January 7,498,000 February 3,368,500 March 3,356,500 April 4,087,000 <- crash month, second highest sales of the year so far. May 3,458,500 <- month after, higher sales than february/march June 3,275,000 < lowest sales month, but only 183,500 or 5% lower than may. July 2,531,500 <- 2/3 of month passed, so 3+Moz still possible. Between that mid april crash and now, the price dropped from $27 to $20 (and has even visited $18), that is -26%, while ASE sales dropped 5% The day of the price crash itself (12 april), the ASE sales stood at only 1,712,000, to reach then 4,087,000 at the end of the month. I know, because I log it everyday, exactly to have the numbers available in this hindsight. Here you have april 2013: 2013/04/01 812,000 2,000 0 2013/04/02 812,000 8,000 500 2013/04/03 812,000 16,500 2,000 2013/04/04 812,000 22,500 2,000 2013/04/07 812,000 25,500 3,000 2013/04/08 1,645,000 43,500 4,000 2013/04/09 1,706,500 43,500 4,000 2013/04/11 1,712,000 46,500 6,500 2013/04/12 1,712,000 50,500 7,000 <- price crash 2013/04/16 2,215,000 83,500 9,500 2013/04/17 2,387,000 147,000 18,000 2013/04/18 2,387,000 153,000 19,000 2013/04/19 2,387,000 167,500 21,500 2013/04/23 3,068,000 175,000 28,500 2013/04/24 3,232,000 196,500 33,500 2013/04/25 3,232,000 203,500 35,000 2013/04/28 3,232,000 208,500 36,000 2013/04/29 3,356,500 209,500 37,000 2013/04/30 3,975,500 209,500 37,000 2013/05/01 4,087,000 209,500 37,000 So the suggestion that there is a correlation between ASE sales trend and price trend, is wrong. And these figures are public and touted around all over the pm related community places, so you know them as well as me, so why then suggesting an ASE sales trend correlation with the price trend? Let's now look at the Comex total position difference between mid april and end juni: 09/04/2013 17924 $27.89 25/06/2013 4093 $18,925 17924-4093=13831 so 77% down or 69 Moz silver. The Comex side didn't bring the initial fast price drop (for a change in recent years) to $22-23, but they surely helped to bring the price further down. Over this period (12 april till end juni), 9,108,500 ASE's were bought by stackers. 18217 green monsterboxes. These ASE sales are just 13% of the Comex position difference (expressed in ounces). So the price upwards effect of the ASE sales was undone by 7,7 times (770%) higher Comex cancellations future sales that were incorporated in the price earlier, but never happened. Let's now look at Ishares Silver Trust stock difference between mid april and end juni: 2013/04/05 337,505,197.400 2013/06/27 318,481,348.700 Over this same period, 19 Moz was sold. That's 2 times (200%) the ASE sales. The figures make clear that your statement is simply false. And to add the most recent (period 09/07 till 16/07) part of the silver market story: At the Comex silver futures side, 4424 positions were added. That's the equivalent of 22 Moz silver added to the price in a single week. At the IShares Silver Trust side, 5,596 Moz silver was bought and thus added to the price. 2013/07/08 322,631,213.100 2013/07/12 327,455,323.100 2013/07/16 328,227,127.900 At the ASE side, 883,500 (1767 green monsterboxes) were sold to primary dealers. 2013/07/09 1,648,000 21,000 9,000 2013/07/13 1,656,500 24,500 11,500 2013/07/16 2,531,500 25,000 13,000 All next to eachother: Comex: +22 Moz IShares: +5,6 Moz ASE: +0,88 Moz We see numerous topics with US Mint ASE sales as focus, but apparently, I'm the only that looks at and also speaks about the net total position at the Comex/IShares side. Despite the latter buying (and later selling), in case this recent week, 30 times as much. Funny heh? I remember from the Kitco forum, 2011, that I was the sole one bringing up the Comex position as soon as I discovered it (the green or red+blue trendlines below the price trend on http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1 ). At that moment I even didn't know what COT report was / that it existed / where to find it. In the beginning I visually tried to estimate the position from the finviz.com chart. One has to ask himself this: how is it possible, that nobody talked about it? Apparently, finviz.com, a major and widely known site, found the total net position of every commodity futures markets important enough to put it below every price chart. That means that they think alot people want/need this data. Yet, none of the latter talks about it on community forums. How is that possible?
