Best time to sell Q1 2021

Discussion in 'General Precious Metals Discussion' started by sammysilver, Jan 5, 2021.

  1. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You presume they will be buying productive assets. It all hinges on productivity. If productivity does not follow, you will be left with more money chasing same number of assets leading to inflation.
     
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Which is what is happening now and inflation is declining.
     
  3. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    We will have to agree to disagree on that point then. I don't concede that inflation is declining regardless of what government stats may attempt to portray
     
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  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Then cite stats that show otherwise.

    Edit to add: even Shadowstats mirrors the official rate albeit a few points higher http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
     
  5. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I agree. But it certainly doesn’t reflect the increase in debt on issue. Maybe stagnating wage growth can explain that. Edit to add: And almost certainly asset inflation can explain why there is very little divergence between the two sets of stats. The extra money has been poured into assets and paying down debt. Classic balance sheet recessionary behaviour.

    The first chart plods along with the official.
     
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Unless you do the marketing, inflation ain't rising. There's no need to argue any more on this. :D

    There are 100 and 1 tricks to make prices appear low - substitute with substandard equivalent, replace meat with filler, etc.
     
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  8. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    Theyre also making packages smaller. The 200g chocolate bar becomes 185 then 175 then 165 and when you see its at 130.
    Im from Brazil and I have literally seen that happeneing. I heard the same is going on in the US. A pringles can was 200g and now its like 128 or something. Costs the same
     
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  9. Mill3d

    Mill3d Active Member

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    So true. “Large” coffee cups are on the skinny side now :)
     
  10. Mill3d

    Mill3d Active Member

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    Almost like a champagne flute
     
  11. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Right, so CPI isn't accurately reflecting the growing gap between assets and daily goods, almost like they want to keep the people's bread cheap whilst robbing them of future potential through asset inflation. Sure MMT can feed the people through subsidized or even free groceries, but then you essentially have a feudal system with increasingly richer land lords and permanently poor serfs.

    Here is another way to look at inflation:
    https://chapwoodindex.com/

    Using their method, we actually see average cost of goods increasing over the past five years. Are wages keeping up? Debatable.
     
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  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    My wages dont go up 10 percent a year haha. I wish.
    Smaller packaging and quantities has been going on for quite a few years and weve noticed that too, even less squares on tp and the cardboard core inside have grown too.
    Ive heard that called sizeflation which of course is not reported or figured in.

    Shiney probably has a chart from a mainstream network that shows sizes growing and I bet it starts in 85 or around there.

    We are seeing Inflation and deflation both in the US depending on what it is.
    The new Trumpflation.

    Inflation in everyday goods and housing and the things the working class buys, deflation in luxury goods, hotels, commercial real estate, cars, boats, and things like that. Stagnant or lowered pay, part time work all plays in as well.
    The rich are holding onto their assets and not spending as much while the poor waste their money like always but they have little.
    It's all about money velocity and its dead.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2021
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  13. betterinvestmentthanshare

    betterinvestmentthanshare Active Member

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    Consumers are now buying with price in mind not by brand name.

    Branded name products across the board are now being heavily discounted to compete against the lower price home branded products.

    Mince was up to $11.50kg where i live and no one was buying. within 2 weeks the price is $5kg and mince is moving again.

    This is deflation, the consumer now demands lower prices or the product doesn't move.

    Careful not to confuse profiteering with inflation.

    Many have opted out of private health insurance as well as car and home insurance.

    This is deflationary

    Many have switched to electric bicycles where I live, saving on fuel, rego, insurance and maintenance cost.

    This is also deflationary.

    New Toyota 4x4 sales have through the roof hear, building industry related business can afford the tax write off for now.

    Subsidies are being thrown at business like there's no tomorrow with still a deflationary affect.

    Many listed companies on the share market with super high PE ratios are close to or at all time highs.

    Another good indicator is a increase of crime/more police are being hired.

    This is not going to end well.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2021
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  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Definitely not. And productivity is also declining.
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    You are now acknowledging that money printing hasn't led to massive inflation.

    And now you're repeating what I posted.

    Careful not to confuse supply and demand with profiteering. Or inflation.
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm happy to accept that for the purposes of this debate, I would challenge some of the assumptions for example I wouldn't call botox or dry cleaning of suits an every day item for most but I'm not going down that path.

    But can we attribute an annual inflation rate of say 5- 10% depending upon which alternative statistics you use to massive money printing? If that premise were true, then the inflation rate would be marching higher and higher each year.
     
  17. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So you agree that we are seeing rising inflation as a result of this increasing supply of money?
     
  18. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    13% average over five years isn't high enough for you? I'm not arguing we will see instant hyperinflation of 1000%
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    It should reflect the rising levels of government debt if the premise is to hold true. It doesn’t, it’s still 5-10% annually ie it’s been constant.
     
  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Nope
     

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