2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Hotel industry going down, down, down... some are suggesting that many hotels will be transformed into "something else", like homes etc.
    I expect the same with office spaces... gosh, Mahattan, Tokyo, Los Angeles, Sydney, London, Hong Kong, Singapore... will be all affected

     
  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You know I was passing by the Marina Bay sands a month or so ago, and a lot of hotel rooms lights were lit up, so I was wondering where the people came from since there are no tourists. They were filled with local people. Unbelievable but it's true.

    In Singapore, there's a concept of staycation, people just booked hotel rooms and imagine themselves to be on a vacation. When you live on a small island with nowhere to go, it's fun even to stay in a hotel room.

    https://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2020/06/str-hotels-struggle-with-may-lows/

    Mainland China
    Occupancy: -33.7% to 45.2%
    ADR: -24.5% to CNY342.78
    RevPAR: -50.0% to CNY155.03

    Singapore
    Occupancy: -8.8% to 71.5%
    ADR: -62.5% to SGD95.44
    RevPAR: -65.8% to SGD68.20
     
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  3. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Crazy crowds in the malls. Video was taken late Aug. I can tell you the crowds have increased by at least 20-30% since the video was taken.

     
  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The currently unfolding crisis will dreadfully affect certain countries:

    UAE: office spaces, hotels, financial institutions occupy all those skyscrapers... the country will be hit hard (the country's airlines are cutting jobs and less tourists are arriving, but they still have oil! ...which is nowadays "too cheap")

    Malta: tourism drives the economy... primarily... besides fishing, sea transport, some finance... so it's dreadful for Malta

    Spain: tourism is a vital part of the economy, but they also have a strong industry, while transportation also plays an important role in the economy (tourism and transportation have already declined)

    Thailand: the car industry and tourism drives the Thai economy (besides food production, microelectronics, finances etc.), so if less cars are made and less tourists visit Thailand, then what?

    Singapore: tourism, office real estate, transportation all affected

    Panama: all those shiny skyscrapers with expensive office space, the sea transportation (of course)... all that to go way down in a country that has almost nothing else to offer besides bananas


    How are your countries affected?
     
  5. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Really? Locals stay there?

    I remember when I was there on top of the hotel. Didn't stay at Marina Bay Sands, just admired the views from up there. :D
     
  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Locals and foreigners working here. 60% or more of working people are foreigners.
     
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Aerospace is badly hit with layoffs. Air travel has been reduced but there are still flights to Chinese and Indian cities. Office real estate won't be badly affected as there was a severe shortage prior to the pandemic. The same with hotels, they would recover very quickly. Singapore has very few tourist class hotel rooms hence the ridiculous room rates. The hotels in HK are cheaper in comparison, lots of options. Airbnb is also illegal here so hotels are like oligopolies. No one is losing rent from no tourists.

    Manufacturing is doing well with increase in exports over prior year year to date. It's quite a feat if we consider that aerospace and shipyard, oil rig manufacturing are down, which means that pharma and electronics are up big time, double digit growth. I've know quite a couple of people working in manufacturing, they are complaining of the overtime and factories are operating at full workforce capacity.

    So far, I've not heard of anyone lost their job, or any business having to close but pay cuts are common, it appears that even companies profiteering from the pandemic are cutting pay! At the moment, you won't know that there's a pandemic or recession if you come to Singapore, the malls are packed with crowds and dinners, but everyone wearing masks. I was out last weekend, I've never seen so many people outside dining and shopping.

    Of course things could change if there's a financial crisis.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2020
  8. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    We sent 100 people home today for mandatory testing, I’m not allowed back into the building till my result. I can tell you how it effects me - I’ll still get the job done but I’ll be twice as mad and twice as tired. My consumption of goods goes down as balanced (not) lifestyle suffers.
     
  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Biggest financial news of the month that MSM don't report.
    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/evergrande-faces-crisis-confidence-over-061449102.html

    A home builder that makes electric cars?
    https://www.scmp.com/business/marke...ectric-car-unit-raise-us516-million-least-six

    Imagine buying a unit a month ago and it's now 12% cheaper.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-discount-idUSL4N2G40PZ

    Meanwhile, back home.
    https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/pro...-sales-in-august-highest-since-september-2019
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2020
  10. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/manpower/suntec-singapore-retrenches-85-employees-with-events-suspended-since-april
    SINGAPORE - Nearly half of the employees of Suntec Singapore Convention and Exhibition Centre (Suntec Singapore) have been retrenched amid the ongoing decimation of the meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions (MICE) industry.

    The venue said on Thursday (Aug 27) the 85 workers, consisting of 60 Singaporeans and permanent residents and 25 foreign staff members, were employed in food production, sales and events, human resources, and finance.

    With the retrenchment exercise, Suntec Singapore will have a remaining workforce of 89 local staff and four foreign staff.
    .
    Hotels were used to house those people coming back with their 14 days stay for at least > 2 months
    so they were occupied and not vacant
    .
    Government pay subsidy 75% for below 4.6k https://www.straitstimes.com/politi...nnounced during,those in tourism and aviation.
    .
    small cash hand out here and there
    .
    hope the number of daily infections remains < 20
     
  11. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Things look good and busy here in colorado.
    Tons of tourists and the hunters are coming in now.
    We are having a hard time finding hotels to stay at for work because it's so busy, like a normal summer.
    Everything seems pretty normal as far as that goes.
    I've noticed alot of vehicles for sale along the highways more than usual. I see them everywhere now.
    It seems weve recovered quite well and everyone is doing good again.
    Back to the good old days of strongest economy in history and cheap silver!

