how far will it fall?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by hihosilver, May 5, 2011.

  1. Jislizard

    Jislizard Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I break even at AUD 26 so anything above that is a win for me, just picked up some predecimals for $37/troy ounce as I am figuring it will stop going down any minute..................................................... now!........................ now!.................................................. any minute...............................now!

    Well it has to stop soon anyway
     
  2. grinners

    grinners Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I think when this dead-cat bounce ends for the USD, we will see silver correct to the upside.
     
  3. Ag-ness

    Ag-ness Member

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    Thats good, on the pre-decimals deal. I haven't seen anyone selling at the dropped price at all yet. Any suggestions on where I should look? Feebay is still just as high as before the drop.:(
     
  4. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

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    With so many factors and many, that we are not even aware of. The thing I dislike is it is like a self fulfilling prophecy. All these people with their charts and numbers are all set to react the same way. This causes a domino effect and things happen really fast because millions of paper traders are seeing indicators telling them what to do. The poor man in the street doesn't normally stand a chance.

    I personally do not understand the charts nor do I really want to, though I should. Based on what I have seen, read and little knowledge I think it will break below $35US before it strongly rebounds.

    I have not purchase since mid Jan and so far this has been a blessing in disguise. So if it drops to these or lower I will pull the trigger on a few more K's as I am sure a lot of us will be. The question then will be demand but hopefully PM will be up and running heaps of 1kg's beauties for us all :D
     
  5. Dusty

    Dusty Active Member Silver Stacker

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    My and the correct one IS..... Drum roll........

    $35.10

    We already hit it now it's all going to smell great from here.

    Maybe.
     
  6. hihosilver

    hihosilver New Member

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    It's amazing how the human psyche works :p

    We were all chasing the wave upwards 2 weeks ago and now we are chasing the wave down hill in earnest :lol:

    I bought at $24 so, so far so good but if it drops below that I will feel pissed off

    Just shows how fickle we can be - roll on 35.40! yeeeehawwww :eek:
     
  7. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    I think it might go up from here.
    20 day moving average.
     
  8. lookingaround

    lookingaround New Member

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    Can someone explain to me the concept of 20 day moving average? Sorry I am a bit dumb :p
     
  9. NQDave

    NQDave Active Member Silver Stacker

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    i think QE3's not far off , near 500k unemployment jump in the USA and ECB left rates alone i think for now, should give silver a kick on.
     
  10. BigBen

    BigBen New Member

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    Without getting into more complex averages and how they are calculated such as exponential moving average and wide moving average, the simple moving average for say 20 days, is the average of the closing price for 20 days, represented as a moving line.
    When the price of silver is above this line, you could say it is short term bullish, with the 20 day SMA acting as support, where people buy because they think that line represents buying pressure, or a floor.
    Other common moving average numbers are the 30 day, 50 day, and 200 day
    With equities or index averages, if the 50 day ma crosses below the 200 day ma, this is called a death cross, very bearish indicator.
    They are ONE of many great technical analysis tools.

    But as always, must not be relied upon for your investment decision :)
     
  11. HeavyMetal

    HeavyMetal New Member

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    For what it's worth, I'm expecting a bounce before it hits US$32.

    But if we get GFC v2.0 after QE2 ends in July, then it could fall back down to US$22. That should be the worse case scenario, or best case if you have the cash available to buy more.

    But I still think that we will see in excess of US$100 before the bull market is over :D
     
  12. LvM

    LvM Member

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    Looks like another big fall coming early next week:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...omex-boosts-speculator-trading-costs-84-.html

    "The biggest slump for silver since 1983 may not be over as the Comex exchange in New York makes it 84 percent more expensive for speculators to trade the metal, triggering an exit by investors.

    The minimum amount of cash that must be deposited when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $21,600 per contract after May 9, CME Group Ltd., Comex's owner, said yesterday. That's up from $11,745 two weeks ago. Open interest in futures has tumbled about 15 percent since the exchange began raising margin requirements on April 25."

    Looks to me that Comex are going to do whatever it takes to get the price of Silver down to around $30.
     
  13. goldpelican

    goldpelican Administrator Staff Member

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    I imported ASEs from Gainesville in Jan - the premium was $3 USD shipped. Today it's about $5.25. That's over a grand added to the cost of a monster box regardless of spot.
     
  14. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I bought some philharmonic today from Gainesville 2,50 over spot
     
  15. goldpelican

    goldpelican Administrator Staff Member

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    How? They're $3.35 over spot right now if you buy a monster box.
     
  16. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  17. Izaana

    Izaana New Member

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    If I get my guess right what do I win as a newbie? A nice shiny round from one of you older rich guys that have a huge pile?...LoL

    I am going to guess $27.54
     
  18. LovingtheSilver

    LovingtheSilver Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Another manipulation.. they would've known PM will go down after Bernanke announcing a cease to QEII, so this is their way of guarantee price will go down further, giving the POS a kick in the guts when it is already down. This kind of 'gameplaying' is out of our control. I wouldn't be surprised at all silver will be back around $24 very soon especially end of June. After a while QE3 may be introduced.... the string pullers are basically creating 'boom and bust' scenarios to benefit themselves. They know how the market is going to react to certain events that they create, they know exactly when to get in and out. It's all totally rigged. They are basically shaking the tree and stealing from people who have money invested, I don't have that much invested in silver and most of my buying was done below $25 so im not phased byrecent drop. That's the way silver is, very volatile, when it goes up, she goes UP.. and when she down, she goes DOWN.
     
  19. Nub Cannon

    Nub Cannon New Member

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    I Have a feeling it will go to $28ish but I want to buy back around $30 though
     
  20. LovingtheSilver

    LovingtheSilver Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Agreed.... more drops to come and a better time to buy. Everyone will be sh*tting themselves and bailing. Works very similar to shares, if the fundamentals in silver/particular share is good.. buy after the bad news when everyone does not want, not on the good news when everyone is buying and inflating the price. I don't buy shares though, just spectate ;)
    Although this may kick us all where it hurts initially, it may also be a good thing later on. Hopefully make the silver market a little more stable so that upswings and downswings aren't so dramatic.
     

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