Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.
Is that another Mentos + Cola + Baking Soda + Cactus Juice experiment?
I'm just thinking, given that we are already in longest running economic expansion in history, will it actually continue a lot longer than people think it can?
My spidey sense is starting to tell me that it might have lot of legs left.
I don't expect anything to happen before Trump gets back into office (all but guaranteed given the (lack of) competition), so that's Nov 2020 at a minimum.
Let's hope it runs as long as possible. The higher it climbs the greater it will fall and the longer we can stack. If the wheels stayed on for another ten years you wouldn't hear me complaining. Realistically though your timeline of a year (I say within a year) is probably correct.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
2019 actually reminds me a lot of the year 1999. That worries me somewhat because I was at the tech coalface back then.
Why so confident about Trump getting reelected? He only just scraped in on electoral colleges votes. I don;t think it's unrealistic a Democrat gets elected and promptly fks the stock market.
I was involved in a dot com in 1999, the startup scene at that time was crazier than it is today - 99.9% of the proposals didn't work and no one cared - it was pump and dump. I remembered that people were throwing money at startups and almost everyone knew someone or had a relative that is working in a startup. But when the collapse came, it was isolated within the startup and dot com industry.
The only thing today that was as crazy as back then are cryptos and chinese real estate.
Today we're experiencing something similar: startups everywhere (it's trendy) and most of them are collapsing, digital marketing and ecommerce are in a bubble and no-one is seeing it, while cryptos are like digital casino-game-MLM joke money that's too unreliable and complicated for ordinary people to use (yet another bubble).
Steven Mnuchin Explains Why $1.5 Trillion In $100 Bills Have Disappeared https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/steven-mnuchin-explains-why-15-trillion-100-bills-have-disappeared
^ Central bankers aren’t very bright.
so what will happen this time?
when this 1.5 Trillion in cash, sitting on container ports somewhere
therefore, the case is similar to the time when the USSR broke apart
those who hold the cash, just holding trash...this is a confirmation that re-set would never happen.
remember last time
when BIG money missing, then something BIG happened
the world trade centre banks full of gold vanished, to meet some obligations
Every time an "empire" collapses, there will be internal thieves who loot whatever they can.
This happened in literally all former communist states. The possessions of the dictators disappeared, the country's accounts were emptied... it's hilarious how the rats leave the sinking boat with their bags full.
Watch carefully: Brexit and the decomposing EU (it's falling apart) - many will steal whatever they can as it crumbles to the ground.
It's like collecting the bricks of a house that's being demolished.
After Brexit, several other European countries could follow.
Some basic info regarding the role of gold and silver during an economic crisis:
In mid-November, the German parliament decided on a package of measures to combat money laundering: the limit for the anonymous purchase of precious metals with cash is to be reduced from 10,000 euros to 2,000 euros.The law passed the Federal Council on November 29 and will enter into force on January 1, 2020.
The high demand apparently also affects the premium for coins and bars.According to a report by the industry portal "Goldreporter", the average premium for gold coins of the Krugerrand variety was 6.16 percent on Monday - an increase of 83 percent compared to October 25 this year.
Wow, this is big news. No such restriction in Singapore. Paying cash at LCS is common. No questions asked, or ID will be recorded. The most I’ve seen is usd25k handed over. I’ve no doubt that it’s even possible to buy a 400 oz gold bar with cash. Largest bank note in Singapore is sgd10k, so only 82 pieces needed, just keep in a small envelope to handover. No need carry suite case like you need with RMB the largest is 100 yuan, so need 42,000 pieces to buy 400 oz.
Run on gold in parts of Cologne
I suspect there will be two premium classes going forward. One for retail over the counter and the other higher premium class in the secondary market ie "the anonymity premium".
I have take back what I have said, there’s no restriction on cash payment but if it exceeds sgd20k, identity will be taken. Overhead this from the customer service while collecting the silver I bought in Nov. A young Indian chap, about 30 years old asking to buy 400 grams with cash.
While we stack silver bars, lunars and kooks, Indians stack gold bars. The Chinese stack apartments.
There is somewhat of a gold shortage in Europe, I'm hearing all sorts of news/rumors. Some dealers complaining about their merchandise not arriving in time.
Purchases have picked up quite a bit, but the supply chain can't handle it.
They can't handle the truth!
Might be to beat the 2k euro deadline? Shortage on the retail shop level? We've seen this with silver earlier this year in Australia. From what I've observed, the retailers in Singapore are quite well stocked. From their website, it's possible to buy half a ton of gold in 100g and kilbars with ready stock. But half ton is only worth $24 million dollars, so it can also disappear very quickly. No lack of people able to buy, only problem is where to store it?
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