Yeah, but just because many are saying the market is going to crash doesn't mean it will. Also, with a small number of individual stocks, you always run the risk of actually cashing out on stock that may, with hindsight, continue to perform well, crash or no crash.
This is the context of the 'sell everything' call by RBS. So what would a big devaluation (20%) in the Yuan mean for AUD? I expect it will be a very big negative, and send us toward the 60c, since without China, ("giant stockpiles of most things China"), Australia only has a lot of prospective holes in the ground and a vast collection of overpriced housing markets to offer. BTW It also seals the fate of RBA interest rises this year. There is also the issue of what appears to be a collapse of the Baltic Dry Index: No ships at sea and no international trade happening. I'm inclined to batten down the hatches.
Figures are in. The centrally controlled economy of China has confirmed that the figures are the way they'd like the figures to be. All better now. Buy. Buy. Buy.
But would such a devaluation directly effect the AUD? By my thinking a weaker yuan means that Chinese products become more affordable from outside. If more affordable from outside demand goes up. Demand goes up from Chinese products the demand for Australian resources goes up with it. Resource prices goes up and stimulates the Australian economy (and the tax take). With all of the above (not withstanding the upward pressure positive terms of trade have on the AUD) the RBA has less need to lower rates, if anything it would put pressure on the upside of interest rates. Surely all of that puts upward pressure on the AUD. All that garbage said, I get paid in USD. I want to see 50c AUD/USD for the next couple of years.
77c now. Took a bit longer then i thought but back up it goes. I imagined it would go back up into the 80c range if RBA kept rates on hold in April and looks like its moving that way now. Be interesting if useless Steven does nothing again in March. maybe back in the 90c range? I don't see how RBA would have thought our $ would stay low when everyone else is going into the negative rates zone.
Oh yeah, this is interesting. If there's no change in interest rates then it will signal the market to power up with the AUD and we could see some solid strength in the currency.
I recall at the start of the year someone started a thread about where people think USD to AUD will end by years end. About half were predicting 50 cent.
If going on holiday in 3 weeks would you lock in the US Dollar now or wait longer to exchange currency?
There's been some extra meetings between Yellen and President Obama...something is cooking !!! You could see the stock-market get spooked and a decent drop occurr or just the opposite...TheUS Fed might drop rates which could spur the market and USD. Having said that, I think more and more people are realising that the US FED has lost the plot and all hell could break loose. Here's what I'd do...Lock in half now and do lots of overtime to boost the kitty for that trip; then you can put ya feet up and...relax.
Ironically it may have something to do with this ... https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/Twitter4.12.16.1.pdf
