2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    But have to give credit to ZH for first identifying it as a bioweapon very early in the game.
     
  2. OneDay

    OneDay Active Member

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    This just adds to why I don't trust a word they say.
     
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  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I know that. Both about Tyler Durden and the Bulgarian guy who created Zerohedge :)

    Yes, we can take it with a grain of sand :D
     
  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    This image is so Orwellian. Are they staring out the window looking at the buildings of the Ministry of Love and the Ministry of Truth? :D
     
  5. OneDay

    OneDay Active Member

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    Its the credit reset at the end where all the Debt is cleared ..... Banks falling in Fight Club.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2020
  6. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Roubini now expects the deep slump to occur later this decade. That's when he expects the "L" to come.
    He says that for this year he expects a "U".

    The "traina wrecka is a slow motiona one-a, wonta happen-a this a year-a" - to quote him with his Italiano accento.

    What the hell happened to the "I-drop" that he predicted? We was so sure about it 3 weeks ago.
    The freefall drop won't occur now? I'm amazed.

    He rewrote the script...

     
  7. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Jim Rickards for ages has been promoting a "dumbell" strategy because he wasn't sure if it was going to be a deflationary or an inflationary crash. He seems to have come out in favour of deflation in his most recent piece. He's one guy who seems to have a track record for getting more than his fair share of calls right :-

    https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-this-time-is-different

    He still promotes gold but I sold some of my gold stocks today as I'm not riding them down in the next deflationary wave.
     
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  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    Deflation: for gold or for currency? That's the big question.

    Indeed, the current economic "pause" can give us a major surprise. I'm thinking it could rather be STAGFLATION, not DEFLATION - for the economy overall.

    Increasing unemployment, rising food prices, poor economic performance. This is stagflationary, rather than deflationary.

    But gold is not the same as fiat currency, so it might as well be DEFLATIONARY for gold. We did experience a huge drop in gold's price, which started 7 years ago and went on for years.
     
  9. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Deflation is normally in reference to prices. Typically assets but anything priced in currency. That would mean cash is king.

    No doubt the governments will try to print their way out of this so we still probably get stagflation down the road but to me he seems to be saying that we are in the early stages of a deflationary debt spiral. If he's right I don't think that's good for gold because it means more "margin call" widespread selling of assets. It's probably not too good for bitcoin either but I'm holding firm there for now.
     
  10. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I'm curious about how a deflationary crisis could affect individuals. Usually prices should go down, but I doubt that will be the case and people "sit" on their money, because it's valuable (high purchase power), but there's usually little or no growth, thus little or no inflation... it's a bit hard to comprehend.

    I think we should study the Japanese crisis to understand better how it affected them. Although: it will not affect the rest of the world like it did affect Japan.
     
  11. OneDay

    OneDay Active Member

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    Deflation is not possible with money printing etc at current levels. Food prices to the moon probably alot of other things may become simply worthless.
     
  12. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Certain foods in my area have double the price before the March/April lock-downs. Many technical objects have higher prices. But surprisingly, I am seeing many special offers on laptops, digital cameras and flat-screen TVs... prolly people are not buying certain products.
     
  13. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The 'frog in water' analogy isn't a good one now.. it's more like a hot spring with some pools overflowing, some drying up and some outright geysering depending on where the fed and gov direct the water (fiscal) pressure.
     
  14. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Thing is, many people are preparing and (still) hoard various products. Although in my area only certain hygiene products are rare or even impossible to find, people still hoard food and toilet paper (!).

    The WHO announced today that Corona may be here forever. Great tool for the control of the masses.

    In some countries they will scream "Corona" and the masses will run for cover and venerate "Big Brother".

    Orwell is turning in his grave.

    OUR COVID-19 NEW NORMAL: Arrested, fired & THREATENED for noncompliance of LOCKDOWN & LOSS OF RIGHTS


    Nothing is fully open yet. And some sources announce that nothing will be fully opened, until there is a "cure found". But when is that going to happen?

    WHO says this virus may never go away. So, we're already in the Orwellian dictatorship without knowing?
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2020
  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    We will have all at once this time and with a little socialism mixed in. Trumpflation.
    They are printing another 3 trillion right now and it's already not close to enough.
     
  16. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Australia- Depression:

    832,490 people unemployed.

    1,816,080 people underemployed.


    554,400 additional people have given up looking for a job with the workforce participation rate diving 2.5 percentage points in the last two months.

    This totals 3,202,970 people.

    This is a truly shocking 24.2 per cent of the April labour force.

    Welcome to the depression and the horrors of an economy that is in free-fall.

    The April labour force data confirms what was evident several weeks ago as the queues formed around Centrelink offices and the MyGov website failed – as huge parts of the economy were closed down to deal with the COVID-19 health crisis.

    Taken together, the unemployment and underemployment rates total 19.9 per cent of the workforce.

