Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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serial said:
And as history has proven time and time again those who are wealthy with gold maintain that wealth throughout any conflict or major incident eg stock market crash, war etc
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So you want to talk about gold's performance during market crashes only? This discussion should really be in the other thread, but anyway.

It's generally accepted that there is a negative relationship between the USD and the POG. So if the USD drops then it's assumed the POG will rise. Also, if the stock market falls, generally the POG rises. During the last recession from about 2006 - 2010 gold performed very well. So if you'd picked up gold at pre-2006 prices then you would've made a nice little earner while those later to the game buying in at higher prices probably retained their purchasing power at worse. Post 2010 of course if they didn't adjust their portfolio to reflect gold's falling value the gains or at least the maintenance of their purchasing power could have been wiped out or reduced depending of course upon the DCA of the gold purchased.

During the recession gold performed well as both a wealth protector and producer, after the recession it performed poorly on both accounts. And that rings true for most recessions/stock market crashes when compared to the share market:

Screen Shot 2022-06-15 at 11.27.50 am.png

In the March 2020 crash every asset class fell in value, though it's not classed as a recession.

S+P500:

Screen Shot 2022-06-15 at 11.31.28 am.png

Gold:

Screen Shot 2022-06-15 at 11.33.03 am.png

The S+P roared back into life and gold kept climbing on its merry way for a while as it had been doing since about 2015.

Lastly what's the USD Index doing? We'll need to keep an eye on this one in the future.

Screen Shot 2022-06-15 at 11.37.06 am.png
 
You guys have got to snap out of your compulsive obsession of looking back at past averages to find buying support.

As I have said before, we are in uncharted territory when it comes to cryptos, as rising interest rates and drying up of liquidity was
not a factor in previous crashes, so drawing comparisons now with then is a fools' errand

I think $12k is possible or even $5k if things deteriorate economically and stock markets crash like in previous big crashes.

Find another hobby or interest to keep you occupied till the dust settles and the demolition is complete, instead of this neverending
obsession to back up the truck and want to get rich quickly again.
 
The Coin That Could Wreck Crypto
As cryptocurrencies have plunged, attention has focused on a potential point of vulnerability: the market’s reliance on a so-called stablecoin called Tether.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/17/technology/tether-stablecoin-cryptocurrency.html

Tether remains by far the most popular stablecoin. But over the last month, the number of Tethers in circulation has declined more than 7 percent. The circulation of USDC, a stablecoin that is supposedly fully backed by cash and U.S. Treasurys,has increased roughly 4 percent.

“I can’t say I’m as confident about Tether as I am with USDC,” said Sam Kazemian, who runs Frax, another stablecoin project.

Concerns about Tether have spread to Washington. When Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified before Congress last month, she noted Tether’s wavering from its $1 peg and called for greater regulation of stablecoins.
The growth of stablecoins presents “the same kind of risks that we have known for centuries in connection with bank runs,” she said.

Mr. Ardoino said Tether was eager to work with regulators to devise a global framework governing disclosures that stablecoin issuers must make about their reserves. But Tether has resisted more aggressive proposals, which would subject it to regulatory requirements like those of traditional banks.

“Everyone’s freaking out — like, ‘I lost my life savings,’” said Mr. Collins, who founded Tether with Mr. Pierce and now runs a crypto venture called BLOCKv. “That’s a tragedy, but it’s just as much of a tragedy when someone says, ‘I went to a casino and lost my life savings.’ But that doesn’t mean let’s regulate casinos out of existence.”

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Well - at least they're admitting Tether's akin to an unregulated casino. :p
 
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