My balance sheet has done handsomely on some of my numismatics certainly, which has diminished my significant losses in bullion but as far as the general performance of precious metals, it's abundantly clear that over the time frame of CJ's "sideways" call it has been very flat and uninspiring. As far as what floats my boat, it feels decidedly non buoyant. I rather think it's wallowing and perhaps slowly sinking but no, it's not going sideways or anywhere else in any hurry. Bunk? I think not and I maintain this has been a good assessment of the last few years. CJ did define his "sideways" call on many occasions so this "sideways" mantra does not need further definition as far as I can see. Given the past two years of flat spot metal prices it's self evident and I maintain it's a very good description.
You might want to pull up a 3-year chart of Ag priced in AUD.. High of $35, low of $17.50 -- and that doesn't include any intra-day spikes at either end of the spectrum. 50% decline = "sideways"? :lol: Of course, that's only when it's priced in AUD.. Jester also needs to understand that the world doesn't revolve around Australia. Ag priced in rubles, for example, more than doubled at one point during this time-frame. Of course, that = "sideways," too, right? Bottom line: His has been a *horrible* assessment. Some might even call him a troll.
The term 'sideways' is used here as the marketwide-price of the metal silver. Numismatic and whatever other price effects are aside the metal price so this is like throwing two actually separate discussions together. Can't bunk one with another. In the first, the one of the marketwide metal price, there is alot reason for sideways. And some reason for further down. Year / Average price in USD 1990 $4 2000 $5 2010 $20 2013 $24 2014 $19 2015Q1 $16.7 It is sure that all the silver purchased for monetary reasons will be sold again in some future, and undo the price upwards effect it has had before. We have had a decade of stockpiling monetary silver. The average coin sales per year, over 2004-2012 more than doubled relative to 1990-2003. 2010-2013 was even a tripling. 2004-2012 coins&medals was 616 Moz. 2004-2013 coins&bars was 1224 Moz (so as much silver as bars as as coins sold). Exchange Traded Funds came into existence, piling up (combined with Exchange stocks) to 700 Moz. These together: 1224+700=1924 Moz stockpiled. Including exchange stocks, we sit around a 2000 Moz monetary stockpile addition over 2004-2013. Now tell me, how on Earth would the price, be driven up again? After reading 'bout dollar and later on euro etc, alot expected big general prices increasings / "inflation". But those stories weren't whole stories. Creation doesn't mean spending, and so far the central planners succeeded in blocking it, while doing their best to wipe out existing money (by luring people into that false thought, making them willing to pay temporary bloated prices of monetary alternatives). So, the silver price story seems to be a without-general-prices increasings one, and thus in terms of purchasing power, meaning that a higher silver price would mean real profit. Now, with all that extra stock sitting out there, its owners will likely reap away any price increase, for as long as that stock lasts. For how many years can 2000 Moz meet that eventual extra demand? According to data, the non-monetary kinds of silver demand changes undid eachother. Higher industrial was undone by lower photographic. The only thing that can be said is that photographic drop seems to have come closer to an end. Over 1990-2003 the annual demand hung around 200 Moz. Then, with digital photography booming, it started to drop. In 2013 it was 50 Moz, a quarter of back then. The other monetary kind, the government supply, also may have come to an end, over 1990-1992 they bought a combined 50 Moz, over 1993-2013 they sold 663.5 Moz, with nearly nothing (combined 30 Moz) over 2011-2013. Still, it is very possible that they now use middlemen to buy/sell silver. Big institutionals like hedge funds, banks. But certainly in a much lower degree than gold though. But regardless who (demand is demand), the key one remains: the vanishing of half of the extra stockpiling demand alone caused the halving of the price (2011 $35 > 2015Q1 $17), with the so far extra built-up stockpile still sitting out there unsold. Smells like sideways spirit, at "best". I ignore the different currencies element here, because other data indicates that the central planners of each currency work together - they intervene to prevent one becoming too strong/weak and over the multiyear/decades term that means a net zero. At the moment, the silver price is held up by dealers etc along a hedge on the futures market. As long as their shop doors aren't flooded by sellers, they can keep it there, and hold the price this higher, as long as they want, and reap more per ounce from their customers all that time. I decided to suspend my silver purchases and keep my weak euro's, while keeping an eye on market data (especially silver stocks), as to have a clue about the outlook.
