2020 Collapse

Back to Harry Dent, he wrote this in July 2021:

What I’m seeing No. 1 right now is that prices on home sales have gone down. Real estate is still bubbling up, but U.S. home sales have gone down 22% or 23% in just a matter of the last five or six months. That’s a sign there’s a limit to the bubble.
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https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/0...kely-within-3-months/?slreturn=20211027172650

His argument is that the stock market was going to crash by the end of September (among other predictions like BTC crashing 90 - 95%), falling house sales is his indicator. And for the first 6 months of 2021 house sales were declining, an indication he would argue that the RE bubble has popped. You can see the downward trend below in new home sales, time will tell whether that downward trend is beginning to reverse and we'll resume the upward trend of much of the last 5 years.

united-states-new-home-sales@2x.png


united-states-new-home-sales@2x.png


Interestingly he's a deflationist, so I've got one thing in common with him. :p
 
leo25 said:
I disagree. Other mechanisms do this job much better, for example increasing/decreasing private sector borrowing or increasing/decreasing government spending (both indifferent to taxation).
The taxation tool (today) is pointless in my view.

I would say get rid of government debt and get rid of taxation. Two clunky legacy tools that's become irrelevant in today's world.
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Encouraging private sector borrowing has been an abject failure. SMEs are not interested in taking on more debt in this current environment. Only the big boys are borrowing, and much of that is going into stock buybacks.

Increasing government spending would work. Increasing government spending is the other half of the tax/spend strategy aka fiscal policy, it injects more money into the real economy, then taxation policy is used to cool the inflationary effects of this ramp up in government spending which causes cost rises in the private sector. You can't have government spending without taxation as a tool to control the effects. Just merely stopping government spending is not enough, you need a tool that removes excess currency in the private sector ie tax.

I'd be happy to get rid of taxation if we had privately issued currencies that can be inflated or deflated as required in order to protect the purchasing power of individuals. But that's a long way off being implemented in the mainstream and is a threat to the government's fiat currency system.
 
Some interesting developments seem to be happening in the gold markets which should be noted and monitored by anyone interested in the gold market.

Firstly there seems to have been a large unexplained disappearance of nearly 700 tonnes of gold from the LBMA in Britain over the last couple of months.

The LBMA (current London Gold Pool ) is still a very secretive and very exclusive club despite the fact that it is 10x larger than the Comex, very little is known
about what goes on in there.

While 700 tonnes might seem like a small amount compared to the total world mined gold (which is estimated to be nearly 200,000 tonnes) it is nevertheless
a significant amount, as most of the world's gold is in vaults and is never traded on the open markets.

And secondly, there seems to be a shortage developing in the availability of the large 400 oz wholesale gold bars, which if it continues will lead to a shortage of
gold coins as it is these bars that the world's mints acquire to make gold coins.

I am very positive and optimistic about the gold prices over the next few months and anyone considering making a sizeable purchase in the future might want
to consider doing it sooner rather than later.;)
 
hardyakkagold said:
Firstly there seems to have been a large unexplained disappearance of nearly 700 tonnes of gold from the LBMA in Britain over the last couple of months.

The LBMA (current London Gold Pool ) is still a very secretive and very exclusive club despite the fact that it is 10x larger than the Comex, very little is known
about what goes on in there.
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The top secret data around the LBMA holdings is leaked on their website every month.

https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-holdings-data

You never heard this from me. :cool:
 
Alessio Rastani makes original remarks about Bitcoin: it seems like when there's less appetite for Risk, Bitcoin grows, but when there is uncertainty, then Bitcoin usually goes down.

I a bear market cycle occurs on the stock market, Bitcoin could collapse way down and drag the entire crypto market down with it.

I also think this is highly likely.


My big question is: what is the crypto market crashes BEFORE the stock market?

Then, what will cryptos do during the stock market's bear cycle?

Nevertheless, cryptos are terrible stores of value. Terrible.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
The top secret data around the LBMA holdings is leaked on their website every month.
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If you think that they report truly their real data about gold holdings and gold dealings, then you are a bigger fool than I thought.

Get back to your MSM and start lapping up the fearmongering Bull Shit about the new Omicron variant.

I am sure that the fact that "Omicron' is an anagram of "Moronic" is a pure coincidence to you, Hey shiney old boy;)
 
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TreasureHunter said:
My big question is: what is the crypto market crashes BEFORE the stock market?

Then, what will cryptos do during the stock market's bear cycle?
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Well if they crash before the stock market does, then they will continue to crash even further during the stock market meltdown:rolleyes:

As margin calls will require stock market investors to sell whatever they have to cover their obligations, and cryptos will be among the items liquidated for whatever they can get for them.
 
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hardyakkagold said:
If you think that they report truly their real data about gold holdings and gold dealings, then you are a bigger fool than I thought.
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What? Even bigger than the last time you said that? Or the time before that? Or the time before that? One day I may surprise you and begin to believe all your fantasy stories about underground cities, subway tunnels linking Pine Gap to Canberra, the Rockefellas owning all the world governments...

Nah. Joking. I'm not that deranged. :D

hardyakkagold said:
Get back to your MSM and start lapping up the Bull Shit about the new Omicron variant.
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The link to the top secret LBMA data was not published in any MSM article, it was leaked on their website, monthly.

But you didn't hear that from me.
 
TreasureHunter said:
My big question is: what is the crypto market crashes BEFORE the stock market?
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Owen Rask said:
Studies tell us once every 357 days the market goes into a "correction" (on average). A correction is a fall of 10% before a recovery.

Other studies tell us that just one-in-five corrections turn into bear markets.
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So on average the stock market turns bearish once in every 5 years.

TreasureHunter said:
Nevertheless, cryptos are terrible stores of value. Terrible.
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qGRmcFSy


Terrible store of value. Just terrible. :rolleyes:
 
JohnnyBravo300 said:
Why are people talking about a crash?
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oil contracts went into negative during first wave covid locked down
Oh-Micron is a dozen time worse, and market delivered a 10x worse case drop
but lock down and vaccines again are cards that cannot be replayed again
 
Agreed, there is no or very few governments telling their citizens to buy PM's. Talk to most people on the street and they don't even know where to buy them. "They" want it this way.
 
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