Cobar (CCU)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by gelxi, Apr 23, 2013.

  1. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    Can't find the existing Cobar (CCU) thread. Where is it? :)

    Is anyone else anticipating a growth in production figures being announced soon by Cobar? I sure hope to see an up-trend in production figures in terms of Moz even before the ball mill is due in July, it will show that this is a company that is a fighter amidst all the challenges of cementing itself as a producer. End of week will be when Q3 figures will be due.

    Anyone else looking forward to read their Q3 figures?
     
  2. whinfell

    whinfell Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  3. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    All those memories ....... gone!
     
  4. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    Maybe it's a sign - a new trend starts now ;)
     
  5. J-Money

    J-Money New Member

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    Just in time for the new CR!
     
  6. AngloSaxon

    AngloSaxon Active Member

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    Well the market is open, trading halt has ended and the value of CCU has plunged again. Can anyone comment on the 'Entitlement Offer - Cleansing Notice' announcement in particular and what it means for retail investors.
     
  7. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    down 28% eekk!
     
  8. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    Ouch! just got back from a meeting and I saw this plunge... I'm gonna spend some time to read through and analyze what's impacted with the heap of announcements. Not looking good.
     
  9. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    30% down day, the question now is is it worthless? If no, what is a good entry point. Still see a drop in PMs coming and that will hit
     
  10. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Projected production costs for next quarter $8m +

    Cash in treasury - $2m

    add projected revenue to $2m (ounces produced @ hedge price)

    = not looking like a sustainable situation with production & crushing issues


    Also less risky companies to invest in looking at the materials sector. So might be hard to find buyers at the present moment.

    I sold everything in the 20s and 30s - tough loss but have cash to reinvest somewhere else now

    Im looking/waiting for some oil stocks to bottom
     
  11. Ouch

    Ouch Active Member

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    2 for 5 renounceable rights at 13cents which is why the price dropped to that level.
     
  12. AngloSaxon

    AngloSaxon Active Member

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    Yeah that's where it will stay until the rights offer is concluded, I imagine.
     
  13. AngloSaxon

    AngloSaxon Active Member

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    I was considering whether Magna would end up being the majority shareholder, and here we are in the investor presentation 'Risk Factors' page:

    'Potential change in ownership

    Shareholders should be aware that the Entitlement Offer, in particular the underwriting arrangements relating to the Entitlement Offer, may result in Magna potentially increasing its relevant interest in the voting shares of the Company from 19% before the Entitlement Offer to up to a maximum of 42%. In the event that Magna's percentage shareholding in the Company is sufficiently large the Company may lose the opportunity to obtain a substantial takeover premium for its shares in any potential change of control context.'
     
  14. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    I have read through all released docs and nothing has changed my plan to hold on to this stock long term - it is obvious the biggest issue they are facing are the oversized ore and although the negative effect of it has been more than expected, it is nothing that a decent ball mill cannot fix. The failings of this company have been that they over-promised on targets early on, but it seems to me that they have been truthful about the issues that they have been facing recently, and are taking the right measures to remedy the issues. Will now just hold tight and wait to see how they perform after the ball mill has been installed in July.
     
  15. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well you might be lucky and this will be an exception but CCU conforms to a very strong pattern for this sector of the stockmarket.

    They can't make any money however....

    ... The problem has been identified and will be resolved by some measure that is now being put into effect

    Just hang on subscribe to this new capital raising and the future will be great. Forget the money you've lost, think of the money you'll make. Don't miss out on our special fix-it plan at a special once-off never to be repeated price.

    And we've got rid of another big problem. The manager who should have foreseen all this. We've booted him out with a golden parachute and installed someone who won't make any future mistakes with this wonderful shareholder enriching natural resource that I can't believe today we are able top offer to you at this bargain price

    And look you'd better subscribe or you'll not only be diluted, you'll run the risk of this company being taken over by the underwriter at a ridiculous price because he could get to a majority position.

    And don't forget this company is one of the few opportunities to make a leveraged investment in silver, so don't delay, call now our operators are waiting.
     
  16. Angavar

    Angavar Member

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    gelxi, just make sure you have a good look at short-term revenue and costs. A company can still collapse with rosy long-term forecasts.

    The entitlement offer will raise $12.2m + $5.1m from closing hedges. They seem to be setting aside $16.8m for debt with $3m of working capital. I thought that slide was a bit ambiguous, but it doesn't look like today's announcements leave them with much extra breathing room.

    Debt repayments deferred until December and managing director leaves - it feels a little dire to me. I don't have shares in this, but have been burnt in similar situations in the past.
     
  17. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Magna is a singapore investment firm

    They have a tendancy to hold companies hostage when they own over 50% (at least some of the Chinese ones do)
     
  18. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    Thanks guys for sharing your experience. It gives me more perspective on what kind of risk I am taking on! It does not look rosey in the short term, I agree - and that is exactly the risk I am taking, in that the company can ride out the short term squeeze. I'll also closely monitor the price of silver too, as the recent drop is one of the major reasons why I got in recently.
     
  19. rbaggio

    rbaggio Active Member Silver Stacker

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    CCU down another 6% in early trade, even with the big jump in spot overnight

    I think this stock is broken
     
  20. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    It's true today it performed badly today among local silver miners.
    SVL +14.7%
    ARD No change
    AYN Suspended
    CCU -9.3%
     

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