I have a speculation: the price of silver will continue to be hammered until the mines go bankrupt/get bought out by players in the BRICS alliance - I'm thinking the ASEA - but it could be China alone too since they lots more silver in their manufacturing industries. The price will continue to be hacked away at so the East can continue to gobble up all the bullion then all the infrastructure. Once the mines have been transferred to the BRICS for pennies on the dollar, jult like JP Morgan and half of Chicago, and oh, that pesky cattle ranch in Nevada, and, whatever else has slipped under the public's radar, THEN the price of silver will begin its next long term bull trend. Got China?
I'd like to know where to research mine acquisitions. How does one find out which mines are key and their financial status and who's buying them? The COMEX is going to become irrelevant very soon since Singapore and Shanghai can't naked short. An overnight revaluation would be the nail in the coffin. The Chinese are walking into a fire sale with a gold-backed budget. Surely they don't want to tumble the dollar until they've met their budget. Since the development fund has only about $200 billion I say it's a slow burn into early next year. Then one Monday morning, gold is at $2400 with no offer.
I've been reading a few pundits lately who say that, basically, gold will double overnight and then the world will resume. I'm not sure of triggers but it was something to do with the forthcoming SDR/reserve currency ideas. If they want to get a lot of private gold on the market it would be a good move!!
I think silver has far more upside than gold. Gold is still overvalued in my opinion. Silver could still fall a few dollars over the next several months, but when it starts rising again, then i think we'll see it outpace gold.
Try the Silver Institute, there's quite a bit of good info there or at least it will give you a start point. https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/silver-production/
the next target for gobble up would be those sweet European farms, who could not sell their produce to Russia, China would gladly buy them up and import their produce too and at the same time provide employments for their farmers.
So long as deflation is winning over inflation I think both gold and silver prices will continue to fall and money will continue to seek out the USD which will also suppress gold and silver prices further as Euro deflation looks to be more of the immient threat as Germany and the rest of the Eurozone continue to butt heads over QE. If/when inflation also falls in the US to about 1% then this level has always been seen as a trigger for further stimulus. You then have wildcards like Japan, China's real estate market, geopolitical threats and ebola in the mix. IMO 2015 is shaping to be a key year for the global economy and precious metals. It may not be reflected in the price until a little later (2016-2017) but the monetary decisions made by central bankers next year and deflation above all else will be key factors to watch next year. If the Fed has to reverse its tightening then it's basically saying to the world that the economy can not survive without QE which will ultimately will lead to a loss of confidence is fiat currency and a flight to tangible assets.
If you believe some people China and Russia are buying like crazy, gold and silver, I have a professor who's a China specialist who thinks in their case at least it is to do with their upcoming decoupling from a fixed rate dollar exchange. They're getting from both ends, with a fixed exchange the US feds money printing devalues the cash supply of their whole country AND devalues the debt they have bought. They can settle major deals for everything in yuan at the moment because x yuan = y dollars, they still want to be able to settle contacts in yuan when x yuan = z dollars where z is determined by whatever the hell the market thinks...The market being fickle they're making sure they have their gold and silver reserve ducks in a row so the market doesn't short them six ways from Sunday the day they make it happen. Interesting times we live in. I don't think there will be some overnight end to the USD as the world currency but I think things could start to return to the days of pre euro, things being sold and negotiated in all different currencies. Euro, yuan, dollar... things are going to get a lot more complicated and interesting. When everybody sees that some of the bigger economies are using silver to back their currencies, even as a minor adjunct to gold, I think it bodes very well. Even if that's all speculation that comes to nothing you can't deny the east has a mad apetite for PM, I think silver is a bargain in the mid term.
This wont happen anywhere in the world again most likely never but defiantly not in the next 100 years if you think you will see another silver / gold backed circulating currency you are smoking the same shit as SammySilver.
You are right CJester...no major country is stupid enough to return to a gold or silver backed currency. The vast majority of people in the US for example would scoff at the idea of a silver/gold backed currency to replace their current one. After all, imagine how that would affect most of their lives...it would be seen as disastrous...the credit card to Americans today is like heroine to a junkie.....you snatch it away and you will have serious problems with the credit card junkies....they will demand your head on a platter for sure. As to the next bull phase beginning in earnest, I think that will be in no sooner than 18 months. I see nothing currently that would account for a sooner reversal of the bear phase we are in now. In fact, I've been seeing reports of some new major finds of silver and gold and this article is pretty convincing in regards to miner's costs: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2573265-silver-can-trade-below-its-all-in-cost-of-production?ifp=0 .
I'm with SammySilver on some kind of gold backed currency. No way I believe all the big player central banks around the world are just hording as much gold in their vaults to sell at lower prices as some predict. Don't think so. When all the debts in the worlds needs to get paid one day, the countries with most Gold and Silver will come out the leaders. Until the Central Banks start selling their PM's, I'm keeping my stash and I'm stacking with any extra fiat I can get from my work.
Why would debts ever need to be repaid? They can inflated away in the worst case scenario. If major world economies move to a gold backed currency then it is likely they will no longer be major world economies and we'll be back to the days of buggy whips and steam.
And if the US runs up its debts to other nations even greater than the 34% of our total federal (same as national) debt today, which 1,000 next strongest countries combined are going to force the US to pay off its debts to them? Yeah, that's right....no group of countries has the ability to force the US to pay for its debts. The permabull claims that the rising US debt will be the undoing of the US dollar has little to no merit; I haven't seen a cogent argument posited of how exactly that theory would realistically play out....have you? Show me if you have. .
Seriously??? You really think that debts are no big deal???? Dream on. I'll just sit back and watch the fiasco unfold. Good luck with that.
Paying off debts is not the issue. New loans is, as long as the USD holds it's value then the printing is just a stealth tax. ATM the US citizens are too complacent / wealthy to care about a stealth tax.... that may change. If ever the USG has to take out loans in something other then USD watch out
The US holds possibly the best wild card of them all....it's called the US military and the US arsenal. Who's worried about a loan when you can leverage (by threat of force) others to give or loan to you what you want using the conditions you dictate? .
