Best time to sell Q1 2021

Discussion in 'General Precious Metals Discussion' started by sammysilver, Jan 5, 2021.

  1. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    When shit hits the fan people will liquidate their tesla stock for 50% or less of current value because they'll have to buy 50-100% more expensive food and pay their rents. Look at the price of every single commodity over the last few months. Look at food price inflation.
     
  2. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    Just because CPI is low it does not mean inflation is low. Specially not for the poor who spend most of their money in housing and food, which are both getting more and more expensive.
    Another reason we don't have a higher CPI is because the world keeps getting more and more productive over time, so we should have deflation, which is good. So the inflation the central banks create just balances out with the deflation that we should have been always experiencing, just like it was back when currency was money.
     
  3. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    tesla is actually a good bet if you can get it at a much lower price but even 50% discount is still too expensive. I'd be more interested in SpaceX if it goes public. SpaceX is the most valuable company in the world. Even money can't buy you SpaceX because what they have achieved cannot be done using money. Jeff Bezos has been dumping his amazon shares to pump billions into Blue Origin with nothing to show.
     
  4. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    Yeah I agree completely. I would buy a bit of tesla 60% down from here, but only load up on it at a 80-100PE ratio. Anything over that is just ridiculous
     
  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The shit won't hit the fan. We'll put that to bed. Governments can print money until eternity. But we will experience recessionary economic conditions in the future.

    Recessions cause liquidity crises so the general trend is that assets are sold to meet debt obligations. So yep, in a recession you would expect assets to be sold off. But does it lead to inflation?

    Australia has experienced a number of recessions and periods of sustained slow growth over the past 50 years or so so it's important we look at how the inflation rate has responded to determine if your hypothesis holds true. I'll use this data here as it not only indicates recessionary periods, it also indicates downturns in the Oz economy even when we didn't have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

    Screen Shot 2021-01-14 at 6.26.40 pm.png

    So we'll take each shaded area and examine what the inflation rate was using data from https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/australia-historical-inflation-rate/

    1983: 10%
    1985: 6.7%
    1991: 3.2%
    2000: 4.5%
    2009: 1.9%

    and not included in the chart 2020: 2.1% (https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi?embed/forecast). In fact, Australia recorded it's biggest ever quarterly fall in inflation at the same time we entered a recession in the first half of 2020. So your hypothesis does not hold true. In fact the 2020 crisis has resulted in new found highs in asset classes such as stocks, and a surge in property prices. So if there was a liquidation of assets, it was quickly gobbled up by willing buyers.

    What data are you citing? Can't debate if you don't cite data.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2021
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Again you provide no source data for your position. You can't argue that CPI is low because the official statistics say so and then ignore the official inflation statistics just because it confirms your bias.

    The poor don't own assets, they're inconsequential to this debate around the trickling down of money when assets are sold.

    Again, where is the data you cite to support your argument?

    Here's some advice. I don't care of you follow it or not. Make sound investment decisions. You can only do this when you have all the information at your disposal in front of you. And when it comes to inflationary data and CPI, the only information available is the official statistics. ignore it at you peril.
     
  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Got bored after 3 minutes. I can't imagine he has anything meaningful to contribute. ;)

    You might have to spoon-feed me.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2021
  8. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    How does MMT deal with USD floating around outside the control of the US Government? What happens when the dollar loses reserve status to crypto/gold/yuan etc?
     
  9. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    The CPI is not the only information we have. If you look into the CPI it separates it by sections. Go through food and housing and you'll see the inflation... the way the CPI was engineered is to always make it seem lower than it actually is so the government can say everything is good.
    And how can you argue that the natural course is deflation? The world has had massive deflation for a long time, specially after the industrial revolution. Everything gets cheaper as we can make much more with less effort, more productivity, technology. So if we were supposed to have lets say a 2% deflation and we end up having 2.1% CPI it means we had 4.1% inflation. If we used real money deflation would be the natural course of things. And that would be good, people would save money and interest rates would be low without the central banks having to destroy the free market with the printing presses. How can you not agree with this if you're a PM enthusiast?
     
  10. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    This is what happens when the currency is money
     

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  11. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    This is what happened after the FED.
    Currency became toilet paper
     

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  12. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    When does the government ever do anything right? When did libertarians and big gov start holding hands?
     
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  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    It's no different than what we have and has failed thousands of times before.
    A new fancy name doesnt change anything.
    This is way over some peoples heads for some reason.
     
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  14. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    they must only be doing the Right things only lol
    well people since the zero minute, done only wrong...we are here today
    had it been done right just the for first minute, we will never be here
     
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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    MMT has nothing to say about it as far as I know.

    What are the Chinese going to do with all of their USD reserves for example? The only thing they can do is buy more US exports or US assets. Either way, that stimulates the US economy,

    No idea. They burn their USD reserves?
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2021
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mostly not. But it does have a choice about which path to choose, with some more preferable to others.

    They haven’t. I’m pretty sure I’ve made my position clear in the past so I’ll not go down that path again.

    Suffice to say there’s the future I yearn for, and the reality I think I’ve got a handle on. :)
     
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  17. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    A
    Are you kidding me? They are buying gold hand over fist. Russia has now more gold than dollars for the first time in quite a while aswell
     
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I’ve told you before. What makes you think I’m not an advocate if sound money?

    I just understand how the modern monetary system works. And it won’t end with excessive inflation.
     
  19. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    It hasn't, yet. Because ppl still think it's a reserve currency. When gold goes over 2100 and starts mooning the dollar will be under real attack and we will see how it unfolds.
     
  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So what? They’re wasting their money. Sovereign nations don’t need to hoard gold, they can print money at will.
     

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