8 year recessionary slump will soon hit Aus. Can you go the distance?

I expected PM prices to rise during a recession like the 2008 GFC. After it happened people were selling everything in their portfolios which included paper PMs that temporarily caused PMs to stay down, then a year or so later they jumped to that all time high of $49

Next GFC will soon be here me think. So that is why I stack. If the same thing happens again, I double, treble my money in quick time. And I can laugh at CJ with his sideways

 

Biblical end times!

 

You will bet bored

 

i doubt there will be a rush to gold & silver its still too foreign too most people. They only know it as jewelry not money

 

Sounds like something an old boring person would say

 

I think this is all a bit dramatic.

Don't get me wrong, I am a pessimist when it comes to the global financial situation and I know Australia will be badly affected by the Chinese downturn but we're in a lot better shape than plenty other big Western countries.

We still have the option to reduce interest rates to zero to stimulate the economy and we also have the option to introduce Quantitative Easing (a.k.a. Money Printing) to steal wealth from savers and prop up the welfare state.

The biggest risk to Australia IMHO is a global financial system collapse. If the global system holds up though I think Australia will follow the US and Europe along the "stimulus" path and be able to head off a recession for some time to come yet.

 

Everywhere has it's negatives, but many places can work well depending on your values.

It's in the list below. It's irrelevant though, everyone has different values, morality and goals. If you want to relocate you have to find a place that works for you. Here's a list of places that may be of interest:

Singapore
Panama
Monaco (if you happen to be rich)
Hong Kong
Andorra
Malaysia
Philippines

I'm pretty sure reno lived in the Philippines for a while and found out the issues with it first hand. Singapore is an EASY transition if you are not big on roughing it/different languages but be expected to pay for the privilege (taxation is still quite reasonable though and honestly, if you are average in Singapore I think you could do worse). Malaysia has an easy visa scheme and is a cheap flight back to Australia too. Thailand is a good option if you are a retiree or don't mind a bit of a grey area on your visa. European options are, well, in Europe - but if the Euro shits itself it could be a good thing. Panama could be a brilliant opportunity, it's fairly safe for the region and the weather is pretty good. etc.

Loads of options out there. All just depends on what you want from a place.

 

There are some very astute views in here if you look hard enough.

Personally, I have a new job with a higher rate of pay which is international in nature and the business relies on a multiple recurring revenue streams. On that side, I am feeling quite a bit more secure and have good prospects moving forward for a career path. I also clear my outstanding debts in the next few months.

Out of downturns like the one postulated to be coming, opportunities will arise. While many will be burnt as cheap credit comes home to roost (I'm old enough to remember the recession we had to have), those with little-to-no debt and cash/liquid assets will have opportunities to get into the market as panic sets in.

In the GFC, I am proud to say that I was able to buy into CBA for 2c off the bottom at something like $26.88 per share, and BHP below $30 per share and was able to ride both up to significant profits. I also expect the market movements to be broadly the same as the GFC falls. I will continue to stack metal and also put the remainder into cash holdings with interest ready to strike if opportunities arise. I will be looking for real deflation and once that occurs I will be looking to metals and stocks once they stop falling.

Real estate may be another source of gains, I know the Government will fight hard not to let property values fall but I feel that they may not be able to stop it. I don't think we will see $5K houses for sale like many parts of the US did during the GFC but there will be some serious pain in Melbourne in terms of apartments and smaller houses, and to a lesser extent in Sydney. We probably need to see prices revert to GFC levels in both cities trigger by higher interest rates and foreclosures to bring back some semblance of normality to the market.

The trick for us is to be informed, alert and ready.

 

^^^^Australians have the one of highest private debt levels in the world..Also our bank have to borrow offshore to finance our housing borrowings, credit cards etc. Thank god we have super but where are these funds invested?

Also how much are our major banks exposed to Derivatives (world wide estimates derivatives to be between 700 trillion and 2 quadrillion dollars)..These are probably hidden from current balance sheets.

A recession would be a great outcome but IMO it will be much worse, THE GREATEST DEPRESSION LOOMS.

Most people can't see it coming but bail ins, super funds collapsing, welfare cut to the bone will be the order of the day.

Lets see if the red and blue team do as far as financial bribes are concerned before the next election.

Already the masses are calling for more child care money, more money for domestic violence, just to name a few.

All the states have unfunded super except Qld and the Federal Government. Peter Costello is looking after the Federal future fund after socking away monies gained from the sale of Telstra. However these funds may well be gone especially if invested in the wrong shares.

Toughen up Australians, the bell for round 1 will go soon.

Regards Errol 43

 

Hmmm... now I wonder what the government will do with such a high percentage of the voting electorate having such a huge debt level. Take more from savers for a bail out of those in debt? Add another levy to tax-paying workers?

 

+1 for Singapore.

BUT.... what is true today may not be true tomorrow, especially in a major economic collapse. Of the countries listed, I'd look for ones without major population pressure on available land and food resources, without significant destruction of arable land, and without deep ethnic or religious divides.

You want somewhere where, if things get too bad, people can spread out and go back to the land, taking some pressure off the cities.

You know what that means? Australia and New Zealand are ideal, especially if you start preparing now.

 

One thing I've learned is that in grim times, expats are holding their noses and looking for any sort of a paddle to get back home where they have some rights and supports.

 

so maybe i should keep my savings in the bank near $0 so there's nothing to bail in and then enjoy a mortgage subsidy

 

Agreed - again everyone sees this sort of thing differently. I am not concerned about a single weekend where the entire world goes from developed to ABSOLUTE COLLAPSE where we are all tearing each other's limbs off to eat because there is just no food to eat. I think the real trick is being ready to mobilise - go and jump on a plane/boat/car (depending on the country you are in) and leave when times get tough, rather than staying in your home country and going down with the ship so to speak.

It's all costs at the end of the day. What is the cost of living in Singapore now? What is the cost of living in Singapore if/when SHTF? What is the cost of living in Australia now? What is the cost of living in Singapore if/when SHTF?

In hindsight it seems to me that the smart option was living/working in Singapore while paying down a mortgage on a falling AUD on some farmland in Australia.

 

^^^ Good points. Be flexible, be ready to move.

 

I'm pissed off the government hav'nt called a recession already after the downturn in the mining sector.

But I suppose the RE market being so healthy only so recently there are obviously people out there with some sort of financial security/jobs.

I think thats all going to change come 2016.

 

Can't quit my job to travel/study because I get paid too well.
Recession/Depression and getting sacked would probably do wonders for my overall health (for a few years at least)

 

How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World

 

Yes yes this book!! I'm reading it at the moment and also vagabonding by rolf potts..

 

old enough to know better young enough to do it again . just havent decided where yet . i'l keep you young whippersnappers posted with a warts & all commentary