Bit of insight from Turk and King on this current action http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Taking_on_Silver_Shorts_is_Very_Bullish.html
+1 Though I have noticed a distinct lack of bullish sentiment since New Year in here... Reading Nov posts compared to now is like chalk and cheese....
Silver is not going to drop forever, the underlying economic problems are still there. The US dollar has rallied a bit due to the sacrifice of the European currency. We are still at and have passed Peak World Oil Production and there is no way to fix that...the PetroDollars will eventually become worthless....making gold and silver worth their weight.
I can't remember the details, it was ages ago, but aurora use to counter 100orBust calls for a rally to $100 for silver and fair enough to. It use to get the newbie pumped up and at risk of getting burnt. Not even sure if the bets was actually on or not now. Can't say I bother reading much of his stuff except for lately that agstacker and 100orbust have a bit of a tiff going. Their forum must of folded I suppose and they seem to be back on kitco all the time now.
peak oil is a myth. oil production is simply currently monopolised by a cartel... what do you think iraq was actually about? the price of oil will only go to the sky because of the dollar turning into dust. other than that the price will only go as high as meets their profit targets, any higher and sales drop off and they will be forced down. regarding silver price, if you look at the charts when the big drop happened earlier this week you could actually see stair-steps, i think 7 big players all working in concert? i personally don't see silver dropping below 28, the simple fact comex doesn't have even a small fraction of claims on silver means ultimately they can't keep the price down. natural disasters are gonna further hammer fiat currencies as essential commodities rise in price due to failed production over the next year and combined with quantitative easing the precipice of potential hyperinflation beckons ever closer. but i'm not gonna mind if the price drops back, i started stacking at 24.
I had to go back into my Kitco past to trawl over the "bet" I had with 100orbust. Nothing came of it because he wouldn't take the bet otherwise I would be 10oz richer today. I am not a betting man so I bet him a very modest 1oz of silver that his prediction wouldn't come true. He tried to blow me off by upping the ante with a 10oz bet. I called his bluff and then he wouldn't take the bet. If you are not prepared to put money on your prediction then it worth zip no matter how charismatic your personality may be. https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=13751 Nothing has changed since then except we have a new generation of "Gurus" still spouting more hype and ready to wreck financial havoc with another fresh crop of newbies. I do put my money where my mouth is! Almost every week, I spend the profits I make from my business into stacking more silver. Just dollar cost average my stack. Still the best way in my opinion to stack.
No..unfortunately peak oil is not a myth...we all wish it were. Here in Canada they are now trying to extract large quantities of thick tar from the sand and sandstone deposits in the northern part of our country. The energy return on this is about 1:1...not much to be gained. Other countries, including Canada are now forced to drill for oil in 25 thousand feet of sea water off their coasts. If there were still plenty of easy to get to oil gushing out of the ground with a return of 1 barrel of energy to get 50 to 100 out of the ground we would not be taking oil from the unfruitful and rather bizarre locales....it is t he same for any industry...forestry for example...you take the easy to get logs on the flat valley floor before you log the mountain sidle slopes. As for the oil cartels, more oil is produced by independent nations and companies than by OPEC...OPEC has pretty much lost control of the ability to keep the oil prices down. Saudi Arabia has likely already peaked in production and the only spare capacity they have is what they say they have...and what they say about as reliable as paper silver....take their last statement...they are "cutting production by 70,000 barrel/day because the world is over supplied"....last I checked, too much of something generally means a lower price....they are cutting production because they can no longer maintain the flow rates. Last I read, they are getting something like 9-11 barrels of sea water for every barrel of oil now...the sea water they are retrieving is what they are pumping in the wells to keep the pressure up....they are in essence flushing the last of the oil from their reservoirs. Iraq was all about the oil...it has one of the few large reserves of easy to get to free flowing oil left on the planet....hence the US had to try and take it before the Russians and Chinese did...Sadman Hussein was going to give them the rights rather than the US...now he is dead. Oil prices will rise until it impacts the worlds economy too greatly, then there will be a mini crash, oil demand will fall and prices will come back down, cheap prices will the reignite more consumption, the price will again rise, a crash will occur again...the process will repeat itself all the way to the bottom....the engine is still running but it is rapidly