CHINESE COINS _ Here is a very compelling reason to grade them SOON !

Guys ... I just read this post by SANDAC at CCF who is EXTREMELY Knowledgeable in Chinese numismatics and has done extensive research ... here is his post, it is worth a read.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3689.60

Here is the post from SANDAC ...

At the risk of restarting an all-out thermal nuclear war on OMP vs slab, I want to put down a couple thoughts that were in the back of my head for a few months now. They are the result of my disappointment with NGC in grading the more valuable Imperial/Republic coins.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4270.0

Having some time to think about this, I felt the problem is due to three factors:
1. NGC's money-back gurantee
2. High value of the coins, if graded genuine mint state
3. many recent sophiscated fakes
Because of these factors NGC is reluctant to assign a MS grade to a high value coin for the tiny fee of $60 (which they've already increased from the $35 fee a year back). They would assume a large $$$ liability if the coin was found to be a high-tech forgery.

Now go back 10 years to when I purchased these coins. NGC still have its gurantee, but the coins
were not expensive then, and because of that, there were not many sophiscated fakes. So had I submitted these coins 10 years ago, it is quite likely they'll receive definitive and good grades. If I am somehow able to establish the pedigree of these coins and prove to the NGC grader that these coins were purchased 10 years back, I think the odd of these coins receive a definitive grade are also improved.

So what has all this to do with MCC? some of the coins I purchase 10 years back were the 2000 frosted Panda at 2x bullion price. I'm sure I'll have no problem getting them graded at that time,
but now that they are 15x bullion price, there are several reports by the forum members that they are getting the "Questionable Authenticity" body bag from of the same batch of coins that didn't have any problems before. Somehow NGC is unable, or more likely unwilling, to grade these coins and therefore assume the liability. So it is happening now already with a few selected MCC coins.

Now let us roll forward 10 years. If badon and many CCF members' prediction are correct and we have the MISFORTUNE of 10x rise in MCC coin price, then it is "game on" for the forgers, and some of the forgery will be very very good. We'll find ourselves in the same situation like today's expensive Imperial/Republic coins. Either NGC is unwilling to grade them or the grading cost will go thru the roof, probably both.

Let me throw another consideration into the mix. Many of you know I'm actively researching the
varieties of Historical Figures. There are numerous variation likely resulted from sloppy polishing of the die. These variation are not limited to the HF series, it is every where I looked. Normally there are an abundance of coins, price and submission rise slowly so NGC can study and catch up with these varieties gradually. Oh, but wait, the coin supply are actually very limited, nobody even care about varieties until Peter Anthony wrote his influential Panda book a couple years back, and Panda price simply exploded since. NGC is not ready for this. So let say an expensive Pagoda set showed up today and they are not exactly like the previous set, do you suppose NGC will grade them as a different variety of Pagoda and take on the $4500 liability? No, it is a lot more sensible to not take the $16.50x4 grading fee and return them as "questionable authenticity". So if you have an expensive rare variety (or have an unusual variety that you don't realize and NGC don't recognize) and waited 10 years to send it in, you may not be happy with the answer.

So I guess you know which camp I'm in. I say grade them and grade them NOW. The grading fee is going to go up faster than inflation, and in the future NGC/PCGS may be unwilling to grade even with a higher grading fee. So what do I do with my numerous HF varieties? I send them in immediately to establish their pedigree as known varieties while NGC is still willing and the fee is still low. Yes, $22.50 NCS/NGC rising to $26.50 is still dirt cheap and it won't last.

OK, I have my bullet-proof radiation suit on, so flame away!

 

Yeah saw that post by SANDAC, quite an accurate assessment imo. The comparison between MCC and Imperial coins is a good one.

There were a few guys on CCF who sent in mirrored 2000 pandas to be graded and got them back as 'questionable' even though they were legit.

It sucks. No more OMP too.

This is why where possible I am buying graded but sometimes there are no graded coins so I resort to OMP because I WANT THAT COIN. (I also buy OMP for other reasons though).

Recently had to scour the interwebs to complete a graded set... population < 10 doesn't help :lol:

 

Just saying, if you are buying graded coins now, perhaps you should look at those graded after NGC tightened the grading.

For Imperial/Republic coins, dealers have noted PCGS has tightened up the grading of old silver dollar since 2010, and looks like collectors are paying premium for those coins. They don't just accept the numerical grading assigned by the TPG.