The massive stockpile is an interesting factor. Is it being using as a control mechanism, like a tank of air or water, a reserve, that they use to pump up and then deflate the price at a whim for whatever agenda is being followed?
ive not been saying it for 3 years just the last one and a bit. it will still go nowhere for at least another 6 months It as an australian forum with mostly Australians the Americans invading just bring down the general IQ of the forum.
Yes, it all sounds good while cherry picking facts and flat out fabricating. Pulling up a three year chart has absolutely no bearing on CJ's call. Perhaps you could pull something more convincing out of your aaaah, never mind.
I'm not going to bother finding and quoting exactly what CJ has said on many occasions but it was something like silver would remain in the low to mid twenties and as he and I are in Australia and our interest lies here I say this was a good call. Frankly I don't give a tuppenny stuff about the silver price in Rubles right now and likely never will, I also have no interest in the U.S. price either. In Australia this has been a very good call and it's not too shabby throughout the rest of the world either. Certainly it's a lot better than the stream of BS I used to believe and which is still being spewed about. I was hanging shit on CJ along with every one else but the time has come when one has to admit the guy is right on the money. Credit where credit is due, CJ made a bloody good call here, no doubt about it.
Maybe some of us Americans intentionally feed some of you Aussies the impression that we have lower I.Q. - did I ever tell you how much some of us Americans despise envy and jealousy by some Aussies? .
Ehm, that "massive stockpile", is just all ours and others stacks together, used as inbetween step (storage of value role of money) to what we really wanted. What I said about the silver market, applies to all monetary markets, whatever is used as money, including fiat / electronic money. It all origins from one element: people don't throw valuable products / money away, and if there is nothing that causes devaluation (alike perishable products) or no big % of price storage costs, then the selling of the stockpile will undo the price trend it caused at creation time.
I wonder how liquid the silver purchased by the Oz from 09 to 12 is. A lot of the 5-20 ounce coin piles bought by individuals are unlikely to surface again. I doubt the owners even follow silvers price anymore and instinct leads me to believe these people will have since piled in and out of the madness that was bitcoin selling those coins as they went. I think Pirocco has a fair point if we were talking about larger 200-1000Oz purchases of niches like silver eagles, Perth mint silver etc. Any spot rise will result in the return to market of these items which will act to suppress the price rises for them and lower their premiums. It is not clear to me how relevant that is or will be to the actual commodity price though, the percentage that will get melted into 15KG market delivery bars is trivial.. I like both yanks and aussies normally. Don't get the hate. You'd all be eating sushi and bowing to the Emperor if it were not for the yanks, same for one third of China.
May be Jester has the same problem i USED to have with regards to Americans. I used to be " warmongers this, oil stealers that" and all the other terrible thing I consider the American government to have done. I am a lot clearer now a days that is is USA government policy that i detest and NOT the individual American citizens that make the country. This may be equally wrong in some peoples views, but with that said i hear a heck of a lot of negative/anti USA government talk from US citizens themselves.
With great power comes great responsibility. One of the many problems with democracy is that the people, theoretically, are the Government and are thus responsible for the actions of that government. I don't single out individual Americans for special contempt, however, as their country is the biggest democratic criminal on the block they have to be prepared to take the inevitable criticism and consequences for this status. Democracy is historically an abject failure and the inability of the American people to control the admitted misdeeds of their own government evidences this fact. They needed to follow the example of their revolutionary forefathers several years ago rather than leaving it to the present point of no return, to the despotic government that they now have and that the rest of us now have cause to also despise and fear. Despite the pride still openly displayed for their revolutionary past and the wisdom of their forefathers to prevent this from happening they have apparently failed to heed their own advice.
I get it that many people around the world hate many of the things that America has done. There's plenty of good reason for that. I consider my sentiments to generally be that of a dissident when it comes to U.S. foreign policy. I have never hidden that here or anywhere for that matter. There are plenty of American citizens who support U.S. tyranny and support the corrupt hegemonic foreign policy of the U.S. gov't. There are plenty who don't. Of those who don't, sadly it appears, only a small percentage routinely speak out forcefully against these policies. There are numerous reasons for this though I am not going to be an apologist for those who do oppose those policies and yet do not speak their mind in opposition to those policies. "We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented." Elie Wiesel But this dynamic could be said about many nations' citizenry whose gov't has been responsible for carrying out crimes against humanity. I am one who tries to distinguish the policies from the citizen....this seems to be the most honest and fair way to view it. .
