Hey guys, first post here. Without some pictures the speculation is useless. So- here is attached. One scenario suggesting ~12.00 I've got a much older one that puts it around $7, but that seems too low in regards to inflation now vs inflation then. About 4 scenarios putting $16 as the top until we push mid $13's. That's invalidated if spot can close a day above $16.10. If so I'd expect it to push towards $17 and a half or so look forward to chatting
Not sure how to edit, or if I can. The idea is simple Fibonacci harmonics. AB will sometimes see a retrace of ~50%, then reverse and complete the same length leg (CD) If there's a way to edit posts someone inform me.
I love technical analysis. If it goes up it's going to go up more and if it goes down it's going to go down more. One can't really be wrong then can they. I remember reading a book that said people who claim to be able to predict what's going to happen do one of 3 things: A) Make a lot of different calls. Some of them will be right. B) Make just one call. It'll eventually be right. C) Make a vague call that can be interpreted either way. There might have been a 4th but can't remember what it was.
D) claim that something happened in the past went exactly as you had predicted earlier. You don't even have to make calls in advance and your accuracy rate will always be 100%
Silver spot has reached the upper bound of a major downtrend channel; which is about us$16. The first breakout try failed as expected; and Silver futures report last week saw massive short position buildup by Commercial Traders/Banksters. Depending on how large speculators act, silver might try us$16 again; but odds are not favoring a breakout.
Yah I noticed it didn't breakout either, but i think the manufacturing issues will insulate some of the physical price temporarily, how long, I'm not sure. I'm currently selling my middle premium gov't issue coins where the premiums have grown to prep for the drop in price, should it happen, if manufacturing catches up with the lower spot. Also converting some to fractional graded gold, which will hopefully insulate a major drop in spot but trying to pick up deals.
I think you are absolutely right here, premiums are simply still too high. It's all going to happen once some of the cheaper metal comes through the stocks of the mints, but with premiums so high right now it is hard to imagine that there will be anything other than reluctance by the mints to sell cheaper product while the demand is strong. And until that cheaper product is in the hands of the dealers then it's all moot. Demand (and thus premiums) are starting to drop in the US, but it's going to be a while until we see the flow through locally. I note that a couple of the smaller dealers are out of stock of the lowest premium silver they have - e.g. 11th Round has no generic rounds at all and no ASEs and only a few tubes of Maples left. BullionList is out of maples completely and is selling generic NTR Buffies at higher prices than Noah's Arks! I don't think dealers will be stocking until there is a market movement (most likely down, or a breakout upwards occurs). They do not want to be stuck with higher cost stock. I like what you are doing and I hope your strategy pays off for you. I have reduced my purchase volumes and am accumulating only the lowest premium metal I can get my hands on. Generic rounds, RCM/OPM 10oz bars, kilobars and picking up the odd couple of ounces of unallocated when the price drops in the evenings so I can convert to physical. Conversely, I am also adding into local Allocated Gold with a clear FOC withdrawal right which I have tested (and inspected) previously.
I think this is the main thing. Demand is down because the holiday season is starting up, many are saving to spend on sales. So there's this weird limbo right now. If deals come out, there's money to buy. IF they come out or like you said IF it spikes higher. I think people are waiting for deals. THe premiums have done their duty and controlled buying to acceptable levels. I'm not sure if this has ever happened before. Any long timers have history/experience with this scenario? I'm admittedly green when it comes to long-term experience. Interesting. I've never used unallocated or allocated. I'll have to check it out. Cheers!
I think Leon's short term calls are more accurate than any other posters here. And he does it without name-calling and arguing with all who disagree. Jim
The market is waiting for a signal. I'd hate to be a dealer right now and have stocks running down while the market goes sideways. The default trend is down at this point in time, no matter that we are up higher than a month ago and the AUD has added a couple of cents to reduce the spot rise. That just keeps them even more nervous and will stop them ordering. I think you are right on the money regarding premiums, but we only ever got to that point as spot dropped triggering retail demand for bullion. Added to the mix was the fact that the mints were coming around to the end of their cycles - Perth only had remaining stock of 2015 Kookas for example and were gearing up for the 2016 release and they pretty much sold out prior to the stock hitting the market. Retail market got the wobbles and then bought up whatever they could - 10oz and kilobars mainly. Premiums have finally quelled the demand as you point out, but we also now have good stocks of the 2016 Kookas to placate the market. There are still a number of local dealers with no or very low stock in some international bullion, and that will remain until there is a price signal - either a reasonable breakout or something like a heavy drop back to USD$15 or below. In the meantime, Kookas are good buying for us here in Australia as they are priced well under Maples and ASEs. In the US, there are much more reasonable premiums across the board as the retail market cools and new stock flows into the market. We really need some international stock with lower premiums to entice people into buying. It's just that you can grab ounces in the lower dips of the day - usually in the evenings here in Australia. Last night's big drop happened later than usual. My trigger is to watch for a 15c drop in AUD terms and then confirm my unallocated account has had the same drop, then strike. Every little bit counts - you still need to pay your redemption premium but if the ounces cost you less than the current spot price at redemption then it's a good way to buy.
Today's silver weekly futures report showed that commercials/Banksters kept increasing short position and reducing long position. The short/long ratio has hit 2.5:1 Smackdown scheduled next week
Yes, that price jump overnight signalled it for next week. The first serious jump into 22/16 territory - in USD it held for 2 hours before they came in and squished it. AUD dropping 4/10th's of a cent at the same time meant our fall was rather less. Damn.
Smackdown is a sudden price drop within an hour or even less. If you think it is still higher than 24 hours ago; how about 2 years :lol:
