Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Aug 27, 2014.

  1. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    That's what I read, everything I read indicated three company was doing fine, just not quite as well as the other major Australian gaming company that we won't mention. I also read that the flounder and majority shareholder was 91 and might not be contributing much for many more years but we're talking about a company with hundreds of millions in revenue, it's hard to imagine one near centarian making that big a contribution regardless of how great a man he might be.
     
  2. Stick Framer

    Stick Framer New Member

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    He started aristocrat, left due to illness then started this company
    So he may add some value
     
  3. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    If aristocrat is cruising along ok without him you have to assume AGI will as well. Not saying he isn't a valuable and top addition to their management team but at his age you'd be worried if they were over reliant on his help to keep the lights on.

    Perhaps they know he's not well and address assuming there will be a price drop on his passing?

    Anyway, I'm following with great anticipation, it seems like a bargain given the price dive despite the fact that they are expecting increases in revenue next year.
     
  4. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    The purchase went through this morning, [email protected]$2.25. I'm officially a share holder, look out 1%, I'll be a bilderburg member in no time!
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Recovered well on the day. Almost went for 1,000 more @ 2.17, but the break of 2.25 had me nervous about possible lower target (2.00). Hasn't turned the corner yet. There was a nice so called 'piercing line' reversal candle on the hourly chart from the second hour of trading that shows a little potential, but early days yet.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_hrly_nov_28.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  6. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Just technically there was a head and shoulders topping pattern and that took it down to 2.30 - but support would be around $2 or $1.80

    Analytically it looks like a decent investment, but the trend was against you - its been trending down for a year now

    Just read your first post - you caught the H&S pattern
     
  7. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    would you be in for a second helping if it breaks through $2? I don't quite understand the nasty downturn given that everyone seems to agree that the AGM info wasn't actually bad, in fact it was good, just not shockingly brilliant.
    Company says they will earn more next year than this year, share price goes down...
     
  8. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Failing any negative news, general ASX plunge, or revised guidance from AGI management - then YES phrenzy, I will definitely add 1 or 2 thousand if it hits 2.00.
    As you have noted, management has already recently given guidance at AGM that profit after tax for fy15 should exceed that of fy14 despite an expected weaker H1

    I think 2.00 is a chance but if it goes any deeper than that I will have been fooled. A correction I was expecting, but originally not as deep as 2.00, let alone lower. Lowest I allowed for was 2.25 and I thought 2.75 was more likely. It could pull up around here.
     
  9. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    If you saw the H&S pattern when it broke the neckline measure the highest point down to the line and then add (or subtract) it from the break point. That is a minimum target - which in this case comes out to $2.30. so 2.30 has been reached - there's no reason why it cant continue to fall, and now there is no reason why it cant rise - but the greater market is down trending so why would this one buck the trend? Especially because it has been trending down for the last 12 months... if the trend is still in place its still going down.
     
  10. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Looks a really good chance to be forming a significant low. Hasn't made it down to 2 bucks so far. There's the high volume in November that could be interpreted as 'capitulation' or 'wash out' selling. Never been sure on that idea. High positive volume day on Friday followed up well today. Candles have shortened their range. Short term its technically trending with higher high following higher low. Feels Kath and Kim I like what I see.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    I got a piece at 2.25 so I'm not out too badly. By all accounts it's a good profitable company that deals in discretionary spending with exposure to the US where the economy is supposed to be improving.

    I'm not super comfortable with owning gaming machine stock but I think it's fundamentally a good investment.

    If we do see s new low I might grab some more at $2. Cant hurt to have a little exposure to a company has international revinues while the Australian economy has a shaky looking future.
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    AGI looking better by the day. Volume's not there yet, and a pullback's not out of the question before a confirmed break above 2.25
    But it's developing healthily, my view.
    That's daily, but weekly and monthly still indecisive.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_3_mth_dec_24.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  13. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    It could be developing a rounding bottom but you would have to see momentum and volume pick up in the next week of trading days for it to break through the resistance, if that happens (volume and momentum) you could see a light pull back forming a cup and saucer formation which if confirmed would take it to a minimum of just under $3
     
  14. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Up 5.7%
    Groovy
    2.25 did not resist at all! Low volume though. Maybe resistance soon at 2.40? I might add a few if there's a pullback.

    3 mth dly AGI
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_3_mth_dly.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  15. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    be careful volume is very low
     
  16. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Rally, rested in a 'pennant', burst out yesterday, confirmed today.
    Confident buying has pushed price over significant 2.50

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_3_mth_jan_15.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  17. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    I saw that. I'm in two minds about taking profit, 10% in a month isn't bad and I'm worried that the general market downturn will drag it down even though agi has US market exposure. I think it looks good fundamentally but if the asx keeps falling I might have a chance to get it back at 2.25 again...thoughts?
     
  18. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Daily it looks strong, but weekly and esp monthly it still looks weak. It's a risk to hold, but personally I would risk what will happen over a few days before selling. But of course that's just what I would do with my particular risk tolerance in trading. I tend to hold on longer than is healthy and regard everything as an investment. You could set a mechanical stop loss I guess, but they have these programs don't they for cleaning out stop losses if they are accumulating. If that 10% is important to you I would take it.

    I looked at the monthly today and a couple of months ago it fell well outside the volatility band. I now take that as a warning until there is heaps of confirmation the bottom is in.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_agi_mthly_jan_15.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  19. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    that daily chart you posted is a cup and handle formation that has broken to the upside with volume.
    Its pretty good chance of getting back to $3 if that is correct (stop loss at or under 2.50).
    ot seems pretty textbook so should at a minimum touch or retest $3.. don't worry about the weekly or monthly if you are trading
    stop loss just below the lip of the cup and target 2.95?
     
  20. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    This swiss thing has pushed it down a little with everything else, still 11% profit but I think I'll wait and hope the market shakes it off and gets back to normal next week once the FX shock has worn off.
     

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