I hope the 5 oz pandas don't have too high of a premium. Was hoping to score about 4 or 5 of these. If they do I guess I'll just get the 10 oz dragons.
The premiums will be high, maybe even higher than 2011 ones. I'm guessing around $100/oz at least. From a coin collector's perspective, I'd get the 5oz panda over the dragon but from an investor's perspective I'd go with the 10oz dragon (assuming no other coins to choose from).
Hate to break it to you guys but I see that the Shenzhen Guobao mint will not release Silver Pandas if they feel that the spot price is too low or has dipped too much. Like in 2008 when the metals market tanked with everything else but not as badly as the Dow though, the mint did not release silver pandas until September. They delayed the mintage until the prices recovered. I see a lot of days with small dips in the American markets followed by buying in the Asian markets due to the dollar "going up" with sheeple flocking to the US dollar from Europeon hands. This environment of overconfidence in the dollar does not promote confidence in the Guoboa mint to sell their silver at such low spot prices relative to what silver SHOULD be worth in their eyes. Gold sells for a more reasonable spot price at $1700 while silver is way undervalued and oversold. Americans still think it is overbought but I think they;re crazy and they're preventing the Guobao mint from having ANY incentive of releasing their Silver 2012 Panda into the U.S.
So what happens if silver never rises above current prices for the rest of 2012? Will that mean the 2012 silver pandas will never be released??
In hindsight hedging would have been wise, however it really is a moot point. The mint clearly decided they would buy a lot of silver, thus exposing them to the possible rewards as well as the risks. Realistically, they feel they can wait months and months until they can turn a profit on their silver purchase, without too much in the way of opportunity cost. Especially as it is considered the entire mintage will sell out. If you were planning on investing in 2012 1oz Pandas, it is easy to lock in the price now. Just buy as many ounces as you wanted with a depository service, like PMDS, and then sell it when the pandas are released. That way you get to lock in the coins at a price you are comfortable with now. The premiums are expected to be $6-8 per ounce, so keep a bit of cash aside to pay for that too. The rumor is the mint purchased their silver at ~$35USD, so we will need to wait until at least that level, they may wait until higher if their analysts feel there is a run on silver coming. As for the 5oz pandas, they are a proof collector coin, not a larger form of bullion. So you will struggle to find them anywhere for under $100 per ounce.
The thing is, they can still 'hedge' now. If they mint 10000oz of silver Pandas they can turn around and just buy that much silver back from London to restock. I do not buy their lack of hedging as an excuse. They are probably just delayed because of Chinese new year and the large variety of coins they have to pump out such as the dragons, the 2011 commemorative panda backlog among other things [1]. Mints don't usually speculate on metal prices, dealers do but that's a different story. There's no way the China mint will lose money, the sheer amount of profit from the dragons this year will more than cover any spot dips. [1] - http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-299182.html#p299182
I don't understand why the mint doesn't just increase their premium to account for the lower spot price. If the spot price of silver is X dollars below their supply costs, why not add another X dollars of premium to the price of the coin to counterbalance any losses.
The huge medal is minted by Great Wall Gold & Silver Refinery, not Shenzhen Guobao Mint (which I assume only minted these dragons: http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-279588.html#p279588)
I'm afraid that the ShenZhen mint delay is true that if they purchased silver @ $35 an ounce and it dropped they will delay releasing it. The price of silver reacted stupidly in the Fall and continues to act stupidly with panicky American't and Europeons flocking into the US Dollars causing the spot price to dip rapidly. Panicky sellers picked up on this and sold their SLV causing it to dip to $26 an ounce. The Shenzhen mint will incur a loss of $9 an ounce with the sale of each coin released and sold so they hold off. You can thank this sell-off in silver for holding back our coins. Some stackers hope for the dip but mints hate it and withhold their coins for sale as a result of dips. Same thing happened in 2008 and 2009. The mint bought silver at $13 an ounce in January of 2008 but it slowly dipped to $12 just before the drop and then to $9 in September. At the end of Spetember, it recovered to $11 an ounce and since it was late in the year they decided to release the 2008 silver pandas and the gold pandas as well. In 2009, it was $11 an ounce and they bought silver but then in March, it dipped again to $9 so they held off again until October. This was an opportunity to load up on bullion coins and bars but whatever you cannot get your hands on you were out of luck.
If these dips continue to take silver down below $35, the coin will be put off until November which is the latest (this happened in 2009). I am hoping for silver to climb to at least $36 so the mint will be willing to release them. After I get mine, I don't care how low you wish the price will dip.
@apples, The reason why China won't release the coins and charge higher premiums to make up the spot is because that would decrease demand in an already weak and ignorant market in America and Europe. These peopel are looking for the price to dip so the Shenzhen mint will in no way profit from a lower demand for these coins due to the fact they will deem the pandas overpriced. the mint will not only lose in profits but their revenue will plummet from decreased demand. A lower premium on a higher spot price for the mint is better as people won't expect to find silver at a lower price. The Perth mint had to charge a high premium for the dragon coins but demand remained high anyway in the Asian market but demand was lacking in the American markets.
Weak and ignorant market? Not so much. Pandas carry a larger premium than most to begin with, so if they bumped it up even higher to cover their expenses then it truly would be a significantly overpriced coin. Why pay a large premium when 8+ million will be circling the globe? The 2011 with a slightly smaller mintage is still easy enough to track down.
Hey guys, I finally found the 2012 pandas in pre-order. The catch is that they only sell the certified ones. It seems that silver prices are still too low to sell them loose so they had these certified with first strikes. I bought my MS-70 for $129 and the MS-69 sells for $89 which is way overpriced for a 69 so I opted for the 70. There are no loose ones. The gem proofs sells for $89 also certified. Here is the site: www.govmint.com Check it out.
I think is better wait. I buy my 2011 ms69 for less than 67 shipped and my ms70 for 110 shipped (one normal ngc and one early release)
They are being released early March. I have been advised, Distributors have had official reports from Chinese Mint,
Its better to lock in preorders or lock with futures in spot. End of march is a lot of time whith the silver volatility (now finished the consoladiting time and will break to the upside or retest the 26 mark) All depends of europe things (i think to march the sell off in sp500 will touch 1250/1300 and gold and silver first drop and later will raise a lot.
I rather lock in one panda than to wait for the rush and get none when it sells out. But when it does come out, I will buy more for cheaper on pre-order. At least now, I have one in case. IF there is a sell-off, the hoarding will be more intensive and supplies will run out faster. People will buy hundreds of them.
