Best Silver Plays on the ASX

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by 1for1, May 17, 2020.

  1. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Looks horrible. On low vol too.
     
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    We may have some light at last. With the emphasis on "may". We've got a green candle with a top wick higher than the two previous red candles, I would've liked to have seen the body of the candle above the 28.5c mark though which would've put it higher than that red candle about a week or so ago.

    Maybe if you're playing trades you'd buy in now and look to sell in the 43 - 46c range if a correction looks like happening there. And then wait for the next drop. If it happens. :D

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Doesn’t look like ‘breakout’ volume but who knows what the tea leaves throw out tomorrow!
     
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  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    This looks better.

    As @heartastack said not likely to be breakout volumes but signs are there of a reversal at least. Let's play with some fake money, @hardyakkagold has agreed to cough up some of his silver profits (to be confirmed) so we'll buy 4000 shares at $1200 not including brokerage. Target point is the 43c - 46c range if it looks like there's a pull back there. If no pullback indicated we'll hold and reassess once the price gets to that level.

    Stop loss at 0.24c for a $240 loss for @hardyakkagold plus my fee. :p

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2021
    Real $ and heartastack like this.
  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm still waiting for confirmation from @hardyakkagold regarding his transfer of $1200 for 4000 shares of MKR, must be back on his ignored list.

    Again.

    Anyway, just ticking along. Gunna move the stop loss up to 0.27 for no other reason than that's the bottom of the first green candle in this latest upward trend. Has anyone here actually checked the fundamentals of this mob?

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    [​IMG]

    :)

    All going to plan. Stop loss now at buy in price of 0.30c, 2 days of solid price rises, may be a correction tomorrow, but I don't think it'll drop 13%.
     
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  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    So, digging in to some fundamentals on Manuka. I really can't do the geological stuff (or CBF trying to and failing miserably at the moment), but putting that aside. Things that I remember from doing some research:

    1. MKR is focussed on gold production until the end of 2021 to earn revenue and pay down debt.
    2. Silver processing expected to commence in Q1/Q2 2022 refining ore on hand. Production costs are expected to be 50% for the time being as the ore is just sitting there in stockpiles with just the crows and wombats keeping it company.
    3. Management team has experience in finance/hedging precious metals markets.
    4. Institutions own just 2.1% of the total shares.
    5. Largest shareholder is a private finance company whose management team holds positions on the admin of Manuka.

    Price at close: 0.34
     
  9. SodaPop

    SodaPop Active Member

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    I bought in again in the 25-30c range with MKR, current price is over my average. Been a wild ride. The fundamentals of MKR are better now than when I first got in but the whole precious metals sector seems dead stock wise. Unless silver price drops a lot MKR should have no debt and 10-15M AUD in cash reserves by July 2022.

    If silver price rises it is going to be a rocket stock, otherwise it will be meddling/poor. But I already knew that going in and made my bet on the silver price increasing. Which lately it's been doing the opposite so, looking not so good lol.
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2021
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  10. SodaPop

    SodaPop Active Member

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    MKR latest announcement that they have found more gold than they estimated and even want to drill some more holes for gold at Mt Boppy. Looks likely silver production will get pushed back a couple more months at this pace but at least its for a good reason I guess.
     
  11. SodaPop

    SodaPop Active Member

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    You got another chart to show with your analysis? Things starting to pick up it seems.
     
  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    No I haven't actually. I think @hardyakkagold might have been stopped out as the price briefly fell below the 0.30c again, that's life. Target point remains the same but I'll have a look if/when we reach that.

    On a personal note I had been hoping for some input from other member re: fundamentals, which unfortunately didn't arrive so I did some funkymentals myself and made a decision to buy some after the August results were announced. So I missed the lower prices. I probably won't be selling this even if we see a correction in the 0.43 - 0.46 range as I'm more bullish on it than before.

    They're printing money on a monthly basis at the moment see: https://www.silverstackers.com/forums/index.php?threads/gold-price-prediction.101444/#post-1222432 which means they have free cash flow to put toward their exploration projects and pay down some debt (which is currently USD9 million). I'll be looking to add to my position on dips if I have cash available. I used the last lot I had to buy some crypto (Stacks) which is up just under 50% so I'm not really upset about missing the last dip. Lol.

