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2020 Collapse
- Thread starter TreasureHunter
- Start date
Time to make money.
War is over.
Ukraine, however distasteful will be made to cede territories to Putin by their "friends" and Putin will claim that he has achieved his total objective, even though it is a lie.
Uncertainties remain in the market.... Fighting can flare up again but it will be just be that a flare up.
Good luck members
War is over.
Ukraine, however distasteful will be made to cede territories to Putin by their "friends" and Putin will claim that he has achieved his total objective, even though it is a lie.
Uncertainties remain in the market.... Fighting can flare up again but it will be just be that a flare up.
Good luck members
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Now the Fed is admitting it. Inflation is not "temporary". And, IT MIGHT LAST ANOTHER 12 months.
I think we'll see 10+% inflation this year at least in the USA and average in the EU. It might shoot above 25% later this year, if the Ruskies and Ukraz are continuing the war.
(STOP THE WAR!)
CBS: "Americans will likely see "uncomfortably high" inflation this year, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says"
SOURCE:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/janet-yellen-uncomfortably-high-inflation/
NBC: "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Americans will likely see another year of ‘very uncomfortably high’ inflation"
SOURCE:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/tre...-says-inflation-could-be-high-for-a-year.html
The worst effects will be seen in the second half of this year. By then, the Russian sanctions will have hurt the western (especially European) economies hard.
"Trade wars, currency wars, world war?". Let's hope the 3rd one is not going to happen.
But we are already seeing the first two.
Buy food, medical supplies, etc. It's more previous than money or gold.
Buy the electronics you need, because later you will not be able to afford them.
I think we'll see 10+% inflation this year at least in the USA and average in the EU. It might shoot above 25% later this year, if the Ruskies and Ukraz are continuing the war.
(STOP THE WAR!)
CBS: "Americans will likely see "uncomfortably high" inflation this year, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says"
SOURCE:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/janet-yellen-uncomfortably-high-inflation/
NBC: "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Americans will likely see another year of ‘very uncomfortably high’ inflation"
SOURCE:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/tre...-says-inflation-could-be-high-for-a-year.html
The worst effects will be seen in the second half of this year. By then, the Russian sanctions will have hurt the western (especially European) economies hard.
"Trade wars, currency wars, world war?". Let's hope the 3rd one is not going to happen.
But we are already seeing the first two.
Buy food, medical supplies, etc. It's more previous than money or gold.
Buy the electronics you need, because later you will not be able to afford them.
Don't know how that pug of a woman can stand in front of an audience what an embarrassing human being.
Where are you looking to make said money?
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
This (and probably) other measures will stimulate the overall population to "accumulate and consume" gold. Just like Americans are consuming hamburgers.
Perhaps Russia will also stop the export of gold and they might team up with China to create some form of gold-based currency. Which they might also use in trade with Iran, India, Pakistan, Venezuela... It could be a digital currency with solid gold backing. Kind-of-a Bitcoin. (This is just in my imagination, of course this could not replace the rouble or the yuan).
But at this time we cannot talk about a "gold standard".
I think Russia might soon start blackmailing us by not selling certain metals and minerals. That will hurt everyone, but could be used as a blakcmail weapon to push "the West" lift some of the sanctions. So, the problem with the sanctions is that Russia has a very strong negotiation position. They can simply not export Titanium, Molybdenum, Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Silver... but still export has and oil AT 5x PRICE. And then we will be strongly hit.
I hope this does not happen.
I think it's still too early to move to risk-on assets. The war isn't going to end so soon, they'll still be fighting next week and probably also the week after.
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
I think everything is going lower. Crypto could go way down, even gold could crash.
What if all goes down and fiat currency turns to rubble just like the rouble and we'll end up livin' like Barney Rubble?
Yeah' we're livin' on the edge!
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Gold won't fall much, at most $1700-$1800. But if you don't hold gold, what will you hold? Dollars?
Meanwhile, ZH has been strangely quiet on the "special operations".