 

In my opinion, the problem as you stated quite clearly is many recent sophisticated and high-tech forgeries. Would it not turn off potential buyers on coins that are so highly valued but with such good forgeries that it is possible to scare even professional graders (I know I am) thus limiting the potential liquidity. And even if you had your coins graded it would be hard for me to purchase these coins, firstly holders and coins in holders can and have been consistently faked or substituted, secondly if graders would have a hard time with sophisticated forgeries I feel that I would not have a hope of detecting these forgeries and lastly, with the advancement of forged copies it could be reasonable to assume that maybe a small percentage could get passed and slabbed by graders even due to human error (It would worry me to no end especially on the higher end pandas).

 

Although I respect your viewpoint ... I Don't think your statement is valid as there are 100's (possibly thousands) of numismatics valued at much more that are counterfeited daily ... not just Chinese Coins

 

That is true. As i am not a panda expert like you this is my concern, and probably for most regular stackers. I guess it is also perception as you would have to admit most fake anything comes from China.

 

Anything of high value will have sophisticated and high-tech forgeries. If Perth Mint lunars end up being famous they will be forged too. (Edit: Actually maples & Scottsdale bars are forged already... and those Pan Am bars I think).

As for potential buyers, I don't really care about the majority of people. To me, the numismatic game is not about liquidity, if you want liquidity I suggest ETPMAG.

The numismatic game is about profits, massive profits. There are no shortage of intelligent and saavy buyers out there who are willing to buy Chinese Coins.

The coin holders which you might have heard spannermonkey say get faked are not PCGS nor NGC. They are likely to be crappy companies with a crap reputation and shoddy holders/grading systems. When a million dollar coin is entrusted within an NGC holder, I feel confident that my NGC slabs are the real deal.

I have yet to see a fake PCGS/NGC slabbed Panda.

 

Back in September/October of last year I made a post at CCF about the fact that NGC was indeed scrutinizing MCC much more closely and it got a sort of "cold" reception of disbelief back then but I'm glad to see that one of the more recognized & knowledgeable members "Panda Halves" remembered it and acknowledged the validity of it

WOW I'm very glad now that the majority of what I have is authenticated & graded 69 NGC is really going to start looking VERY discriminately at ALL MCC's

It's not that they cannot detect the fakes, it will just be more time consuming and difficult to do so.

It has everything to do with their guarantee, the price explosion of MCC's and the "Super Counterfeits" that are starting to emerge, will persist and get even better.

 

Good points fishball and most people who collect graded numismatics whether it is Chinese Pandas or Morgan Dollars knows what they are buying and how to validate coin and the holder regardless if it is PCGS or NGC.

Anyone can go to NGC and PCGS at anytime and do some research ... their are 100's of coins listed there and many articles written almost daily about the latest "fakes" and I have not seen any of them referencing Chinese Pandas

 

What makes them so "super"?

 

It's just a name lol.

 

They used to come in boxes now they come with capes !

 

Look at the sentence structure, does not seem like a name to me.

 

Sorry don't see it; it's still just a name to me.

 

What concerns me is if the counterfeits and trouble with getting coins graded/authenticated will keep people from entering the market. It's often discussed how young the MCC market is, yet there are already so many people who refuse to get into MCCs because of the counterfeits. If counterfeits increase in quality and variety as the market ages, I wonder if it will inflict more/continued damage on the market.

 

ehehe I was just kidding about the "capes" !

"Super Counterfeits" are those that are very hard to detect as they are sometimes produced with the exact metal (silver, gold, etc) in the same purity, weight and dimensions as the original coin.

This is typically done with coins that sell for several $1,000's of dollars.

The counterfeiters don't care if the coin is made with an ounce of gold if it can be sold for $15,000

The fakes can always be detected although it takes more time and resources to do so as the counterfeiters do not have the original dies and they produce their dies from the coin itself which in turn does not produce a strike with the elaborate detail that is revealed on the authentic coin.

It's counterfeits like this that have grading companies increasing their fees to cover the resources required to detect these types of counterfeits. Also to cover the risk associated with their "guarantee" as well. I know the NGC guarantee is excellent because I have used it.

 

Collectors will always be there in MCC's just like all other numismatics that are counterfeited.

