2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Dealers want to sell at a higher price!

    So they pretend they don't have and/or "it's on the way" or "it's already been sold out".
    Some dealer shops closed BEFORE schedule and stayed closed for days without any reason/explanation whatsoever since gold hit 1,500 $.

    They can't handle the truth.

    Gold is going up and they just sit on their stock waiting late-January and February spikes. It will probably slam 1,600 $ until the end of February.
    They want to make big bucks.

    Why? Because thirst will keep growing and they'll be able to make extra 100-200 $ per each ounce. If a dealer sells 1,000 until spring 2020, that's a 200,000 $ gain on top.
    It's a rare opportunity for them in years.

    So they sit on the gold or just lie about not having in stock.
     
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  2. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    people can have lots of money, so they can buy up the entire ready stocks fast
    dealers can always orders from the mint etc their suppliers

    the explanation would be, stocks got cleanup faster than dealers could restock them
    if dealers are hoarding stocks, they are not doing their business but jump in speculating with the crowds
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2019
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Behold: today I went out to buy various products for the New Year celebration.

    Went to 5 shops and certain types of products were almost entirely sold out. Which made me think of a so-called "SHTF scenario".

    So, I went around the shops to look around and see what's been sold out...

    Basically there was almost no meat (except left-overs, some tiny chicken wings...). Some fish was left, because it's not a good habit to eat fish before or immediately after New Year (superstition: good lucky can slip away or swim away if one consumes slippery fish).

    Drinks (including champaigne, wine) were almost entirely sold-out.

    But there were plenty of dairy products, sweets, basically a wide range of "fake food" (including Snickers and M&M's etc.).

    Conclusion: "real food" got sold-out 80-90 % due to high demand.

    Now: imagine a calamity lasing days, weeks...
     
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  4. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    That's interesting. If a holiday can clean out the shelves what else could happen if no supply trucks were to come.
     
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  5. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. And I never saw this, not like this.

    They cleared fresh meat products from like 3-4 shops, almost entirely. 3-4 leftovers were left (usually poor, flawed or expired products).
    Same with eggs, many fresh vegetables, champagne, wine, bread...

    "Good" news (for food stackers): there was plenty of canned food left, as well as coke, chocolate, instant noodles and instant soups, spices, water, soft drinks...

    Yes, if some "collapse" or natural catastrophe occurs, then food will disappear from the shelves. Guaranteed, sadly. Now I saw it with my own eyes how it happens.

    And, in the first phase - if people see food/water disappearing, then they put the pedal to the hoarding... and they hoard and hoard and hoard until none is left for anyone else! Greedy human nature...
     
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  6. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Usually nothing will happen but it's better to have some basic comforts and necessities. When the power goes out for a few weeks it can spell disaster for some.
     
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  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    its common for the shelves to be emptied during festive seasons, particularly when the town is crowded and the supermarket size is rather small
    they built many x-tra large ones now, some even open 24 hrs
    everyone is just in time delivery, 3 days stocks etc
     
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  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    You experienced that in Singapore?

    Wow, I guess holidays have more impact on islands.
     
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  9. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    yes, last minute disappointment, they ran out of many can foods .all shelves were blank emptied .ended up for the pizza hut
    that was many years ago, seldom see it now - may be robots are super efficient
    9 pm the workers would top up supply again, and I went at 9:30pm...they close at 11pm
     
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  10. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Doesn't really make sense as they can profit now and profit later. This theory discounts how dealers work via hedging. They will have the same margin whether gold is 2k or 3k an ounce.
     
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  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    What I meant was: instead of selling for 1,600 $ and ounce, they can wait 2-3 weeks and sell for 1,680 $ an ounce. They drag on the time a little bit and make even more profit. Because: if you're the only dealer in a large city, then people will just... wait... especially if the holiday season is also in the middle.
     
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  12. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Might be something to do with this? https://www.silverstackers.com/foru...going-to-collapse-in-2020.94224/#post-1116671

    I checked the European mint, most of the low premiums 1oz like maples and bars are out of stock but mid premium rm coins like qb and lunars, and larger 100g, 250g and kilobars are still available. Doesn’t look like a run on gold but there is definitely demand from smaller collector.

    If I’m based in Europe, I’ll buy physical gold before they impose taxes on gold bullion like it is done for silver.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2020
  13. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    2029 wild be like 1929
    will there be wars like 1912 1914 etc
     
  14. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    It's very worrying, what you're writing there. Let's hope not!

    Let's just hope it'll be a cold war and things will cool down slowly. Let's hope people are smarter.
     
  15. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Meanwhile, gold has shot up, just like I expected, but even higher than I expected. It's 1,526 $.

    I think 1,600 $ is a naive dream for 2020. Perhaps 1,700 $ is more realistic. But, what if it climbs higher?
     
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  16. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold and silver both went up about 17% in 2019, platinum 23% ;), so if the performance repeats, which is most likely, gold will be $1800 and silver $21, and platinum $1200. Only problem is how much the dollar will be worth against local currency.
     
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  17. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    I think many other currencies are doing a lot worse than dollars. It might seem as a paradox, but the US dollar is still better than the Euro and better than almost any European currency... perhaps the Swiss Franc is better? :)

    "Better" meaning: has become more expensive in recent years and has also shown stability in that.

    So, after PM's, I think the US dollar is the next "good grab".
     
  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Gold is "metally ill", it's 1,540+ $ today as I woke up. It's nuts. It will be 1,600 $ in no time, perhaps until mid-January it'll slam 1,600 $.

    Crazy ride...

    If you invested in PM's and it all goes nicely upwards, it's a bit like winning small lotteries:

     
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  19. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You need move to Thailand or Cambodia to catch gold early in the morning.
     
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  20. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Or... Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji...
     

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