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Gold won't fall much, at most $1700-$1800. But if you don't hold gold, what will you hold? Dollars?
Meanwhile, ZH has been strangely quiet on the "special operations".
I never understood why people consider ZeroHedge even remotely credible. I don't. Some obscure "Tyler Durden" guy is writing most of the content.
Question almost everything that's there, unless it comes from concrete sources.
I sold out of oil because Oil will likely be cheaper than now in few years.
Bare in mind 70% of my investment are in SAFE boring real blue chips like, CBA, RIO, CSL, BHP, Amazon, Mac bank, Westpac plus Wesfarmers and 10% in managed funds. I no longer have a single ETF.
You and most other members have the awareness to read and judge what to take onboard or what to ignore depending on individual circumstances.
But some really don't, so I want to spell it out, my views on each company below are just my simple educated guess and each company can become worthless. If some crash and I don't sell out in time it won't change my retirement plans much, so invest accordingly to your individual circumstances
No one should create an investment portfolio from the stocks listed below with 40% of ones life savings. Anything over 50% is a bad idea and crazy
Where I am looking for outsized growth is simple, ESG materials Lithium, Rare Earth, Graphite, Copper and Nickel as it the new Iron/Oil. (Cobalt as well but it is so rare I cant be bothered researching that)
Light Blue Chip will keep these for 10 years plus, with long term outlook, though will sell down occasionally to buy other opportunities listed below in mid, lower and gambling tier. I have high conviction for these two stocks
PLS - Outlook Tripple plus first Dividends
AKE- Outlook Double plus first Dividends
All bought at low double digit cents
Mid Tier 5 year horizon with 4x to 6x return
INR, AVZ, FFX have 50,000 to 250,000 shares each company. Unlikely I will top up. (All bought in the single digit cents or teens)
LTR - I was late to the party, bought with Oil money at $1.40 recently
There are also many other great lithium plays like CXO and LKE, cant invest in everything
Lower Tier 3 year 10 to 20x
AZL
SYA
Have over 50,000 already and will be topping up to 100,000 shares each before 25c
Not that keen on VUL, PLL but many other good ones like GLN, INF, EUR and LRS
Gambling 5 year 50x to 100X
These are all below 5c today, just few months ago was half or less!!!!!!
1MC, EVR, QXR and RLC in that order - goal to aquire 250,000 shares in each on dips
I also hold other ESG materials as bonus side plays.....
Rare Earths - LYC, ASM and ARU
Graphite - RNU
Nickel - NIC
(I dont reserach REE, Nickel and Graphite enough to have big holdings in any)
I dont buy junior Copper or Cobalt players as it is huge gamble. A lithium explorer can become a miner with few hundred millions to much less than billion in investment, where as a copper explorer will need many billions in funding to start a mine!
But there are many other sectors, bearing in mind that in 30 years the living standards of Chinese will be closer to average South Koreans than upper class North Koreans
Iron will pick up again to rebuild Ukraine and China will start finishing of all the apartments that have stalled.
Copper will go nuts as people get EV around the world, than consider how much copper is required just in china for the electricifation of rural areas picking up a pace in China etc
Livestocks - as people get richer, all want more meat
Hydrogen will be big but it is fews year too early to invest
If you have access to HK stock market, Baidu, TenCents, Allibaba, Didi are all bargain today looking at 5 year cycles. I wouldnt hold them via US markets though.
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I like to read from both sides. I see myself as a third party, watching them fight for power. I want to know the "games" they are playing. Some play the "good guy", and we know, it's just a narrative. It's self-interest for everyone.
@TheEnd, have a look here then make your own mind up. https://www.silverstackers.com/forums/index.php?threads/2020-collapse.93996/page-227#post-1237357
I sold out of oil because Oil will likely be cheaper than now in few year.
Bare in mind 70% of my investment are in SAFE boring real blue chips like, CBA, RIO, CSL, BHP, Amazon, Mac bank, Westpac plus Wesfarmers and 10% in managed funds. I no longer have a single ETF.