Chinese Coins are not the most valuable coins or items counterfeited there are thousands of valuable items that are counterfeited every year. The US $100 bill is probably one of the most counterfeited items and it is done so to the tune of "BILLIONS" every year.

All I see is that grading will become more relevant (as I have always maintained) and that people will be more apprehensive about buying MCC's in OMP that are of high value such as over $5,000

I don't think Chinese Coins valued at less than $5,000 will ever be "super counterfeits" those will be the coins in the five figures no worries !

 

In regards to the presence of fakes destroying or reducing a market... This isn't a good theory to work under... it can be demonstrated that despite a multitude of fakes, genuine coins maintain their prices. This doesn't just apply to Pandas, but to other numismatic coins too. E.g. Despite some excellent counterfeits of the 1930 Penny, people are still willing to pay top dollar for a bronze coin.


Source: http://www.thesandpit.net/coinshop/1930_penny.html

So far the 1930 Penny has lasted 82 years, without 'super' fakes destroying the market.

The amount of detail that goes into making a coin that is as detailed and exquisite as a Panda, makes the possibility of a "Super fake Panda" incredibly slim.

If the counterfeiters can't fake a coin that hasn't changed design for over 80years, I'm fairly sure there is something incredibly difficult behind faking Pandas.

Plus, if a 'super' fake were to be made, it's unlikely to be a numismatic coin (since it is easy to detect a flood of rare coins onto the market)... it's more likely to be bullion coins with unchanging designs, since a flood of these would be imperceptible to the market.

E.g. 10,000 1930 superfake Pennies (or 2000 Mirrored Pandas) would be hard to distribute. 10,000 superfake ASEs or Maples would distribute themselves among the population very quickly.

 

But back to the topic regarding grading Pandas... yeah, I think now is a good time to start grading my Pandas. I think the ability to play with my bears with little risk of damaging them is a big motivator

There is also little doubt that Graded Pandas (NGC especially) sell for more.

 

I am always interested in coins and banknotes.

I remembered when I was a kid someone offered to sell me few pieces of old China coins and immediately other people told me there were fakes.

When I grew a bit older, I started asking people who collect old China coins, they told me there are a lot of fakes.

Then I forget about old China coins for a very long time, until many years after I started working.

There was a coin shop in my town. I never visited them for the first 30 years of my life though I knew their existence when I was 6 years old. They advertised in the newspaper every day.

Finally one day I decided to visit them. That was about 8 years ago. First visit I brought some banknotes to the owner for his opinion. He told me all my banknotes were washed. I was disheartened and nearly cry. I asked him how and where can I learn so I will not be cheated again. He told me nobody will teach me, as this is secret of the trade.

Since then I started buying some banknotes from him, and also spend a lot of time talking to him. He was a lonely man and only love talking about coins and banknotes.

One day he was looking at an old China coin catalog, that must be a very old book. He was not so keen in sharing his knowledge about old China coins with me. He keep saying there are a lot of fakes in the market.

So again I have to bury the idea of getting into old China coins.

One year later he was murdered by one of his customer. The shop has never opened since then.

Not too long after that, I met an old collector with very impressive banknotes collection. I asked him about coins. He was not happy and keep saying coins are bad.

Again. There are tons of fake and coins are bad.

Few years ago, in my search information about old China coins, I came across some joker who talk all the bad things about NGC/PCGS/ANACS. He accused these TPG to certify fake coins and these coins were sold through large auction house. (Now I can confirm he is indeed a joker. He sells only fake raw coins.)

After reading that I decided to give up on old China coins. I mean after more than 30 years of searching I still have not found the answer.

Last year October when I was searching for some info on a Hong Kong coin I stumbled upon majesticrarities website, from there I came to know CCF.

CCF brings back my hope on old China coins. I bought my very first old China coin in January. It is graded by PCGS.

I must admit, with all the "fake" alert I have been hearing for the past 30+ years, I was very nervous with the coin. I look at the coin under 40x magnification for a very long time.

Do I still worry? Yes. It is not the fake coins that is damaging. It is the "fake" alert that is killing.

I am slowly learn to overcome the fear and buy the graded old China coins from trusted sources.

If you think you like coins, go ahead and buy it. What are the chances of you buying a fake NGC graded panda for $100 from a trusted source? ZERO!!!

If you care, tell people where the trusted sources are. Tell them how to look for a good genuine coin.

Don't be another person who spread the "fake" alert.