    So the real ride may start if and when they get some data indicating the extent of any resources they have. Maybe. :D

    Edit to add: RSI is getting up.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2021
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  13. SodaPop

    SodaPop Active Member

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    Yeah looks like they'll be making millions per month profit until Feb/Mar when the gold stockpiles they'll have from Mt Boppy run out. Quite a stark difference from 6 months ago... making 6% of your market cap in PROFIT in a single month is pretty good I think. They finally have all that money to do extensive drilling around their licenses that no one has really done before either. Hard not to look at this and be excited right now.
     
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  14. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This, GIB and KAU (if they manage to convince the market of their production value - I'm quietly confident the bottom is in but the chart is horrible and a lot of research required. I wouldn't recommend diving into that one) are my top holds
     
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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    When does MKR become one of the best silver plays on the ASX? Not sure if it will. It's mainly gold at the moment.

    In the meantime I've had a quick squiz at the charts and readjusted a couple of things.

    1. My top up range is now 0.305 - 0.365, if it dips into that range and then I get confirmation of a reversal I may add to my position.
    2. New sell range (if I decide to sell) is now 0.595 - 0.650 which is kind of like WTF? as we haven't even reached the first sell range of 0.43 - 0.46.

    So two sell options out there. I'm probably going to hold through the 43c one and see what happens. And then I'll probably just see what happens. :eek:

    And I'll just leave this here with this question. Where does MKR fit in along the x axis?

    Screen Shot 2021-10-21 at 8.21.35 pm.png
     
  16. SodaPop

    SodaPop Active Member

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    There were 2 things holding back MKR I think, one was the bad loan they got (16% interest initially I think?) and then they were barely making profit up until mid this year. Since the loan is going to be fully paid within the next couple months you have to look at what they can mine next to make a profit after this gold runs out.

    The silver they have already hauled and waiting to be processed is 70g/t and will generate them 20M AUD profit if silver is $25 and AUD/USD is 0.75 and will take them approximately 6 months to process. Once they move past that pile they have 10M ounces of 100g/t silver they have to get out of the ground and get to the plant, so that is a bit of an extra cost compared to just running a stockpile already there, but since it is 100g/t vs 70g/t I think maybe they will make even more profit, maybe 25M AUD per 6 months. So 45M to 50M profit next year (depending on how the tail end of the gold pans out), for a company with a market cap of 100M and that is with silver and aud values that are fairly conservative.

    How normal is it that a company can make half its value in profit in a single year? From my understanding it is very abnormal in the positive.

    The second thing you have to look at is they have a huge amount of exploration licenses spanning 150KM around that region that are pumped full of gold/silver/zinc/lead and much of it barely explored yet bordering on known resources/mines. Now that they have so much free cash lying around the possibility of this company doubling, tripling, quadrupling its known reserves of gold and silver is not out of the question.

    Seeing 40c again which is roughly where I first bought in if you remember is kind of bittersweet for me. I'm up +30% now but with the signs I am seeing I can't fathom why this isn't worth 60-80c right now even if you are extremely conservative and think gold/silver will be flat or negative from here. So I wish it was lower so I could buy more without increasing my avg price but I will see how this pans out today and probably buy more upto 50c. Hopefully there is a pullback around 40c so I can grab some more around 35c.
     
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  17. SodaPop

    SodaPop Active Member

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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Completely abnormal. They're essentially an ore crushing enterprise at the moment. Which has me thinking about which part of the lifecycle of the mine they're at (acknowledging that MKR is abnormal and the chart refers to normal enterprises). Screen Shot 2021-10-21 at 8.27.51 pm.png


    Screen Shot 2021-10-21 at 8.35.27 pm.png
     
  19. SodaPop

    SodaPop Active Member

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    Well in one of their recent reports they stated it costs $35/t to process silver. They have 6 months worth of 70+g/t ore to process which makes them $72 currently per tonne. So $72-35 is $37 in profit per tonne.

    Since there is virtually no risk with that existing stockpile, as in no mining complications just run it through the mill that will net them $36M in revenue and ~18.5M in profit over 6 months. Then you will have admin costs, whatever else which is like 2.5M for half a year. So ~$15M in profit at current low prices or $7.5M per quarter which is roughly equal to their existing "best quarter" they just announced and unlike now, no interest payments on debt.

    If silver budges even just a few dollars then they will be making new "best quarters" mining pretty crappy stuff in that existing stockpile. Then they have a known 10M ounces of silver over 100g/t to mine (5 years worth at current capacity) so I don't think they are on the downward end of anything right now unless somehow silver collapses to $12. Which I think is virtually impossible given inflation and the silver shortages becoming more apparent.
     
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  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    And Pursuit ASX PUR has "stumbled" across some silver, albeit low grade at this stage.

    [​IMG]
     
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