Yes! Haha shorts may be setting up a trade now.
Monitoring the Crypto Bubble
- Thread starter Bullion Baron
- Start date
Looking at BTC from an alternative TA angle I use sometimes with penny stocks buying now is still inherently risky if you're looking for confirmation of the next phase up. From an ultra-conservative crypto viewpoint* a move and hold above the AUD40000 would be a solid indicator based upon the ATH of 2021 and the recent lows.
A less conservative price based upon the highs of 2022 would be a move and hold above the AUD33000 mark. Looking at the USD price chart that's above $23500 or so.
Using those figures an option could be to buy some now, buy more when it holds above AUD33000 and then pile the remaining funds into the AUD40000 - 50000 range.
*the uber-conservative non-crypto viewpoint is to not just enter the market at all.
A less conservative price based upon the highs of 2022 would be a move and hold above the AUD33000 mark. Looking at the USD price chart that's above $23500 or so.
Using those figures an option could be to buy some now, buy more when it holds above AUD33000 and then pile the remaining funds into the AUD40000 - 50000 range.
*the uber-conservative non-crypto viewpoint is to not just enter the market at all.
Ive heard some are averaging in now to have a position but just a small amount and will put more in as it drops, if it drops.
Some others are waiting for confirmation of a turnaround on the charts to get in and will add to it as it retests support levels on the way back up.
I am personally waiting for now and saving my cash for the time being but im in the camp that Btc will be around for awhile and it has enough support.
Some others are waiting for confirmation of a turnaround on the charts to get in and will add to it as it retests support levels on the way back up.
I am personally waiting for now and saving my cash for the time being but im in the camp that Btc will be around for awhile and it has enough support.
Glassnode alerts.
200 DMA:
Alert Idea: Price breaking below $19.5k would reflect a fall back below the 200D-SMA, which may indicate market weakness worth paying attention to.
Long-term holders realised price:
Alert Idea: Price breaking above $22.4k* would reflect a rally above the LTH-Realized Price, putting the average holder in all cohorts back into profit.
*which is around the price I posted earlier about (probably just coincidence)
Mining cost:
Alert Idea: Price breaking below the $17.0k would reflect a fall back below both cost of production models, which may put the mining sector back into acute financial stress.
So short term the bulls will be looking at above the $22.4k, the bears will be looking at $19.5k firstly then $17k. Data indicates that funds have been flowing into long-BTC but out of short-BTC.
200 DMA:
Alert Idea: Price breaking below $19.5k would reflect a fall back below the 200D-SMA, which may indicate market weakness worth paying attention to.
Long-term holders realised price:
Alert Idea: Price breaking above $22.4k* would reflect a rally above the LTH-Realized Price, putting the average holder in all cohorts back into profit.
*which is around the price I posted earlier about (probably just coincidence)
Mining cost:
Alert Idea: Price breaking below the $17.0k would reflect a fall back below both cost of production models, which may put the mining sector back into acute financial stress.
So short term the bulls will be looking at above the $22.4k, the bears will be looking at $19.5k firstly then $17k. Data indicates that funds have been flowing into long-BTC but out of short-BTC.
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Profit1
Active Member
I am mostly in BTC, with some ETH added in.
Imo, with such a decent run-up, it would be healthy for BTC to retest support around the $19.6k level and consolidate for a month or so before the next leg up.
Even if it goes back below the 200 Day MA, it won't take much to get it back above, especially if we consolidate and go sideways for a while.
Imo, with such a decent run-up, it would be healthy for BTC to retest support around the $19.6k level and consolidate for a month or so before the next leg up.
Even if it goes back below the 200 Day MA, it won't take much to get it back above, especially if we consolidate and go sideways for a while.
Well that didnt last long.
What didn't last long?
Too early to make any calls. It just failed to break resistance when it tested the 2 month high. We have to keep an eye on how it goes retesting $21k.
precious roar
Active Member
Problem is that the crypto space is full of gamblers.