    We had a few businesses close on main street but they have been reopened by others already.
     
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  12. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I bought a little US hotel REIT a month ago for fun, prices went up a little and down again. After seeing your post, might add a little more. The pandemic is only temporary, will be over by 4th Nov.
     
  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    What's Nov 4th?
     
  14. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    Shame it's all on fire
     
  15. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mate the US is not ok right now..
     
  16. Little_Mountain

    Little_Mountain New Member

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    Care to share the name? I always enjoy throwing a few bucks, outside the standard investment strategy.

    I’m in Inland Empire of Southern California (Riverside County) and we are still struggling. Schools are still in distance learning, virus cases continue popping up in large clumps & numbers in more conservative areas. California still has strict guidelines in place, and it wasn’t until just this past week that movie theaters and barber shops opened.

    It’s been tough, but I don’t think we’ve seen the top yet. It was barely a month ago that protections ran out, so I suspect beginning with September’s end and moving in to the next couple of months, we will see even worse numbers, as it pertains to unemployment, car payments, mortgages, etc. Add to that an election, which is going to throw even more chaos in to EVERYTHING, and the US has the ingredients for the making of a problem unlike we’ve yet to see. That’s not to say that seeing a healthy recovery in the near-term can’t happen, but in my locality, we’re a long way from that.

    As an aside, none of the shops have large amounts in stock. I should say, many DO have minimal stock, but premiums are through the roof and insulting.
    - ASE’s $38-40
    - 90% at almost 30x face
    - odds and ends (bars and rounds) still over $31, while spot closed at $23 for the weekend. Remember...these amounts are USD, so for many of you guys in Australia, that’s well over $50/oz.
     
  17. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ when vintage Ag is similarly priced to ASE, we will take it first (manufactured 30-50 years ago)
    lucky not all dealers are interested to post outside the country
    don't think things will ever improved and back to the old days, situations have transformed
    the market focus have shifted, BRI would become increasingly in focus, 1USD Trillion dollar project after all
     
  18. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I only go to a select few stores that reject the mask stuff.
    Our grocery stores and walmart dont care, gun shops dont, bullion shops dont, gas stations same. Weed shops dont care, liquor stores mostly dont care, the rest dont get my money.
    The smart businesses want customers' money and look past it.
    Metals have been around spot or a few bucks over. The peace dollars I got the other day were $19 usd each which is awesome.
     
  19. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I bought HST and PK a month ago, very small amounts. PK is above my cost price, but HST is down about a couple percent. HST is supposed to be the least likely to go bust, has the strongest balance sheet. PK has better upside but more risky. Just for punt. If there’s an October surprise, I’ll average down.

    There had been various approaches by governments. From North Korean style where anyone who breaks home quarantine is shot on the spot to virtually no control like what happened in Italy and New York earliwe this year. Of course, now, the opposite is happening in NYC, restaurants still not allowed to do in-dining despite minimum cases. In Singapore, in-dining is allowed, but restaurants need to open all their entrance doors and windows.

    Six months on, it is clear that mandatory masking up and contact tracing followed by quarantine works to reduce the spread. Lock down alone is not sufficient and is damaging to businesses. They have done this in Victoria but because the rules were introduced too late, it took longer to curb the virus and most people can't stay indoors for more than 1-2 months. The earlier the government acts on it, the better, just like Taiwan where they nipped it in the bud within days. Why were they able to do it? Because the Taiwanese intelligence was already tracking and studying the virus even in December. They had medical exchanges with hospitals in Wuhan.

    The Japanese were able to deal with the virus with surprising little government intervention, but it will take a very disciplined and cooperative society to observe social distancing and masking up without legal enforcement.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2020
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  20. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The consumption economy is going to be over. The first bricks are falling.
    There is going to an "equalizer", which will reset the financial system and transfer wealth not only between people, but also between
    industries and products.

    We can say goodbye to 7 $ Starbucks coffees, we can say goodbye to expensive "eating out" with gold diggers and going to expensive cinemas.
    Hookers are already cheaper, so are wristwatches, DSLR cameras, sneakers and even cars!...

    Sadly, we can also say goodbye to cheap flights, meat will cost more and fresh fruit produce as well.
    Electricity bills will be higher.

    Laptops, cellphones and fridges will not become cheaper.
    Fast food chains will still thrive, but will have more delivery services.

    I believe many expensive hotels will be either downsized into budget hotels or transformed into apartments.
    Many luxury hotels chains will go bankrupt.

    Office real estate businesses will go bankrupt, far less office space will be needed. More people will work from home.
    In fact, people will prefer to work for companies that offer work from home possibilities.

    What will happen to offices spaces in high-rise buildings?
    Similarly to hotels, they will be transformed into "something else" or will get torn down.

    In an extreme case scenario I see "Detroitification" in dozens of major cities (potentially hundreds across the world). "Escape from New York" or other dystopian decline.

     
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