The difference between stockpiling (saving, in anything, dollars, silver, peanuts) and investing, the choice between, isn't related to "constructivity" but to risk and dependency. And it's not about the atoms but about what they form: an object that is used to produce (a "tool"), or an object that can't be, like a silver coin or bar or statue or bullet. Your dead metal containing equipment comment is quite silly I must say. And about suckers, those that suck are those that follow trends, regardless whether that occurs along saving or investing or whatever, and the longer the trend they follow, the more they suck. And just to add, people that suggest others to do the opposite of what they plan to do themselves (usually along false claims), suck too, in another way then.
I hear what you are saying, but you still have to chose one way or the other when you place your "bet". You can hedge and such, but you have to make a call; up, down or sideways. A person cannot place so many "bets" so that they win no matter which way the market goes or under all market conditions. If they could do that, they would become a billionaire in no time because they would never lose. So when I say "is the price going up or down?" that is what I mean. If the investor says "I don't have a clue", then their input is really no better than any else's in my opinion, to the extent it gives the alleged "smarter" types (like those posting in this thread) the right to call out others as being stupid or whatever because they don't list a litany of factors affecting price but instead focus on something like the COT, etc. I think you are playing "word games" WRCMAD. The proper answer to my question posed to the other poster, based upon your answer herein, would be "the greater probability is that silver is going to drop over the next x weeks, etc." If using all those factors Lupinum posted can't tell you which way is "probable" then what good are they? Kind of reminds me of the Elliot wave folks who can't tell you if it is a wave c or wave 3 or whatever the hell until AFTER it has moved. Great tool that is I am sure. At the end of the day you are either profitable or not. Nothing else is relevant. There is no "it's not if you win or lose it's how you play the game" BS in investing. So the folks here who seem to think highly of themselves or as being somehow more sophisticated than others should be able to make a directional call based on probabilities, no? I still believe the "smart guys" here are afraid to say anything that will show they are wrong (make a prediction or probability based call if you prefer that nomenclature) because then they would not be able to call out Leon and others for being wrong. Just my opinion. Jim
well, Surprise!! lol.. There's no real way to predict the market. I'm just trying to buy/sell as responsibly as I can.
There is a certainty in speculation / saving / stockpiling though, what goes up relative to the rest, must go down relative to the rest. Because people don't throw away the stuff they bought to store value: they sell it again. So stockpiles, monetary aggregates, etc, are quite reliable indicators of trends to come.
There actually WAS some renewed strength early in the coming week when silver ran right back up to $16 USD on Tuesday night. Now in the back half of the week it looks like we have another pullback. Technical analysts don't like it much when price movements fail to break through key resistance levels.
It sucks, I know we're all on the same rollercoaster.. I'm glad i didn't spend all my money buying new stuff. It looks like there will be another entry point again. If it broke $16.50, I think we would've continued to head upward. Since it didn't, I think its on another run down to the mid 14's. If gold drops below $1190, we're heading further down channel. Lower highs leads to lower lows... Let's see how it goes! Sucks that the dollar is devaluing too. I still want to make an order from Perthbullion @ 0.69:1 and spot at $13.25 or lower.
That's because it means that those they wanted to buy them a free ride, refused. Technical analysis can be seen as an attempt to drive people into predictable (and thus frontrunnable) trading behaviour. Sometimes that doesn't work out, usually due to alot hard lessons that sit too short in memory. Also, it is a kind of "chunked data" analysis: it's based on a certain data range (a trendline), a focus, and then its overridden like the guy that was observing an ant on the street, with the approaching truck outside his scope. The ant fitted between the reeds of the tires, the guy not.
+100. And nothing I love more than a refused free ride. Repaired. The TA guys fat neck alone probably already made that impossible.
Today is the day..... we break below $15 again? Looks like what I've been saying is coming to pass-- we're droppin' before we're poppin'. Maybe Leon should have held on to his shorts? The Commercials ARE the smart money and they will not lose their ASSetS on their massive short position. Wishing to the magic silver fairy will not change this. I am so disgusted with the pro PM sites that still keep featuring the same numbnut prognosticators who have been wrong since 2011 almost all the time (I won't mention names) but you guys know the ones. Now these sites all seem to want to charge people to hear their bad calls, as if getting them for free wasn't bad enough, now dolts will pay for them. PS Sorry for my negative tone, I saw the accountant yesterday and I have to sell a bit to pay the taxman in April. Just my opinion. Jim
Gold, China, Manipulation, Strategies etc from Jim Rickards [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kdd_-w0-_Xc[/youtube]