Hi all, I'm still a noob with the silver game. In the last few weeks I've been doing some small swaps with members in the forum. I started with 1x 10oz Southern Cross bars -> traded with 8x 1oz 2007 kooks [the idea was to get more coinage than bar, but then I started getting the urge to collect kooks ] then 4x 1oz 2007 kook -> traded with 3x 1oz 2010 panda [bought the 2011 panda and was very impressed with the level of detail, surprise surprise.. started wanting pandas too ] and 2x 1oz 2007 kook -> traded with 1x 2009 panda [can't resist, just have to get this] So ended up with 2x 2007 kook, 3x 2010 panda and 1x 2009 panda. Therefore went from 10oz bar to 6oz various coins with various premiums (40% drop in weight, but $ value wise I'm not sure). My question is how do you rate my trade decisions and whether you'd consider doing the same? My thinking was coins will do better than bars in the long run, and may not follow the spot price volatility. Any advice will be much appreciated. I think I need to work on my negotiation skill (which I have none). Have a good night!
Mmmmmmm? Will get back to you. Gotta do some math - which is difficult with a bottle of red under my belt.
I am sure someone else will answer this in greater detail but you are correct. if spot goes down and you suddenly need cash you should be able to at very least recoup your investment with the coins.
think you did a bad deal if you are just starting. If you allready have few hundred oz and you want particular coins then its ok to experiment, but at the begining its all bout increasing your stack not decreasing
Firstly lunarowl.. I think if you are happy with your trade then it was a good trade , its a case of what ever blows your hair back ... Just a suggestion .. but you might like to think about setting your target core postion with bars , then stacking a trading stack with coins and smaller bars . I have noticed that even with a falling spot , there is always activity with coins . But will there ever be a time when the market is only interested in an oz regardless of its form and the premiums on a coin dwindles ?
Thanks for the inputs.. I have a similar feeling, the problem was because I changed my game from investing to collecting (hence the will to pay the premium) - just can't help myself looking at those pretty coins. All swaps were done F2F, so no extra costs. It's a good learning anyway.. I thought I had a few too many bars compared to coins.. so I take it as lesson learned.
It's not the size of your stack but how you use it :| Coins which are considered legal tender here are great if you wanna play it absolutely safe. No matter how low the "market value" of silver ever goes, the denominated value serves as a fail-safe.
Well say an SC bar is going for $380~? You need those coins to average at least $63 each, which is a 100% premium above spot. I personally wouldn't have done it, but that's just me.
As long as you are happy is all that matters Maybe you need to assess what you are in it for - numismatic or bullion
I used to have the same thoughts and questions whether my decisions were correct. In the end if you are happy it's all that matters. I think I swapped a 10oz bar for Lunar coins and although I lost on the Coin Premiums, I'm happy because I like seeing the Lunar Collection develop. I'm saving for the Lunar Dragons for this Lunar Year 2012.
From a collectors point of view, you've collected what you wanted, but paid a fair premium for it. I guess one question to ask is what would 4 x Pandas and 2 x '07 kooks have cost in the first instance? Now you have them, if you hold them for the long term, great, but if you trade with them, I think you'd find it harder to recover your intital investment. Which brings me to - from an investor's point of view, the thing with the SC bar is that it carries a fairly heavy premium (for a bar) to start with. It's different from if you were trading a generic "ugly lump of silver" bar with minimal margin above spot. I'd dare to suggest that premiums are like the "fashion" of silver. There is a trap where someone can pay a premium on what they want to buy, and yet be talked out of the desirability of what they already have. So if you're investing, be happy - you've just experienced an important dynamic of physical trading! If you're collecting, be happy - you've got some very nice pieces of silver! The great thing about silver is that unlike food, booze, smokes, or whatever, it's not consumed and forever gone, no matter what you paid... Cheers!
I think if you are happy with the trades then you have done well. From a personal point of view i would prefer more oz of silver than specific coins. Example:- Silver goes to $1000 an ounce My 10 oz bar is worth $10k minimum Your 6oz coins are worth $6k minimum Will your 6 coins be able to pull a 4k premium over spot to match my bar @ spot??
having silver is about not worrying about their prices. if you have numis, when flood comes. its a BIG problem. all the premium can be gone. Its a risk factor. But can be enjoyable to keep oneself busy. but to a bar holder, he can buried them in a hole in the ground. after the water is gone, its recoverable without loss and not much of a worry. Best is to have both, enjoyable and nothing to worry about. Its like Perth Mint 1 oz old bar can be trade for 2 ozs of newer ones. I wish I can get hold of those little odd shape bars. (the marginal satisfaction will be lesser for the second bar though) Its like "If all your silver are dragons only" you will want to exchange them for other impression lunar or something else, most likely at market swap rate. fme just buy whatever the most cost effective and available to you, then later you you can swap them.
I think you lost out on that trade, as sc bars are fast become a premium bar. the good news is you made a mistake on a small trade, unlike me
When you are contemplating trades/swaps - always think of the fiat price that you could get for YOUR items and the fiat price you would need to pay for THEIR items. So if you could sell your 6 - 1 oz coins and with the money buy the 10 oz bar than it was a neutral swap. If you need to top it up with additional cash than that is the Equity you have given up in those trades. If you could sell your 6 coins and with the money buy another 10 oz bar and PLUS have some money left over than you have increased your equity.
It all depends... if prices get so high people may only be able to afford fractional or tiny size of silver. But really, can't go wrong with pandas! PANDAmonium!!!!!!
you may also be surprised by the experience I encounter in Panda. mine is kungfu panda. well I have a wheel of 15 coins in 2006. its a wheel of fortune, cost over 2k usd now. I got offer to buy from me for well below spot. its like low ball crazy. I love fractional silver, but their minting cost is too high. 1/10 from straight silver or the Indonesian/Malaysian Dirhams (not a good quality mint) just for circulation/exchange. one or two set is enough. 1/10 engelhard is very nice, but not as nice as the 1/10 koala in quality. (10 pcs of ownership will be enough) why do you hate carded koalas?
Agree with Pandamonium. Hence why I've laid off some of my own money recently to purchase some! But I don't think 10oz will ever be too hard to move. Given that 1KG bars were moving so bloody quickly in the sharp increase in silver price ($40+), and it would take a spot price of $120 for the 10oz to be the same price as the kilo bars when they were moving quickly.
