2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    It doesn’t work that way.
     
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Re: tin foil take, the IMF is irrelevant to Western advanced countries.
     
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Uneducated Economist:
    Gold vs. Treasuries, Selling To The Greater Fool
     
  4. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Interesting move from the Kiwis.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...orces-rbnz-to-include-housing-in-rate-setting

    New Zealand’s government will require the central bank to take account of rampant house prices when it sets interest rates, a change that may restrict its ability to run loose monetary policy.

    The Reserve Bank’s remit will be amended so that the bank considers “the impact on housing when making monetary and financial policy decisions,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in a statement Thursday in Wellington. The New Zealand dollar jumped to its highest since 2017 as investors ramped up bets on higher interest rates.

    The government is under political pressure to cool an overheating housing market, which has been fueled by record-low borrowing costs after the RBNZ responded to the coronavirus pandemic by slashing its cash rate and embarking on quantitative easing. Governor Adrian Orr pushed back against Robertson’s proposal when it was first made last year, saying that forcing the bank to consider house prices when setting rates could lead to below-target employment and inflation.

    “The more objectives you’ve got, the more complicated it can be to meet all those objectives,” said Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank in Auckland. “Inflation and employment is what they will focus on, but they have to think harder about how their decisions impact on the housing market.”
    --
    Soaring house prices have raised concerns that first-time buyers are being locked out of the market. Much of the surge has been attributed to investors taking advantage of low interest rates.

    The RBNZ, which predicts prices will rise 22% in the year through June, is reinstating mortgage lending restrictions and will tighten them further for investors from May 1.
     
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  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    NZ government should open its cheque book instead of pressuring its central bank
     
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  6. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good news.
    ---

    Britain. France. Germany. Holland. Canada. All are sending warships to the South China Sea in growing “pushback” against Beijing.

    Britain’s defence ministry says a multinational task force centred on its new 65,000-ton aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth will arrive in South East Asia between April and June.

    France sent one of its nuclear-powered attack submarines which passed through the South China Sea earlier this month. Now it’s sending the 21,000-ton amphibious assault ship FS Tonnere and a frigate through the disputed waters in coming weeks.

    And last month, the Royal Canadian Navy frigate Winnipeg passed through the contested Taiwan Strait to emphasise a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/...g/news-story/41cc91af2af8b5ec3126712d09fef454
     
  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    we wait and see how many more ships they all can send after the accidents
    more can be decommision at the same time
    the intention is to block the many free flowing ships
    frigates vs oil tankers
     
  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The South China Sea has replaced the Persian Gulf. Previously it’s to protect the oil, now to protect the chips. LoL
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2021
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  9. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  10. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    OMG this is gold from Bernardi. :D

     
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  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    And this guy still has his job? :D

    "World" organizations: they are political-ideological enterprises and they are not saving the people dying of hunger, nor the rainforests, nor the disappearing animal species...
     
  12. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Meanwhile:
    - 3rd wave of Corona announced (hitting many countries across Europe): I wonder how come there's a 3rd wave coming, since people are more precautious than ever (more wear masks, social distancing, lockdowns)
    and vaccinations are undergoing?
    - powerful economic recoveries are expects as the vaccinations extends and some European countries are expecting to "loosen up" towards summer and autumn: which makes me conclude, that people will shop more,
    travel more and as it usually happens, this will pump up the prices


    I expect an explosion of demand for HORECA services, while people will also blow many of their savings on "the trip of a lifetime".
    The explosion of demand will elevate the prices.

    But many cafes, hotels, airlines, holiday resorts, tour operators went bankrupt or have cut capacity (see Lufthansa, Emirates, Qatar Airways...), which means that the offer will be narrower.

    Explosion of demand... narrow offer... what does that mean? HIGHER PRICES.

    If the "right" branches of the economies start charging higher prices, then that might propagate into EVERYTHING.

    This usually starts with: higher prices in transportation/logistics costs, higher demand for fuels (thus also fueling higher fuel costs).
    Then in propagates into food prices, utility bills... and overall higher living costs.

    The "recovery" might as well be an abrupt spike of demand, which is not good. Although everyone is awaiting it with open arms.

    I am actually the first person I know who's worried about this powerful recovery.
     
  13. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Gold has just dropped sub-1,700 $ (1,699 $ at the time of this post).

    'ts prolly goin' down to 1,500 $. If it sinks below 1,500 $, we are headed for 1,300 $.

    And then we can do it all over again: wait and hope for the next 2,000 $ per ounce :D
     
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  14. GOLD1

    GOLD1 Well-Known Member

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  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    When I started buying gold in 2018, I saw a couple of different people on different forums talking about $800 gold. So $1300 is an improvement.

    At the end of the day is not about the price of gold, but whether one can "afford" to buy gold. :D


     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2021
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  16. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  17. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    True. Because when you need it, you might no be able to grab a hold.
    We experienced roughly a year ago: there was no bullion available at the dealers (shortage) + the price shot up like a space shuttle.
     
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  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Big tech has already been falling since Jan, the MSM doesn't talk much about it, proves that the crypto diversion is working, but if you look at the charts, it's very obvious. Tesla fallen from almost $900 or just over $600 today, that's over 30% in just over a month. It's like gold dropping from $1950 to $1300 in 40 days. The trouble with inflated tech stocks that don't pay a dividend, if there's no demand it can continue dropping all the way down because there's no reason to own a non yielding stock that can't rise.

    Unlike gold, when it drops, physical buyers come in and after sometime, the paper manipulation can't work. My wife saw queues at gold shops last weekend and said I should buy her a gold chain. Asian women want gold (jewellery). Doesn't matter if the price falls as the man is paying for it. :D

    The crypto diversion can only work in the short term, when more issues pops out with the yield issue, slowly, people will forget about cryptos and start to look at big tech, that's when there's a risk of a big collapse. This is what I worry as I'm afraid it may drag down my commodity stocks. But perhaps the diversion only needs to work in the short term? The billionaires maybe quietly dumping their stocks for all we know.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-megabull-ron-baron-says-142046385.html
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2021
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  19. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    So, you think cryptos are a "diversion"? Elaborate, please...
     
  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    how are those gold exposures get hedged?
    when 5 group of people have the same exposure to a 400 oz gold, they should band together to hedge their exposure, rather than each headge the 400oz gold, 5x that enhance the price suppression
    they should band together to hedge that single 400oz bar
     

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