Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by SilverSanchez, Sep 13, 2012.
Me, I was going to sell pre weekend as well
A lot of action for these guys today. Not sure if that's good or bad -
181 buyers for 11,108,836 units 218 sellers for 13,866,811 units
One of the worst performing goldie today Looks like it will take a spot of $2000Aud to move this...
Bit like SLR, doing my head in.Market reluctance due to wet season and waiting on next announcement, ready to pop but patience wearing thin.
BDR starting to look more hopeful.
Looks like 20c is critical level to be overcome? Stock at 18c now.
Last week showed itself to be in the top 5 weeks for positive weekly volume for BDR over the last 5 years.
Sort of a tweezer bottom at 10c in Aug/Sept, followed by a rounding low - not a bad look.
I never try to think out fundamentals of gold stocks anymore, so its purely a chart comment, and a pullback is certainly possible.
Why the Beadell Resources share price is soaring today
Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX: BDR) has seen its share price climb more than 22% to 22 cents, after the gold miner forecast a strong 2016 financial year.
Beadell has forecast production of between 145,000 and 160,000 ounces of gold in the 2016 calendar year, an increase of at least 19% over the 2015 calendar year (CY2015). The gold miner produced 122,292 ounces in CY2015.
Additionally, the company is also forecasting lower all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of between US$715 and US$815 an ounce, a fall of 19% to 20% over CY2015. In the last quarter, Beadell reported AISC of US$899 an ounce, down from US$1,033 an ounce in September, and lower than the US$922 an ounce recorded in CY2014.
Beadell produces gold from just one mine, Tucano in Brazil, but the company owns 100% of the mine and it's the third largest gold mine in Brazil.
Investors have long had high hopes for Beadell. When Tucano started producing gold in late 2012, the company forecast production of over 200,000 ounces of gold in CY2013, but ended up producing 182,547 ounces of gold. Ultra-low production costs partly thanks to iron ore by-product credits resulted in a net profit of $113.5 million.
2014 was a disaster, with production even lower at 153,691 ounces produced, but costs exploded and net profit plunged to $13.5 million. 2015 production was even lower at 122,292 ounces but Beadell has yet to report its full-year financial results. The miner reported a $30 million loss for the six months to end of June 2015 suggesting it probably won't be great.
A new management team took over in November 2015, and it seems they have high expectations (the same high expectations Beadell's 2012 management had?) of the company in the future.
The share price might be soaring today, but that doesn't mean the company's future looks materially different to the past.
As is likely to be the case with many gold miners, shareholders are unlikely to see much in the way of dividends their company has yet to pay a dividend. Profits are more than likely going to go on additional exploration, which may or may not result in any additional benefit to shareholders. Buyer beware.
Ignore Beadell and read this instead
Our resident dividend expert names his Top Dividend Share for 2016.
Wouldn't pay too much attention to Motley Fool. Most of their recommendations in last 2 years are well in the red.
No recommendations in the free version quoted - just opinions. They were good guides on the Dick Smith ipo, as one example.
They mostly dislike gold stocks because of being commodity 'price takers', and because of the vagaries of mining
The subscription based Motley Fool Share advisor is currently up an average of 50.6% dated from 24 hrs after each buy recommendation. Same amounts invested in asx all ords at the same times up 8.2%
I 've read that their dividend investor tip service has been doing very well too.
LOL. Does this mean that they have a lot of followers who jump on their recommendations as soon as they come out? If so it doesn't mean the recommendations are good....it just means they have a lot of sheeple following them
Rene Rivkin anyone?
There's usually an upward blip on the day of a recommendation - which is why they take their nominal buy price from the closing price of the day after the publication of their recommendation. That is, they sacrifice the first day of boost from their recomendations when calculating the return over the period of investment.
They are living off some picks from 2011 and 2012 which are up around 300 or 400 per cent. When you look at their recommendations in last 2 or 3 years most are duds. If you took out their big winners from 2011 and 2012 it would put their portfolio in the red.
That's admirable. I withdraw my cynical comments
@ silver kook
This is a thread about BDR, which is why i inserted the motley fool article.
But ok, lets eliminate their good earlier years littered with the 400% 300% 100% returns and concentrate on the last two miserable years. That seems like a fair measure of a service that looks for long term investments.
So from their recommendation of Challenger Ltd CGF on 02/01/2014 through to their recommendation of Burson BAP on 28/01/2016 that includes 26 picks and the average return to date is positive 2.0%. Investing in the All Ords at the same times would have returned an average negative 4.7%. So a positive difference of 6.7% compared to investment in the index.
And thats with all their best mature recs removed
After holding this stock for half a year I sold half of it today at 23c. Initially it was going to be a short term hold when I bought it but I decided to hold it when the price dropped. It has been nothing but frustration holding it as it wasn't really moving up with the upward momentum of gold as much as it was falling when gold dropped.
Finally today it took off and I decided to sell half just in case it pulls back. Will hold the rest long term if the momentum persists. There seems to be good potential, especially that now they have reduced their costs, changed management and gold is up.
I'm holding to hopefully get my money back!
Trading halt.... capital raising?
I've done more than that now, I'm up 46%
Hold in this new resources boom, or sell?
Been buying from 13c up to today 44.5c, this and BLK are flying with no end on sight, unbelievable!Feels like the START of a huge bull run imo.
Most of the mining companies have been booming in the last 6 months. Was hard not to make money. To quote the Truman show, how will it end?
I am new to this but most of the ones being talked about around here had a very slow last 24-32 months but in the last 6 month everything is moving. Are there any that have lost?
Separate names with a comma.