    This is about as bad as the weakest point for the economy during the 1930s Great Depression where the unemployment rate peaked just below 20 per cent. (There were no data on underemployment at that time.)

    While parts of the economy are slowly being reopened which will help some people regain paid work, it is clear that there are many months – perhaps years – of economic pain to endure before we get back to the position pre-COVID-19, where the unemployment rate was 5 per cent and the underemployment rate was 8.5 per cent.

    The latest Reserve Bank forecasts are for the unemployment rate to still be 6.5 per cent in the middle of 2022. It has not made a forecast for underemployment but even the drover’s dog knows it will be near 10 per cent at that time.

    This is not good enough. In fact, it is an economic disaster.

    And it must be remembered that the economy was floundering even before the COVID-19 crisis hit.

    Data released this week showed annual wages growth slowing to just 2.1 per cent in the March quarter, to be at a rate below inflation.

    If you felt your personal financial position was under pressure before the health crisis, you were probably right because real wages were falling.

    The financial pain for most of the population will be more extreme when the June and September quarter data are released in the months ahead.

    Has the government done enough?
    As has been evident for some time, the Morrison government’s economic stimulus and support measures have been slow to impact the economy – and they have been stingy.

    Look at the human cost in the labour market data and judge whether the government has spent too much or too little?

    This begs a question about policy settings and whether they are appropriate.

    There can be little doubt the government needs to do more to underpin the economy while the crisis is still unfolding, and then deliver stimulus measures to lock in a decent and sustained growth spurt as the COVID-19 pressures pass.

    Getting cash into the economy should be the simple goal.

    Keeping payments to those people out of work and looking to rejoin the labour force is vital.

    Spending on programs that not only help the economy to grow but give a boost to the businesses that provide goods and services is another easy option.

    The list of what can be done, by the government, is long.

    Think of the benefits to society if the government were to commit to the provision of low cost renewable energy to households and business?

    Build desalination plants and dams to ensure the bulk of Australians never have to worry about running out of fresh water ever again.

    Building affordable housing, well serviced by public transport.

    Giving the workforce the skills and education needed to be successful in the 21st century.

    These few items alone would provide a boost to the economy over many years.

    There is also a case for maintaining decent levels for JobSeeker and JobKeeper payments. This keeps a flow of cash into the economy, helping the business sector to maintain profitability and employment levels.

    The economy is in a deep slump and millions of Australians are suffering in this downturn.

    More policy stimulus is needed to not only help those in need but also to engineer an era of strong growth to the point where everyone who wants a job has a job.

    We are about 3 million people away from that goal

    Yahoo Finance​


     
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  17. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    what collapse

    Silver

    Is

    SH!T

    silverisShit.PNG
     
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  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    UN and mainstream media speaking of "FAMINE OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS":


    This is from UN NEWS:

    source of full article: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272

    "Noting that the global spread of COVID-19 this year has sparked “the worst humanitarian crisis since World War Two”, Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP) David Beasley pointed to deepening crises, more frequent natural disasters and changing weather patterns, saying “we’re already facing a perfect storm”.

    As millions of civilians in conflict-scarred nations teeter on the brink of starvation, he said, “famine is a very real and dangerous possibility”."

    " “If we don’t prepare and act now – to secure access, avoid funding shortfalls and disruptions to trade – we could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months.” "


    Although this video is a bit exaggerated and overly religious and "foamy", click-baity, it does make a few serious points:



    In my area I am noticing the following:
    - a tremendous proportion of fresh fruit is of poor quality (around 20-30 % is slightly damaged)
    - beef is rare in shops
    - during and now after the quarantine's lifting: CROWDS are bigger in shops and farmers' markets (up to 4-5x more people): there is plenty of food, but for some reason, people flock in huge numbers
    - many people still overbuy products: they buy huge quantities (much more than they require)
    - shops sell several months-old green products: apples, onions are last year's produce and I don't see almost any of this year
    - local farmers complain of bad weather having ruined their crops/produce etc.
    - semi-prepared foods and ingredients, such as sauces and various packaged foods (like pre-washed packaged green salads) are up to 50-75 % more expensive
    - the eggs available for sale are smaller (one can still find larger size eggs, but they're scarce)
    - cheese is 30 % more expensive
    - olives are 30-50 % more expensive


    TWILIGHT ZONE?


    Other sources speaking of famine:

    Coronavirus: World risks 'biblical' famines due to pandemic - UN
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52373888

    Coronavirus pandemic will cause global famines of 'biblical proportions,' UN warns
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/africa/coronavirus-famine-un-warning-intl/index.html
     
  19. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I dont know where you are but here I have not observed anything like that,

    meat is not hard to get or in short supply and any fruit and vegetable I would normally buy is available in any quantity and eggs are the same size they have always been.
     
  20. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Your posts are Silver.
     

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