failing. We are now on the back side of of Dr Hubert's curve...and the curve is starting to drop off...it will now drop off more rapidly for a given unit of time.....by 2015 we could be at 1990 levels of production...that will not sustain our economies....by 2020, we could be at production levels of the 1970's when there were only 3 billion or so people on the planet...the 6 or 7 billion people we have now will all be fighting and dying for the scarce resources. It makes no difference what Bernake, or anyone else tries to do to either band-aid the problem at the surface or out right lie to us...the underlying problem for everything we are now experiencing is energy...and the glass is now half empty....there is nothing on this planet that is in enough quantity to supply the energy density of light sweet crude...not solar, not wind, not nuclear, not hydro electric...NOTHING!! It is like ants to a sugar pile...all goes well until the sugar runs out. That is why an ounce of silver and and ounce of gold will always be worth exactly that....it was here before us, and it will be here long after we are gone....get your hands on it while you still can and get it before no amount of paper money will be able to buy it....the price will be constantly attacked and manipulated form now until the actual end of the current financial/monetary system...the only prediction that you can be sure of as to price is that it will eventually have infinite value as compared to the dollars of today.
Wish I could take all the credit but for those who have yet to see this, Professor Al Bartlett pretty much lays out why we are in the situation we now find ourselves with simple math and even simper to understand concepts...show this to your families...There are 8 parts to his presentation, it gets real interesting when he talks about energy....in fact it is down right scary...and he nailed most of it exactly. Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9znsuCphHUU Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BMEImNf9M8 Part 3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fG_PL-dRMA0 Part 4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3LryW47B_M Part 5 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmfXfx3XKsI Part 6 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oalwwtlYjE Part 7 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW_cPRWpDB8 Part 8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90VgHSZa-2M
Ahhh the exponential function. It's been covered in quite a few doco's recently on YouTube and most definitely applies today. Even the Mayan's recognised this period in their calendar and future predictions. We're just on that sharp curve of the exponential right now... it'll get very ugly very soon.
Bartlett worked on the Manhattan Project - very smart guy. I remember the key point from that series on the exponential function was the magic number 70 in working out the time to doubling. Basically you take an annual rate, lets say a price growth of 10% per year, and divide it into seventy to get the time to doubling. In this case, 10/7 = 7. So at a 10% annual growth rate, it takes 7 years for the price to double. Bartlett described the function in peak oil but it also very handy in day to day life.
He is a very good orator even my relatives who normally wouldn't sit through this type of presentation found him interesting enough to see it through to the end.
I didnt realise Bartlett worked on the Manhattan project! I emailed Dr Bartlett last June and he indicated the prediction of the date of the peak of world oil production is closely related to the size of the estimated remaining oil reserves and that there is large uncertainty in the estimates of the remaining reserves. Make of that what ye will ....
My wife's uncle is a geologist, he spends his time on various oil rigs around the world, analysing core samples from drillings. When i mentioned the topic of peak oil to him last year, he told me it was a joke, and that many large oil reserves are being found all the time. I didn't really press him on this point ("Why aren't these finds publicised?" etc) as much alcohol was being consumed at the time ... That, and i was busy having a go at him about why he supported the US invading Iraq, and Aust sending troops in support. Looong night.
off topic, but a nice quote from a paper on his website: if the size of a population grows while the size of its representative governing body remains constant, the annual rate of decline of democracy is at least equal to the annual rate of the growth of the population food for thought I would not argue for more politicians though, just more representation sometimes less is more
But if you look at the obvious conclusion (that less population is key to real sustainability) then you'd have to consider what's being done on a macro level to address the problem. In other words, polularist policy driven towards the left column, whilst the larger agenda for governments being in the right column. The bad part is, who the hell gives the authorities the right to decide who lives and dies? Relating back to Silver however, can people see how the exponential function (especially in relation to Silver reserves & energy costs) will impact Silver values in the future. Let's face it, Solar tech might be a shitty alternative to oil, but when there's no oil to be found at any cost....
