Aussie dollar to drop below 66c - "benign" collapse ahead

Discussion in 'Currencies' started by SpacePete, Sep 11, 2014.

  1. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, but just because many are saying the market is going to crash doesn't mean it will.
    Also, with a small number of individual stocks, you always run the risk of actually cashing out on stock that may, with hindsight, continue to perform well, crash or no crash.
     
  2. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is the context of the 'sell everything' call by RBS.

    So what would a big devaluation (20%) in the Yuan mean for AUD? I expect it will be a very big negative, and send us toward the 60c, since without China, ("giant stockpiles of most things China"), Australia only has a lot of prospective holes in the ground and a vast collection of overpriced housing markets to offer. BTW It also seals the fate of RBA interest rises this year.

    There is also the issue of what appears to be a collapse of the Baltic Dry Index: No ships at sea and no international trade happening.

    I'm inclined to batten down the hatches.
     
  3. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Figures are in. The centrally controlled economy of China has confirmed that the figures are the way they'd like the figures to be. All better now. Buy. Buy. Buy.

     
  4. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    But would such a devaluation directly effect the AUD?

    By my thinking a weaker yuan means that Chinese products become more affordable from outside. If more affordable from outside demand goes up. Demand goes up from Chinese products the demand for Australian resources goes up with it. Resource prices goes up and stimulates the Australian economy (and the tax take). With all of the above (not withstanding the upward pressure positive terms of trade have on the AUD) the RBA has less need to lower rates, if anything it would put pressure on the upside of interest rates. Surely all of that puts upward pressure on the AUD.

    All that garbage said, I get paid in USD. I want to see 50c AUD/USD for the next couple of years.
     
  5. DanielM

    DanielM Active Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ go eat a big fat one. I want parity
     
  6. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    I think Kharma is likely to see me get what I want before (or at least closer to it) than you do.
     
  7. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I foresee a brief moment of parity as the USD collapses.

    Karma Aussie Come-on!
     
  8. kramer

    kramer Member

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    Usd... Best looking horse in the glue factory
     
  9. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I found this which helps!

     
  10. errol43

    errol43 New Member Silver Stacker

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    The BDI was a good indicator in 07/08....Beware the ides of 2016. :)

    Regards Errol 43
     
  11. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    Don't we all but what is likely to come first 50c or parity? My money is on 50c.
     
  12. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Dropped below 69c:

    [​IMG]
     
  13. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    77c now.
    Took a bit longer then i thought but back up it goes. I imagined it would go back up into the 80c range if RBA kept rates on hold in April and looks like its moving that way now.

    Be interesting if useless Steven does nothing again in March. maybe back in the 90c range? I don't see how RBA would have thought our $ would stay low when everyone else is going into the negative rates zone.
     
  14. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Oh yeah, this is interesting. If there's no change in interest rates then it will signal the market to power up with the AUD and we could see some solid strength in the currency.
     
  15. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I recall at the start of the year someone started a thread about where people think USD to AUD will end by years end. About half were predicting 50 cent.
     
  16. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Still several months to go.
     
  17. silver kook

    silver kook Active Member

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    If going on holiday in 3 weeks would you lock in the US Dollar now or wait longer to exchange currency?
     
  18. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member

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    There's been some extra meetings between Yellen and President Obama...something is cooking !!!

    You could see the stock-market get spooked and a decent drop occurr or just the opposite...TheUS Fed might drop rates which could spur the market and USD.

    Having said that, I think more and more people are realising that the US FED has lost the plot and all hell could break loose.

    Here's what I'd do...Lock in half now and do lots of overtime to boost the kitty for that trip; then you can put ya feet up and...relax. :cool: :)
     
  19. systematic

    systematic Well-Known Member

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  20. systematic

    systematic Well-Known Member

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