Its better to not care. You only want emotion involved as little as possible and not to fall in love with anything.
Btc sniffing out a pivot! Jerome getting shaky knees?
Changing the CPI formula is the way out now.
Changing the CPI formula is the way out now.
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It doesn't matter what anyone believes about the CPI. Discussions around the formula are just a side issue and largely irrelevant. The only thing that matters is what Powell is looking at and he's watching core CPI.
Before The Fed pivots it will lower rate rises, hold rates at whatever terminal rate it is comfortable with, then begin lowering them. The pivot is a long time away.
Before The Fed pivots it will lower rate rises, hold rates at whatever terminal rate it is comfortable with, then begin lowering them. The pivot is a long time away.
Well that didn't last long.
Bang! Right through the $22.4 (AUD32.5k) mark, just short of the buy zone (AUD33k - 50k) I was looking at earlier. Now will it hold?
Bang! Right through the $22.4 (AUD32.5k) mark, just short of the buy zone (AUD33k - 50k) I was looking at earlier. Now will it hold?
precious roar
Active Member
Normally, I would say the rise was way too quick to be sustained but who knows with this crazy market. I do think this year will be one of extreme volatility in stocks and crypto.
Profit1
Active Member
Shiney, you are right. BTC didn't stay down for long. I thought it would retest deeper. However, it is what it is. I am expecting BTC to hold and break the next line of support at $25.5k over the next couple of days, followed by a retest. If it does break through the $25.5k, the next major resistance level is around the $28,600k. That is a major resistance level. I was a bit surprised how the news of Genesis/Gemini saga did not impact the market very much. Was probably already factored in. 2023 has kicked of to a great start. However, the volatility with headwinds will be tricky to navigate throughout the year. At least it is not boring. 
Going back to my previous price points identified and stealing a couple of ideas from Darius Dale here: https://www.silverstackers.com/forums/index.php?threads/2020-collapse.93996/page-261#post-1256541 this is going to be my trade:
A recession is coming and I can't see it being positive for BTC, likely in the second half of the year. In the meantime risk-on assets will get renewed market interest but JPow is going to remind the markets that The Fed is on course in it's desire to crush inflation, so we're going to get some hawkish commentary from him following the next few FOMC meetings.
This bullish market sentiment therefore will be short-lived. It could be as early as mid-February when it peaks, it could be March or we may have to wait until June when it suddenly dawns on the market that the US economy has been crushed and that The Fed are not going to pivot because a crushed economy is exactly what The Fed wants to see.
So using the 2022 highs and lows again I posted earlier, I'll wait for confirmation that BTC is in my buy zone ie USD23.5k - 31.5k before entering a trading position. My sell position will either be in the USD31.5k - 39.5k range or when the S+P gets to 4100.
This is a trading strategy. I also hold BTC long term.
A recession is coming and I can't see it being positive for BTC, likely in the second half of the year. In the meantime risk-on assets will get renewed market interest but JPow is going to remind the markets that The Fed is on course in it's desire to crush inflation, so we're going to get some hawkish commentary from him following the next few FOMC meetings.
This bullish market sentiment therefore will be short-lived. It could be as early as mid-February when it peaks, it could be March or we may have to wait until June when it suddenly dawns on the market that the US economy has been crushed and that The Fed are not going to pivot because a crushed economy is exactly what The Fed wants to see.
So using the 2022 highs and lows again I posted earlier, I'll wait for confirmation that BTC is in my buy zone ie USD23.5k - 31.5k before entering a trading position. My sell position will either be in the USD31.5k - 39.5k range or when the S+P gets to 4100.
This is a trading strategy. I also hold BTC long term.
It was meant to get to 25k before the FTX fiasco, so no reason it doesn't go there again. But the higher numbers would be impressive. Awesome trade if it hit's 30's USD. I'll be sitting this out (again).
Sitting and watching the corn pop.