Air will leak out of the Everything Bubble until the Fed pulls the trigger and implements better Yield Curve Control by buying the long end. Tesla, Bitcoin, Gold, Tech dropping....they are all just symptoms of the Everything Bubble deflating a bit. The bankers are right where they want to be.....in full control of market sentiment. If (when) they say "jump" the market will respond "how high" I doubt they are going to pull the rug from the market, but you never know. Maybe one day they will.....and then when there's blood in the streets they will buy it up. It's an old trick, but a good one. As long as it's not their blood in the street....
I read an interesting comment the other about the "everything bubble", the market commentator looked at it from a completely different angle, he argued that it's not an everything bubble, it's a currency crash.
Stock market sell off due to spike in bond yields which I guess was caused by recent inflation concerns. However the fed talking down inflation. Does the market believe this though? Also I think at the end of March the US bank relaxed liquidity requirements end, which were started to help out during covid period. Banks selling off to ensure enough cash in hand to cover new requirements. Good videos on YouTube from ‘Meet Kevin’ channel going through it play by play each day
Totally agree. Calling it a currency crash could be considered hyperbolic though It's all relative and depends on the perspective. If you want to consider it a currency crash then it's not just the USD. It's ALL the fiat currencies crashing together.....
I've heard that myself and I'm starting to wonder... It's so hard to know exactly. I first started seeing claims of hyperinflation after the GFC and after 12 years now, it's hard to take claims of it seriously. And yet, there's another part of me thinking that debt levels are totally ridiculous now, they obviously can't be repaid and the interest rates have to keep going down in order for the repayments to be manageable, but they are already effectively 0 in most places. The petrodollar system has been slowly breaking down for years now and the Fed is now buying most of the treasury debt. The Chinese certainly aren't playing ball any more, and the petrodollar was set up in a very different world at the height of the cold war in the 70's that hasn't existed for a long time now. The other aspect is to just look at the Australian market. For the past decade, every time the housing market has got into trouble the RBA has slashed interest rates. Now prices, and associated debt levels are shooting up higher than ever again. What happens the next time the market starts cooling off? Negative rates I guess, but do they even really work? No country that owns it's own currency ever defaults. They push things as close to the edge as they think they can get, but do they really know where the edge is? I mean, the only choice in this country is to try and inflate away the debt at this point. Yet, they are having very little success in doing this. And with productivity and automation levels continuing to go upwards, less and less man hours will be needed to provide society with what it wants and needs. Part-time and casual work likely to become more prevalent than they are now. That's not going to do anything for wages. I'd be very surprised if, in the year 2030, we are talking about the next leg up in the housing market and that housing always goes up still, because how many times between 2010 and 2020 did interest rates need to be slashed? Quite a few times. I can't see any reason why this decade won't have the same type of moments. For my mind, we are reaching some kind of inflection point. But where exactly it is and what it looks like, I wish I knew. More and more, I am having the feeling that the fiat system might be breaking down.
China doesnt need to do anything but sit back and watch the west destroy itself and they grow stronger year by year. They are setting up to be the superpower with the mighty yuan it seems. Americas days are limited.
The EU is self-destructing to the same recipe. Russia, China have only to gain from this. So do major regional powers like Turkey, Iran. Probably India will also gain more strength to some extent. I sometimes wonder whether the EU/UK/USA "social suicide" is conscious or whether they are really that dumb that they don't know what they're doing. Probably it's the latter, because the elites in general have no idea how a society really works. Communists did the same thing: the believed in theories, abstractions, ideological schemes, which they tried to force upon society. The west is basically composed of former colonial powers and this is their 2nd decline. The US being the remaining "colonial power", currently in decline. The first time their decline occurred was in the first half of the 20th century, when they lost most of their colonies. What we are witnessing now is the 2nd wave of devastating decline. And this decline is the collapse of their core (from inside), basically this is when they lose their power/influence, while new powers are going to emerge (India, China, Turkey, Pakistan, South Korea, Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria etc.) in the multipolar world. This is nothing else than the decline of the colonial powers themselves. In the 1st wave they lost their colonies, not in the 2nd wave they're losing their pants. France, the UK, the USA,... but I'd add the Netherlands (or is it "Holland"? ), Belgium (the EU's bureaucratic core) etc. Spain and Italy have lost most of their colonies a long time ago, but they have devastating social problems (among the highest levels of youth unemployment, decline of tourism has decomposed their economy, massive illegal migration). The madness in the 2nd decline of the colonial powers is that now they're at each other's neck: - Germany no longer seems to have as 'good relations' with France as it used to - the UK has turned its back on the EU (and the EU on the UK) - the EU's colonial members are attacking the new members (see the ideological warfare between the colonial powers and the Central European states like Poland, Hungary, Slovenia) - the US vs Russia 2nd cold war has emerged; who gains from this: China, Iran, North Korea, Turkey...; who loses: the entire Europe, Israel, Japan, South Korea It's a mad world...
Japan is getting stronger by the year. They already have the strongest navy (ex-nuclear weapons) in the world. The Japanese navy today is much stronger than they were during 1900 when they defeated the combined Russian Baltic and Pacific fleet and 1942 when they attacked Pearl Harbour. Notice north korea only dared to attack south korea and even US navy ship, but never dared to touch Japan.
