Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Aug 27, 2014.

  1. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    So far it went back below 2.50 only during 1 hourly interval and threw a massive hammer candlestick. It was also the opening hour when market arguably adjusting to CHF/EUR shock. Now it's hanging around 2.50. As posted earlier, 2.50 strikes me as significant level. Just subjective, but the way it's shaping on hourly makes me think it will go higher in daily time frame. It seems to be using up time to absorb whatever selling there is? Just talking about days, not at all confident yet on weekly or monthly time scales (but a bit optimistic)

    HOURLY 10 Day chart
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_hrly.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    AGI hourly still looking ok, just using up time absorbing selling is how i see it
    2.50 still holding

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_hrly_jan_20.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  3. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2014
    Messages:
    2,550
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    R.I.P
    I was eyeing it today trying to decide if I should take my 10%. The volumes on the selling side was all under 12k shares a time and there were some big buyers (20-60k range) which stayed my hand. I figure if someone with $150,000 to spend on agi shares choose to do so they probably had a pretty good reason.
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Note from stocksinvalue today:

    Stocks We Like Australia: Adding QBE and AGI

    Since our 12 December note "Close to adding Ainsworth to our preferred list" we have become sufficiently confident to now introduce AGI to Stocks We Like and recommend the stock at current prices, where there is an 11% discount to FY15 value plus a 4.3% dividend yield. We are more confident about management's guidance for a stronger 2H and consider upside to consensus earnings is probable. Domestically, new cabinets and games are slated for release this year and the offer is competitive. In North America, recent ship-share data suggest AGI is taking market share due to new AGI brands performing at better than 2x house average. Organic growth will be supported by the new manufacturing facility in Las Vegas, due to be opened in March 2016, which should create the opportunity to expand into new product lines.
     
  5. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2014
    Messages:
    2,550
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    R.I.P
    I always wondered if there would be money in monitoring the big share recommendation services and buying at the first immediate moment possible after they announce something like that. I almost bought DRM when it came through on my commsec mailer (I'd looked at them precisely anyway), it was up something like 6% that day.

    I actuality like agi's prospects but I worry that general asx downtrend will keep it down.

    On another note I was trying to find some agi info and the asx website had a little other shares in the same field thing that had Myers in it, discretionary spending I suppose. A little silly since the market agi is in depends on habitual gamblers with no discretion.
     
  6. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    This is 15 minute chart. Still looking promising I think. Let's see if it can perch on 2.55 for a while. Still suggesting me a chart consolidating its gains, preparing to go higher (on a daily scale only so far). Def not a short term sell to my eye at least. Would reconsider on any candle below 2.50

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_15_min_jan_22.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  7. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2014
    Messages:
    2,550
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    R.I.P
    I'm a chicken, a wimp! I saw $2.65 and figured I'd jump. Going into a 3 day weekend with so much uncertainty, particularly when something nasty could happen over seas on Monday and I wouldn't be able to do anything about it.

    I ended up getting $2.63 after getting in at $2.25 7 weeks ago. That's around 16% in 7 weeks which you really can't complain about. Investing such a small amount fees ate a bit of it but I'm still pretty happy. I also got out of crusader at about 12% but I had even less of that and fees ate more than a third. Again pretty happy.

    I figure it probably doesn't have much movement left today and with the 3 day weekend there might be a few people like me closing positions later this afternoon. I'm looking in to cheaper brokerage so I figure I can always buy it back Tuesday after I've done some more reading and researching.

    I still like the company though, if I was more confident in trading sticks I night have hung in by a bird in the hand...
     
  8. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    It's good. You always kept an exit in mind, something I usually fail to do, regarding a share as an investment. Also sounds like you're learning and being paid to do it! All that stuff about balls of steel and wimps and such like is BS in investment and trading - it's rationality you want, not ego, so you have the right temperament imo.
    Still reckon there's more in it; good breakout move today - should struggle @ 2.80? .
     
  9. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2014
    Messages:
    2,550
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    R.I.P
    I also wanted to say thanks to everyone for putting me on to AGI. Another pick in the SS index that did a great job. I like to think I did some of the work researching myself but I don't think I would have taken the dip longer I did if it wasn't for everyone here being so helpful and informative. I probably would have just parked some money in Lockheed Martin like I initially wanted and not learned anything.

