966-50c...150663888568?pt=AU_Coins2&hash=item2314447eb8
     
  14. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    This is the point I was driving at... well said!
     
  15. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    I haven't seen the mintage figures for the 2011 commemoratives, where is your source Comeaux? If they stay around 20,000 to 30,000 then yes they certainly could be a good buy still. Thanks for bringing them to my attention, another win for the SS Panda forum! ;)
     
  16. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    They have significantly upped the issue prices on these commemoratives, it is cheaper to buy 2005-2009 Commemorative Pandas in general than it is to purchase the special ones minted in 2011.

    I am avoiding all of the 2011 special issues including but not restricted to Xi'an Horticultural, Beijing-Shanghai hispeed rail etc. Too overpriced ($1500+ for Gold/Silver set) and getting a bit meaningless since they commemorate everything that moves... next it'll be Chairman Mao's dog taking a shit there'll be a coin for it. No thanks ;)

    I bought the 2009 30th Anniversary Commemorative set, 10k mintage, still below $1000 and has the best design :lol:
     
  17. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    25grizzlies the mintage numbers are listed at the china gold corp site and many other sites as well as on the COA's ... typically those dealers selling them also post the mintages as well.

    From what I see ... there has not been a huge amount of the commemoratives available, especially certain years. I called Panda America looking for some to close gaps in my collection and they said "good luck finding it" ... it's just a matter of preference is all. I'm greedy ... I want every panda I can get my hands on that I do not currently own ! :D

    Everyone has their opinion on them but I add them to my collection as for the price ... IMO $200 for a coin minatge of 20,000 is much more worth a $45 coin with a mintage of 6 million.

    I think it may have been posted on the forum somewhere but if not I will upload a sheet with all the commemoratives and their relative mintages.

    I do agree with fishball as to the price of the two coin sets ... I beleive these are way overpriced but I dont mind buying the single silver coin of each commemorative.
     
  18. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Chairman Mao's dog taking a shit?! :lol: Thanks for the giggle, I'll be thinking on THAT design for awhile.

    I guess that's kind of thread related ha ha
     
  19. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Agree with everything you say here C, thanks!
     
  20. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    Very good point that is relevant to possibly 2011 maintaining numismatic value in the future ! :)
     

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