Japan is a long way behind the US Navy, the British Navy, the French, Russian (mainly due to nuclear submarines and Kalibr missile-carrying small navy ships) and probably several others - I believe Italy is ahead of Japan as well. Why would you think Japan's navy is so strong? They lack real aircraft carriers (have rather a few helicopter carriers) and their fighter jets are also rather old (F-15, F-2 and especially the F-4 are old models).
Warfare isn't won on military equipment alone. The saudis can't win the houthis. The soviets were defeated by the talibans. The Japanese military is definitely more well equipped than houthis and talibans. Japan had inferior equipment when they defeated the Russian navy. During WWII, their naval technology was very backward as compared to the Americans. It is also subjective whether Japanese hardware is inferior to American and US since a lot of military capabilities maybe secret and Japan is very secretive with their real military prowress. The Japanese industrial companies likes of Mitsubishi heavy industries are probably hiding their military tech capabilities owing to the political sensitivity, Mitsubishi being the maker of the zero fighter planes. https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/14/japan-launches-first-of-its-new-class-of-submarines/ Interesting fact on the manufacturer of Subaru cars - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakajima_Aircraft_Company
Earlier you said "They already have the strongest navy (ex-nuclear weapons) in the world." Clearly, that's not the case.
Japan would have the capability to build high tech warmachines if they needed to. Japanese are smart and their engineering is amazing. they also have good allies these days. Australia should have bought their submarines instead of wasting money on that dud French piece of shit. their Soryu submarines are very good, none nuclear quiet and fast. you would certainly want the Japanese on your side If a world war broke out, thankfully they are. they are far from a military super power these days, but they could easily be at short notice if they needed tobe. I think China are very wary of Japan and know they could arm them selves quickly, hence why they would try and hit Japan quickly if a world war broke out in an attempt to stop them getting established. also why China gets very agitated and acts hostile any time Japan launches new ships. Japan would play an very important role if we went to war with China. India will also
Debt is largely irrelevant when you can print your own money to pay it back. It really only matters from a perception point of view, on the ground it makes no difference. The fiat system will only break down when States fail. And for the majority of non-European advanced economies that's highly unlikely. As for the Europeans, if the EU breaks up the first thing that the newly independent nation States will do is issue their own fiat. And they'll be gobbled up greedily. In the meantime Monetarism is driving asset inflation and wage stagnation and you're right to question "Where does it end?". Monetarism is a spent force just limping along. It ends when governments loosen their fiscal policy and learn to rely less on central bank policies of going guarantor for their banking buddies in an attempt to restore GDP growth by fuelling private debt. In our double-entry bookkeeping system (which is what our fiat system is) if the private sector's debt (currency liabilities) increases then there's a corresponding increase in the public sector's assets (currency on issue) aka budget surplus. So MM theorists argue that during balance sheet recessions the government should be decreasing the private sector's liabilities by decreasing the public sector's asset side of the column entry ie by spending more directly into the private economy instead of building bank reserves and curbing public spending - which only hurts the private sector in the end.
Our interpretation of strongest is different. We can go by numbers - which Iran will win because it's speed boat navy has the most number of vessels. Or the biggest, which the US navy will win by having the most number of large surface targets. But with autonomous bomber drones and hypersonic missiles which will be common weapons in the future, modern naval warfare isn't about numbers or about having the biggest. It's about stealth (hidden deep under the sea), efficiency and cost effectiveness. Submarines require very little crew, 80-90 sailors, can operate on it's own. An aircraft carrier with its complement support ships and vessel will require more than 10,000 sailors. You can operate 60-80 subs in exchange of a single carrier. The small size of Japan is also advantageous to Japan since there's a smaller airspace and fewer borders to defend and less is expected of a small country. Japan being a small country with unassuming navy don't need to make major wins in battles to win an entire war. The winning bar is lower. You can even lose battles and yet still win an entire war, just like the Talibans had been winning all these years. Why did Russia have to surrender to Japan in 1900? They had to surrender not because Japan can threaten motherland Russia but because the longer Russia engages with Japan, the more dangerous to Moscow because there are bigger and more dangerous enemies that may take advantage of the situation.
I still don't understand your interpretation Look, we can talk about firepower, overall strength, it's obvious that it's not just a numbers game. Iran has a bunch of small poor quality vessels and even Bolivia maintains a landlocked "navy". Japan is introducing 2 light carriers (which will have 14-18 F-35's on them, each) + they will have 2 more new helicopter carriers. They have 22 submarines, 26 destroyers, but apparently no frigates. Some sources state that Japan has 120+ ships in total, but others put that number above 150. Nevertheless, Japan can be regionally very powerful. Then you can compare it to China, South Korea, possibly go further down comparing it to Australia, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, India. But Japan's navy wouldn't be in the top 10 globally. Nor in terms of the firepower, nor in the quantity of ships. Many of their ships and submarines have limited range due to diesel, diesel/electric propulsion. While the UK, France, USA have nuclear-powered boats. That's another factor to take into account. Japan could counter-balance the US- and Chinese navies in Asia.
Crazy weather, UV is now at mid-year levels so early in the year. I thought we are having solar minimum? Luckily, it is still raining. Heat and rain always come together.
