Aussie dollar to drop below 66c - "benign" collapse ahead

Discussion in 'Currencies' started by SpacePete, Sep 11, 2014.

  1. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    I am getting this nagging feeling that the Aussie dollar may defy popular opinion here.
    I won't be surprised that the Aussie dollar will eventually slipstream the U.S. dollar when it finally makes its big run up...
    We are one of the few countries in the world with funded pensions.
    On a scale of ugliness, the Aussie dollar could perceivably be taken home after 6 beers as compared to some of the currencies that you would not take home unless paraletic....
     
  2. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    USD be in the gutter by then ;)
     
  3. silver kook

    silver kook Active Member

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    When you consider the number of countries going to NEGATIVE interest rates it is hardly surprising our dollar is holding up. Seems to be a bit of a rebound in commodity prices going on.
     
  4. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So whats everyone's thought on the RBA regarding the AUD? will They keep rates on hold even when our dollar is above 80c?

    Or is Steve's still in a dream world where he thinks 2% points up his sleeve can save Australia when the next GFC hits. Or maybe his 8 ball is stuck on (hold for now)

    I think our dollar will get back up close to 90c but i see it back down in the 60c area at the end of the year.
     
  5. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    They'll stay on hold in the hope that the Fed raises rates, and then take them down after that event.

    I've no idea whether the AUD will be at parity or 50c btw. Each is possible, but most probably in my view is around 70c again.
     
  6. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Keeping rates on hold may itself be a signal that the RBA believes an extremely serious financial crisis is ahead and it is worth the risk to the economy now to be ready for an even greater risk ahead. This could really drive the AUD up as global fx flows move to favour our dollar.

    Or maybe the RBA board is living in la la land and too isolated from the reality of broader Australia and the world to make any meaningful decision.
     
  7. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    USD is going down and by years end our dollar will surpass USD. There is a turning away from trading in USD and by years end many countries will be like - who wants to trade in crumby/worthless USD!
     
  8. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    You have been eating the magic mushrooms again.
    U.S. dollar is the only.....repeat only....currency in the world at the moment.
    It is biding its time.....the break upwards is imminent.
    Keep listening to MSM. They are dead wrong.
    Once it moves up, it will be unstoppable.
    We may rise with the U.S. dollar.
     
  9. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The RBA has been on the magic mushrooms too. But ultimately the USD and our local economic failures will blow their collective fantasy out of the water.
     
  10. aleks

    aleks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    a few weeks ago I was thinking 76ish cents would be a significant level to break through and likely be a rough area where this run up would die out and its since pushed through this level twice. Current downside level if broken that could be an early sign of a reversal that I am watching is now 7490.
     
  11. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Open your eyes. There is already a turning away in trading in USD. Many countries are trading in other currencies, even their own. It is a snowball that is continuing to grow and once it gathers enough mass, everyone will stop trading in it.
     
  12. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The people of those nations all go running back to the USD at the first sign of instability. They trust their governments less than they do the USD.
     
  13. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    Don't take my word for it.
    If you are so sure that the U.S. dollar is toast then trade against it, sell everything and buy gold....now........if you dare. Get back to me in 6 months and let me know how you are going.
    Or you can do what I am going to do.....
    A big rise in the U.S. dollar will possibly push gold back below $1000.....then I will buy. I will get back to you......most certainly.....when it does.
     
  14. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have but with silver, not gold. ;)

    I have been saying the USD is going to go down big time since last year. That was when many here were predicting it would go to 50 AUD by now. It never did but kept going opposite direction.

    Last year I even been predicting the Chinese Yuan will replace the USD by 2020 as world reserve currency. Even made a silver bet with Silverpete on that. Then came the news that Yuan could be the reserve currency within 10 years. No surprise to me cause I got my crystal ball. :p

    Don't kid yourself. There is not going to be a big rise in the USD in 6 months time, or ever in my opinion. It's all downhill from here. Who would want to trade in a currency that continually losing value?
     
  15. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Will never happen, 100% guaranteed.
     
  16. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  17. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Reality reigns over rhetoric. The AUD today got hammered as Australia slips into deflation and heads towards a recession. Will the RBA drop rates and smash the dollar down further? At this stage it doesn't really matter... when the next GFC hits there is now nothing to stop a full-blown economic collapse and prolonged depression.
     
  18. long88

    long88 Member

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    My neighbor already lost his job.. se we are in a confirmed recession...
     
  19. aleks

    aleks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    AUD getting close to some key lows right now
     
  20. kramer

    kramer Member

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    USDBest looking horse in the knackery..

    Big rally in usd= higher priced gold in AUD..
    Big drop in AUD= higher priced gold in AUD..

    since we buy in aud. If you believe the usd is in for a big run as an aussie you would simply buy usd. Since i dont trust either My money is on the gold.
     

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