Discussion in 'Silver' started by leon1998, Feb 14, 2015.
If gold drops to $1,085
I think gold has more room to fall so silver may hold up better if gold falls towards $1,000. Not based on anything in particular though.
There is an industrial bottom to silver which is why silver may hold up better.
I'm already getting dizzy... because of this unpredictable roller-coaster ride...
The lower we go the better. My third ounce will be far more affordable.
People who want the price to go up must be thinking of selling, who'd want to do a silly thing like that?
It worries me when it goes up because I don't think I have enough and I've been told that too much is barely enough by Sammy.
My ultimate dream is the AUD goes up and silver goes down.... that'd be sweet!
June 2006 spot was $10.09 USD
November 2008 spot was $9.50 USD
November 2014 spot was $15.39 USD
2015 ? Some say $9.80 USD
Silver doesn't exist independent of the rest of the world though. Now, if energy costs were dropping to 2008 levels, combined with efficiency gains made over the past several years along with technological and engineering advances... $5 silver a possibility??
2015 = $20-25 usd?
I would imagine that the solar and electonics industries have locked in prices for many years to come. In this age of just in time manufacturing, a derailment in the supply train would be very expensive.
That's assuming that the spot price is fixed based on the same factors that affect other industries....often it seems that the spot is based solely on the fickle whims of very large investors and the sentiment of secondary large investments.
It would probably be a lot easier to guess future spot prices if fundamentals were the only thing determining the London fix..
Strong handed stackers love when Silver is on sale! We believe in the powerful combination of unique industrial uses, history as hard money, future applications, health properties and the fact that a % of the yearly mined tonnage virtually disappears and is non recoverable.
If it dips below $15, that is two-fisted stacking time.
it doesnt really matter what silver does fellas, just react accordingly. my plan for instance.. if silver has a big spike (~$35 silver) i'll sell half my stack and turn to gold (depending on gold value). or sit on the fiat until the prices falls again, just to buy back in for the free silver... every large fluctuation comes with a correction shortly afterwards, every chart will back that up.. if it spikes low then you buy to lower your cost average. lower cost average means you need less of a spike to capitalize on the fluctuation.
TLDR: fluctuations both ways can be victories, have a plan.. and for god sakes dont worry so much.
and what if I had a 12" pianist?
and if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle.
What makes you think gold is gonna drop so much? i think gold bottomed out at $1200
The latest futures market total-position-based price target,
- assuming a 10000 contracts (5000 ounces each) bottom
- assuming a 70 Moz supply/demand change for every price dollar change
gives a next bottom of $13.7.
10/01/2015 53457 $16.80 > $13.7 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $17
03/02/2015 56199 $17.59 > $14.29
27/01/2015 61593 $17.87 > $14.18
20/01/2015 55641 $17.80 > $14.54
13/01/2015 46804 $17.00 > $14.37
06/01/2015 36951 $16.47 > $14.54
30/12/2014 38636 $16.25 > $14.20
23/12/2014 33732 $15.71 > $14.01
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $16
09/12/2014 35357 $17.12 > $15.31
02/12/2014 26576 $16.31 > $15.13
25/11/2014 22043 $16.56 > $15.69
18/11/2014 18367 $16.08 > $15.48
04/11/2014 12408 $15.77 (lowest position of the 3-4 months cyclus)
Silvers price has recently been driven back several times to 2008's average of $15.
Golds 2008 average price was $872.
Just a Reminder!
Those guys and girls hedge their purchases. When they plan for ex a 1 Moz silver purchase, they order it at a bullion bank, and take 200 long positions. The bullion bank takes 200 short positions. Both then have 'locked' in the agreed price (eventually including any targeted profit too). When speculators or whoever later on cause a bigger demand and or smaller supply, and the price rises, those industrial guys and girls receive compensating dollars on their futures market long position accounts, that will fill the financial gap for the higher price they end up paying.
And the bullion bank loses an equal amount dollars on its futures short accounts, but will get them as extra due to that higher price on the cash market.
These compensating dollars origin from those that bought silver during the price uptrend after the futures positions taking, because the taking of the futures position initiated arbitration trades that all together drove the spot price twice as much up than the speculators alone would have caused.
Just in time manufacturing matters when stockpiling is too expensive relative to the price of the stored product. Or when products can get outdated or detoriate.
Not exactly the case with gold silver etc.
That'd be $18 to $19 AUD so not as good as last year's low when denominated in Aussie dollars.
correct as the world does not revolve around the US of A, despite what americans think.
Separate names with a comma.