Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by HotlineBling, Aug 12, 2016.
I yet to know the design at this moment. It still mint secret.
Either one of them lol. I am awaiting the formal announcement from the mint.
1. Shenyang Mint.
2. Cheng Chao, Nanjing Mint (This could be the right answer).
I seem to remember posting somewhere that I believed the 2016 30 g silver pandas were deliberately priced cheaper to ensure the success of the debased substandard weight. I'm skeptical it will be sustainable against competition that has full standard 1 oz (31.1 g) weights, including competitors within the People's Republic of China's (PRC) own mints. All of the "alternative panda" phenomenon has been a grab at the fiat panda's territory. Shenyang lunar pandas, Shanghai baby pandas (series?), Nanjing pandas, Shenzhen moon festival pandas, and probably others I'm not thinking of at the moment, all owe their existence to the chunk of market share they pulled out of the vacuum left by the end of standard weight fiat pandas.
I have written quite a bit of material about the possibility of the lunar pandas taking over where the fiat pandas left off. That looked very likely at first, but now the mint's decreasing interest in low mintages means they may not be able to grab enough market share to come out on top. The current rumor is the Nanjing pandas might be able to pull it off. Just today, I presented a suggestion for the Nanjing mint to produce a 1 oz silver panda with an authorized mintage of 100'000. I was pleasantly surprised that it was taken seriously, and is being discussed right now!
Even if we think the actual mintage of a Nanjing 1 oz silver panda would never be anywhere close to that high, our current assumptions could be WAY underestimating the power of the Nanjing panda series. The Nanjing mint is the underdog, and they're hungry. Lazy 30 g pandas might not be able to keep up with a full 1 oz panda. Tell me, even if the 30 g silver panda were discounted by exactly the value of the 1.1 grams it is missing, why would you buy a nonstandard panda? The only reason is speculation that the metric weight will catch on worldwide, or at least within China. That has been attempted and failed so many times in the past, I have lost count. The fact the debased fiat panda's top competitors are other pandas from within China mints themselves clearly demonstrates that insiders are actually betting AGAINST the success of the debased pandas.
Still, who knows, maybe the "metric" spin on the bad news about debased pandas might end up turning positive. If the USA, Canada, Australia, or some other major world mint follows China's lead and switches to debased weights, maybe it could catch on. I give it 15% odds of success. It could happen, but I'm betting against it, partly because I still win even if I lose. Even the debased metric weights catch on, the "alternative pandas" of this era will still be very interesting and popular with collectors. Perhaps even more so, in that case. If the alternative pandas come out on top, they'll just be another panda, kind of like how the 1 oz lunars eventually came out on top after the metric lunars failed.
No matter which side you join, all I see is profit potential everywhere. This story is just way too interesting to be ever be forgotten. The 2016 30 g silver pandas have the same 8 million mintage as previous years, even though 2014 and 2015 demand could have supported mintage increases. I suspect the only reason the mintages were NOT increased was because of the plan to debase the pandas in 2016. If the authorized mintages don't increase with demand, then it helps to ensure the debased pandas still sell out, even if demand weakens. Throw in a lower price, lots of market, and plenty of controversy, and voila, barsenault and everyone else who was first in line to buy them made some money.
This is why I LOVE investing in this market.
Apmex is the most expensive dealer in the world these prices are way overrated
Agreed. But they do sell. Lol. eBay is the best gage, and it's not like these fiat panda coins are cheap there either. I'm not all in fiat and I'm not all in non-fiat. I'm not all in low mintage fiat. I'm not all in low mintage non fiat. I'm not all in high mintage fiat, and I'm not all in high mintage non fiat. I'm what thems call it? I think me is diversified in this space. I think some are too narrowly focused on one or the other, but thems are just my opinions.
Why are people buying silver? Is it because it fiat is great and silver with literally meaningless fiat numbers on it is greater? No, it's because people don't trust fiat. That's the ONLY reason anybody cares about shiny metal blocks. I'm amazed at how fast people forget that fact, even while they're obeying fundamental market forces and stacking shiny metal blocks.
Be conscious of what you're doing and why you're doing it. Then do it better.
Oh, I'm very conscious of what I'm doing. Lol. I just opt not to put all my eggs in the basket of non-fiat coins. #nothanks.
Interesting to see what the 2017 panda will look like.
I've been speculating that this was going to happen. Rocky was the designer for the transition phase. Now we get a new designer that will change the style. I'm looking forward to the new design.
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