    Cheers guys.
     
  10. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    AGI made a 'shooting star today which is a bearish candle after a rise

    Shooting Star daily candle
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_3_mth_shooting_star.gif][​IMG][/imgz]

    AMazingly the price contacted two different kinds of resistance today before retreating.
    The first is the zone of level resistance between 3.10 and 3.00
    The second is the strong downtrend resistance 'rail' starting from February 2014 ' just put a ruler across the peaks, you'll see that today's high made an almost precise touch.

    So this leads me to suppose a likely retreat and consolidation scenario. Perfectly reasonable for a buy and hold investor to hold as the chart has shown great daily term strength imo.

    1 Year Daily
    [​IMG]
     
  11. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2014
    Messages:
    2,550
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    R.I.P
    Shedding such tears will injure you.
    When tears stop flowing, then bones come through.
    Nor heaven nor earth has compassion then.
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Could be a flag or pennant formed? Could break through downtrend resistance and level resistance @3.10 next move. Feel optimistic.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_feb_5.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  13. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    So fell out of the so called pennant rather than broke out. Now uptrending on daily scale again (higher lows, higher highs) since it anchored with a massive hammer candlestick on Feb 25, Still feel this should again challenge 3.00 shortly, then 3.10 sometime. If it broke through 3.10 eventually, the whole half year or so will look like a big bottoming pattern boding well for the future. Patience required imo.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Having another go at the $3 area, looking a chance?
     
  15. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Pretty normal looking breakout so far except for volume not increasing. Needs some more decision from buyers for $3 to be history. Looking promising though.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    So volume quite high by lunch time today, but it's negative volume. Back near breakout levels. Looking at today's course of sales I can see heaps of tiny transactions there so what does that mean? Could be automated trading for purpose of accumulation? Then again, might not! That's my guess anyway.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_may_27.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  17. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    So still likely to be digging back in at $3 level, which to look across is significant resistance, now become support. But all the volume activity over the previous couple of days pressed it below $3 and was likely shaking out and robbing retail traders and investors who got on - jmo, and up for discussion. Main point is, as a chart it is still behaving well with $3 being tested.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_1_yr.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  18. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Chart not looking so good at lunchtime today, but trading update gives hope. Worth a watch?

    4 June 2015
    ASX Release
    ASX Code: AGI

    Ainsworth Game Technology Limited Trading Update

    Ainsworth Game Technology Ltd (AGI) today announced that based on unaudited management
    forecasts net profit after tax for FY15 is expected to be similar to the $61.6 million reported for FY14,
    subject to any adverse movement in foreign exchange rates and audit completion procedures.
    The FY15 results are expected to be released after market close on the 18th August 2015. An
    investor teleconference is planned for 9am on the 19th August 2015 where management will present
    the results.

    The trends affecting the company's domestic results in 1H FY15 have continued in the second half of
    the year with unit sales to the corporate market being adversely affected. AGI continues to maintain
    its position as a market leader in Australia with strong overall product performance across its range of
    equipment. The Company is confident the investment undertaken in research and development
    activities will produce an increased pipeline of new product offerings across all markets. The
    Company expects that these new initiatives will lead to accelerated growth and market share gains in
    FY16.

    International sales remain robust with strong momentum continuing into the second half of FY15.
    American and Asian revenues are on track to increase by over 40% in FY15 compared to the previous
    corresponding period in 2014. AGI continues to build a strong presence in these key growth markets.
    Given these trends, AGI now expects total revenue for FY15 to be slightly less (approximately 2%)
    than the $244.1 million reported for FY14. This reduction is driven by lower domestic revenues for the
    second half compared to the first half of FY15 which have been largely offset by continued growth
    achieved within international markets.

    Given robust international sales and the positive outlook for domestic sales, AGI expects to deliver
    strong organic revenue and profit growth in FY16.


    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_4_june.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  19. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
  20. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,543
    Likes Received:
    77
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld

Share This Page