Calling all Manipulation Theorists

Discussion in 'Silver' started by wrcmad, Aug 5, 2020.

  1. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Stackers!

    Well done to all those currently holding silver! Your time has finally arrived, and your patience has deservedly been rewarded. :)
    Some of you long-term holders may be breathing a sigh of relief!

    There has been a lot of conjecture regarding manipulation and suppression of the silver price over the years - mainly having fingers pointed at the futures (paper) market at being the cartel's tool of choice.

    Today seems the perfect day to pose this question to those who subscribe to the manipulation theory:

    Can you please explain silver's price ascent to multi-year highs in the last 24hrs on the back of the COMEX volume of 175,000 paper contracts - equivalent to 870 million oz's.... more than the whole of 2019 global mine production traded in a single day.
    And, given this data, I am curious how you celebrate the current price as a fair one? Or are you just pretending to believe it because it suits both your narrative, and your need to be right?
    :p

    Cheers!

    manipulation.jpg
     
  2. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have some questions to you of my own.

    Can the silver market be manipulated?
    Has the silver market been manipulated in the past?
    Do you think the silver market has the potential to be manipulated now?
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  4. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's a good thing. Theories need to be called out and when certain elements come to light, people need to look long and hard at what drives the market.
     
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  5. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Naughty!?
    After years of listening to the whining, I think it's a fair ask.
    I already know how I'd answer that question. ;)
    Are you suggesting I'll hear crickets? :D
     
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  6. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'd like to hear your definition of manipulation, too.
     
  7. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I know we have had our differences recently, but that statement just earned a lot of respect from me.
    It indicates someone I could have a productive conversation with. :)
     
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  8. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'll work on it.
    In the meantime, I'm hoping to get at least one reasonable response to my question.
    After all, there are hundreds of members here willing to tell me about manipulation when the price is falling.
    Otherwise, does it mean we can finally put the manipulation theory to bed?
     
  9. Karoi

    Karoi Active Member

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    Here’s a few random points in no particular order:

    A stock or commodity can be manipulated to rise or fall. The rate of manipulation may correspond to the amount of general volatility occurring at the time.
    JP Morgan amongst other big players have been charged with manipulation in the past.
    The paper to silver ratio (according to usdebtclock.org) is 171:1.

    I personally can’t help but think that it’s almost impossible for the silver AND gold prices to not be manipulated to some extent!
     
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  10. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well I think the markets have been managed in the past and certain banking entities have already been caught engaging in activities to push the price in a direction of their choosing - usually down.

    I think most markets are managed and for silver to be the exception, or free from manipulation, is wishful thinking IMO

    The fact that certain banking entities and hedge funds have the potential to place large sell orders, paves the way to potential manipulation. The question I've never been able to find answers to (other than conspiracy speculation) is why? Is it for profits? Or are there more sinister reasons? Or both?

    It is undeniable that silver been manipulated in the past. We've already discussed this before. Yet there are limitations to the manipulation potential, as you are aware, bona fide hedge exemptions allow certain entities to place larger positions than those bound by the CFTCs position limits. This means that a few banking entities and hedge funds will have more leverage to influence prices in one direction or the other, yet supply and demand fundamentals still exist.

    As I learnt from researching this area when we last discussed manipulation, the exemptions to the position limits does not mean that certain entities can place unlimited positions, they still require the physical metal in their "transparent holdings".

    This is a genuine question, why do you think it was 'necessary' to instate position limit exemptions in the first place? The CFTC claim it was to curtail manipulation. From memory the position limits were proposed in 2011 and instated in 2012.
    This was around the same time that UBS, Deutsche bank and others were engaging in questionable activity relating to "manipulation". They were co-operating together to place short positions at the same time to move the market and capitalise on the opportunity they created for themselves. Deutsche Bank released thousands of documents revealing this was the case.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
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  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    currency manipulation = intervention to give it stability
    money supply intervention = QE money
    running the printing press = electronic money expansion
    the market got fixed twice daily = orderly market
    manipulations that got covered up and covered up and covered up, buried and covered up
    warehouse full of silver/gold to released to the markets place, created contestable competition to warn speculator,
    if they go long, govt is ready to punished them
    people just work for paper
     
  12. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Careful.
    If you are referring to spoofing, then that does not constitute long-term price suppression.
    What's more, it doesn't constitute price manipulation either. It merely refers to spread widening.
    Only Zerotruth, or Seekingbrains would have you believe this is actually manipulation.

    That means absolutely nothing, as only the current month can be settled or delivered, and the current month usually holds a ratio of better than 1:4.
    All other forward month contracts serve as hedges, which is exactly the purpose the futures market is designed for. So, nothing to see here.
    Again, a COMEX fallacy brought to you by the Spin Doctors.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
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  13. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    I dont subscribe to the conspiracies many people present.

    but to answer your question.
    Yes silver has been manipulated in the past By the Hunt brothers in the 1970's.
    making the price go from $11 to $50 and finally allowing it to crash below the original $11.
    So technically it could be manipulated as its been proven by those guys it can be, you would need allot of cash todo it, but saying that there would definitely be funds big enough tobe able todo it if they wanted to.

    Again im not arguing for or against the current manipulation theory as I have no idea, Im not an insider in the accused firms unfortunately lol and neither is any one here on this forum (both those believers or non believers), so no one here would know definitively, its all theory on both sides.
    personally I dont care if it is or isnt.
    I take an agnostic position on this topic
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Silve is a commodity, fiat currencies are not. You can’t compare the two in order to argue that prices are manipulated.
     
  15. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Silver has been manipulated long term by a small army of retail investors who take delivery of the physical metal and hoard it in the hopes it drives a delivery shortage for professional futures traders.
     
  16. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    "Manipulation"?
    It's just frontrunning...
    In...
    and out...
    For those that don't get it:
    - buy after frontrun out,
    - sell after frontrun in.
    Sell gold/silver when propaganda fills the newspapers with recordhigh blabla.
    Buy it back when everybody ceased to talk about it.
    Since it's the former, take into account that some governments out there "guarantee" deposits only until a certain limit, that was communicated enough to forget a legal action against it.
    So make sure you have some places ready on forehand, for the money to go to / spreaded.
    And that no "social economy" is among these. :p
     
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  17. Arch Stanton

    Arch Stanton Well-Known Member

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    I have been manipulating as much physical as I can into my safe the last 7 years or so.
     
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  18. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeah, trading does not constitute manipulation. :)
     
  19. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Trading unbacked derivatives - futures and options, does.
    Look at an oil futures price some months ago. Even negative.
    Outside that, manipulation is not by trading, it's by blahblah.
     
  20. Karoi

    Karoi Active Member

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    Why?

    There are actually quite a few organisations and individuals who have made allegations of manipulation.
    Other organisations such as banks and governments inevitably deny it. They've never lied to us before, right?

    I agree that over-selling contracts doesn't necessarily constitute manipulation, however, I do find it questionable that even the current month ratio is more than 1:1 ;)
     

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