You and most other members have the awareness to read and judge what to take onboard or to ignore depending on individual circumstances.
But some really don't, so I want to spell it out, my views on each company below are just my simple educated guess and each company can become worthless. If some crash and I don't sell out in time it won't change my retirement plans much, so invest accordingly to your individual circumstances
No one should create an investment portfolio from the stocks listed below with 40% of ones life savings. Anything over 50% is a bad idea and crazy
Where I am looking for outsized growth is simple, ESG materials Lithium, Rare Earth, Graphite, Copper and Nickel as it the new Iron/Oil. (Cobalt as well but its so rare I cant be bothered researching that)
Light Blue Chip will keep these for 10 years plus, with long term outlook, though will sell down occasionally to buy other opportunities listed below in mid, lower and gambling tier. I have high conviction for these two stocks
PLS - Outlook Tripple plus first Dividends
AKE- Outlook Double plus first Dividends
All bought at low double digit cents
Mid Tier 5 year horizon with 4x to 6x return
INR, AVZ, FFX have 50,000 to 250,000 shares each company. Unlikely I will top up. (All bought in the single digit cents or teens)
LTR - I was late to the party, bought with Oil money at $1.40 recently
There are also many other great lithium plays like CXO and LKE, cant invest in everything
Lower Tier 3 year 10 to 20x
AZL
SYA
Have over 50,000 already and will be topping up to 100,000 shares each before 25c
Not that keen on VUL, PLL but many other good ones like GLN, INF, EUR and LRS
Gambling 5 year 50x to 100X
These are all below 5c.
1MC, EVR, QXR and RLC in that order - goal to aquire 250,000 shares in each on dips
In other ESG materials I also own small side bonus plays on
Rare Earths - LYC, ASM and ARU
Graphite - RNU
Nickel - NIC.
(I dont reserach REE, Nickel and Graphite enough to have big holdings)
I dont buy junior Copper or Cobalt players as it is huge gamble. A lithium explorer can become a miner with few hundred millions to much less than billion in investment, where as a copper explorer will need many billions in funding to start a mine!
But there are many other sectors, bearing in mind that in 30 years the living standards of average Chinese will be closer to average South Koreans than upper class North Koreans
Iron will pick up again to rebuild Ukraine and China will start finishing of all the apartments that have stalled.
Copper will go nuts as people get EV arround the worls, consider just in china the electricifation of rural areas taking up a pace in China etc
Livestocks - people will get richer and want more meat
Hydrogen will be big but it is fews year too early to invest
If you have access to HK stock market, Baidu, TenCents, Allibaba, Didi are all bargain looking at 5 year cycles. I wouldnt hold them via US markets though.
I guess I’ll have to grow a 10 million dollar portfolio before managing one!!
Careful on that. The more money, the more investment, the more stressful.
Why would you need ten million?
even if starting from 10,000 or $100,000, its a good start.
Say you had 100,000
70k in into blue chip, solid 7%
30K giving you 25% average
in 5 years it will be $250,000
Not bad, especially considering I am wanting 50% return on average over 5 years for the ESG.
If achieved just with 100,000 = 70k split 30K over 5 years is $375,000
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So true, the more wealth I create, the goal changes from creating wealth to maintaing wealth.
a 25 to 30 year with 100,000 to invest for 5 years should have totally different risk profile to
a 35 to 50 year old with 250,000K
a 60 year old with 1m or 500k
To @heartastack why do I believe firmly in ESG.... a baby born today... what are the chances that the first car they own is EV or Petrol?
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
In a video I heard Michael Saylor saying something like "you can rent out Bitcoin" - mentions this vaguely and compares Bitcoin to owning a rental propery, doesn't explain exactly what he's referring to.
I suppose he is referring to renting out Bitcoin for money, instead of renting a property.
But it's unclear how (technically, without actually giving it away to someone)... do you know perhaps?
I suppose he is referring to renting out Bitcoin for money, instead of renting a property.
But it's unclear how (technically, without actually giving it away to someone)... do you know perhaps?