I can see where you'd be nervous if you were shorting at the moment. On the other hand, with the volatility we're seeing, he could just as easily be above water tomorrow morning. The question is how long can you hold out for your bet to turn a profit?
Turtle-me. I was following your trades recently to see if you were credible. Faith will only cause you pain.
It's still early.. it looks like the middle finger formation is in play... This type of volatility makes me sit on the sideline via stocks. Though I did pickup some silver @ $16.5 some yps poured bars. up or down, its a decent price for yps. I'm in the small leagues though only picking up and playing roughly 4-5 kilos in this transition. I still think its presumptuous to say the metal is on an uptrend, its still within range and hasn't broken out past previous highs yet so I'm still skeptical about this rally. I doubt it has legs, but took a position just incase it does.
Deep under water. What's going on? Both large and small speculators are winning the game, who's losing then
Maybe the commercials are pulling them in for the "kill" here shortly? I still don't get all this even with Pirocco's explanation. Jim
It's obvious who is losing - anyone who seriously believes this is a factional war on commodity pricing. If you instead look at it for what it is - a 'market', rather than a macho-chest-beating-exercise by the assumed agenda-driven groups in the COT, then all becomes much clearer, and blind-faith is no longer necessary.
it means something when spot goes above $16.5, otherwise it's still in range. The tide can change very quickly. another sustained month or two will be interesting.
Today's performance is exactly what I mean. Big bank/players set people up then do a large sale/short and boom kick in the stop loss. Do this a couple of times with enough volume and they can recover within a week or month..
Are we gonna see $14 handle silver this week? - I guess yes. The guy in the link below was bearish during PM's fall after 2011 and he was right in his calls consistently, so I didn't like him much back then. He has become somewhat bullish on PM's for the past several months. Says we are going to get a drop in the near future (as are some other pundits) but bullish after that. http://www.marketanthropology.com/ Jim
Will it ever cross your mind that COT analysis is ONLY one of many leading indicators for the gold and silver price and that it is not always accurate even with a time delay? So long as large and small speculators are supporting the positions or selling the positions, they can keep the commercials from dictating the price. Wouldn't all traders simply follow the commercial positions if it was always accurate?
Maybe it has become dogma? It may work for a time, but when it doesn't the explanations and justifications will become increasingly convoluted.
Well that explains any gold bug who blames the Rothschild boogyman in the closet for a falling gold price Do yourself a favour Leon, search around the interwebs and youtube for credible information relating to falling real interest rates and its relationship to the price of gold then apply that knowledge to the current interest rate environment. How a zero yielding asset such as physical gold is a better prospect than a negative yielding fixed cash asset like a sovereign bond.
If one could predict the market, they'd be rich. Trying to identify 'credible' information is mostly bullshit. It's all rationalized information in one way or the other, and they are right at some point in time, up or down. The best one can do is an educated guess, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. If we always won, I doubt any of us would be here. It just depends which indicator you follow.
I think if the Fed raises, which they probably will do on Wednesday, we will see a knee-jerk drop in PM's. Then later on the real launch will occur. This pundit thinks we're dropping soon. Will be fun to see what happens this coming week either way. http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3750 Just my opinion. Jim
