Could 2010 be the last of the numi Pandas?

The Panda "Price V Year" graph for BU coins would make for interesting viewing. Anyone have that ?

 

Wow this is a fascinating post! I wish I woke up earlier to read this!

Top stuff Panda people!

 

Yep, 2011s may continue to trade a bit higher than spot value, but they won't be at multiples of spot value.

 

Yeah, 2010s could be the last of the big performing numismatic Pandas... but even then, I do think the 2011s will appreciate above spot.

Demand is up, and supply is still relatively low.

By the time 2021 kicks around, if the world has not ended (which I'm thinking it won't), I'm sure these 2011s will be much more valuable

 

Here is a chart on why I think 2011s will continue to have a premium above spot silver and standard bullion.



Yes, even though there are 6million of these bears around... Compare it to the amount of ASEs that were produced in 2009, it is still a very small fraction of what was produced then (and would be an even smaller fraction to how many more ASEs were produced in 2011).

As long as demand continues to grow for silver, demand for Pandas is likely to be strong. Demand and supply, demand and supply.... Panda demand is growing, supply is not keeping pace with demand (at just 6million ounces, it cannot possibly be enough). Hence premiums in 2011s are likely to develop too.

But I definitely agree with the general consensus, 2010s are likely to outperform the 2011s by a large margin, and are likely to be the last truly numismatic Panda. There is an exception to that statement of course, and those would be the commemorative 2011 Pandas (like the Shanghai-BeiJing High Speed Train, Aviaton, Xian Horticulture, etc).

Here are my numbers:
2009 ASE 30,459,000
2009 Panda 600,000
2010 Panda 1,500,000
2011 Panda 6,000,000

 

The only 2011 ASEs that will ever have a premium are the 70s and maybe the 69s with all that Early Release, First Strike silly nonsense.
I can see the same with the 2011 Pandas, except a raw panda will carry a larger premium, not so much from demand but because dealers will just charge more. It won't be a spoken collusion, more the nature of the beast. Anybody who wants a 2011 Panda will have to pay a little more over spot simply because that'll be how dealers have them priced. Also, many people will buy multiples speculating that prices will rise and if a enough people do that then it will become a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

I have been watching the 2011 pandas at Gainesville for a while. Currently they are out of stock, but not so many days ago they were selling them at $7.50 over spot. Now I just checked at apmex, and they are much higher over premium. Even if you get as many as 600, you have to pay $10.00 over premium, and in small quantities their premium is $12.50!

Is this the start of the "numismification" of the 2011?

 

Soon

I don't think it will be long before the 2011s are sold out, and the 2012s come rolling in their place

Enter higher priced 2011s

 

I'm actually hangin to see the 2012's. Can we see the new design anywhere yet?

 

Not yet, if it gets leaked before the end of the year the first places you'll see it would be here or CCF

I guess the Chinese gov is better at hiding secrets than Perth Mint.

 

The 4th Chinese Panda Commemorative coin of 2011 "60th anniversary of the National Committee of Chinese Financial Workers' Union" with a mintage of 30,000 should be released very soon.

 

What are the other ones and who do I have to shoot, I mean sleep with to get one?

 

Probably yennus

 

In that case maybe I should PM a pic of my wife instead :lol:

 

Ahahah... there is no need to shoot or sleep with me... merely ask and I shall do my best to provide

ahahaha... Panda people are friendly people... not desperate or promiscuous

That is unfortunately one problem that real Pandas face... not promiscuous enough... they need to be coaxed into making cubs.

Pictures of wives featuring Pandas are always welcome Comeaux set the precedent for that

 

who needs promiscuity when you have duplication :lol:

 

I fixed the graph yennus:


I know your point was Panda vs standard bullion, but couldn't resist.

 

haha... no probs ...

Don't forget the Kooks and Masterpieces in Silver too!

Some Masterpieces in Silver are less than 20,000set!

[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_2010annualmintages.jpg][/imgz]

http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...1s-and-or-2010s-and-shopping-in-shanghai.html

 

Mintage:
The mintage of 1.5million Pandas sounds huge to our Western ears, but to the Chinese, it still means that only a few people can ever hope to own one.

<humor: In China people rarely compliment each other saying "You are one in a million" ... because that naturally leads towards there being at least another 1400 people just like you>


1,400,000,000 Chinese; 1,500,000 Pandas = 1 Panda per 933 people.
22,000,000 Australians; 300,000 Dragons = 1 Dragon per 73 people.

I'm not a big believer in low mintages automatically turning into high profits... mainly because there are plenty of low mintage series that don't generate profits (e.g. Australian Masterpieces in Silver, some fewer than 20,000 sets, and yet they sell below spot often).

 

I am a big supporter of demand driving markets over supply. Yes supply matters, but it matters least!
I know of coins with 2500 or 5000 that sell for the same as when they came out. If supply mattered much they'd be thousand dollar coins, but they're not...why? Little if any demand. I have a feeling there are several if not many people sitting on thousands of 2011s, just waiting for a few years then selling. I would, I'd buy all I could. I once thought the 2011s would never be numismatics, but I like to allow facts to sway my opinions, so now I believe they will. It'll just take a couple years.