Newbie needs advice on strategy

[Silverling]

How does the government know how much bullion you have got?

When you do your paperwork to apply for the pension they ask that question, you are suppose to declare it.

This will explain why the Australian property market only goes up. But if there were an fiscal crisis that will cause the Australian government to cut pensions, wouldn't it also cause a collapse of the property market because there's less incentive to keep the multi-million dollar house?

The Australian government has never cut pensions as far as I know. It would be political suicide if they ever did. During the big -55% draw down when GFC came along people assets plummeted and incomes came down accordingly and thus brought them within the thresholds which meant they could get even more free government pension. The Government had to pay out more during and after the GFC, not less. It's because peoples assets and income had diminished. The less you have, the more pension you get. From the GFC until last early last year property only went up. People viewed it as safe haven. It is off the boil now and has come off a few percentage points.

By the way, would this also explain why the physical market is so vibrant in Australia? Because money in the bank will go into the asset count?

If you are talking about property, then it has come off a bit. It is still very expensive to buy here though, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney. There is also an election later this year and everyone is wondering what the new government will do. There has been talk of a lot of changes, let's see who gets in and what those changes will be. People are nervous about any new government.

 

[Gullintanni]

Much like heroin and meth silver is nice to dabble with now and again but over time you are going to find yourself unable to stop.
Silver is silver so the cheapest you can get is always the best .
Now some with very short memories will argue i am wrong and for anyone who dares to say i am wrong on this point will incite my wrath and have me troll the internet for some of the sales during 2011 where 35% silver nickles were selling over spot.

When things are quiet and id argue NORMAL then people like pretty things , but if you are collecting for the next spike then it does not matter what your gear looks like as long as it is silver it will sell.

Old sterling silver and local silver coins are a great place to start and with the old sterling you may get lucky and get some rare and collectible pieces that sell well above spot.

A couple of years back i got a sterling silver prize plate from Wimbledon but as it was from a women's tournament no one wanted to pay above the spot price and i ended up melting it down , so you have to get lucky.

 

[Glenis]

I learnt about this ban on foreign buyers but I don't quite understand why would you need to ban when you can simply impose a stamp duty or property purchase tax? Singapore has a 20% buyer's stamp duty for buyers from China. HK has a 30% stamp duty. It's not difficult to see that this stamp duty is tremendously profitable for the government which makes $400k from a typical $2m property sale where the buyer is a foreigner. Singapore's stamp duty on property purchase extend to corporations so foreigners cannot setup a company to circumvent the tax.

It's not so much a case of money, we don't have the houses to sell to foreigners. I think there is a loophole where they can build a new house rather than buy an existing house. Although, the houses we do have kiwis can't afford to buy anyway. It's not until supply exceeds depend, mortgage interest rates go up or some other building crisis that prices may drop back to being affordable.

The Australian government has never cut pensions as far as I know.

Same in NZ we have a set amount everyone gets. The very poor retirees can also get extra if their rent is extremely high or they have a medical condition and need support to do lawns or a few hours of home help etc. Although everyone moans, I think we are very lucky in NZ! A retired couple gets $616 per week. Providing your house is paid off, you can live on that - no luxuries, no overseas travel, not much room for emergencies. Nobody should rely on the government for all of your income but most people do, to their peril. Everyone needs alternative income and emergency assets, whether cash or gold or silver.

 

[DrSilver]

Hi Glenis, welcome aboard. I am not a frequent poster but been involved in PM's since 2006 and am a fellow Kiwi. There are some great local places to buy in NZ and Aus, great secure places to store if required and some great mining stocks on the ASX so pretty easy to set in place a plan for exposure to PM's.
I agree silver is very heavy and hard to cart around/store, but the current ratio really favours buying it over gold at the moment. The NZ mint has great storage options and is very secure, based in Auckland if you want to buy some store it and not lug it around.

If you haven't checked them out already, I highly recommend the work Chris Martenson and his team do at peakprosperity.com, some real 'big picture; stuff there in terms of making long term plans to navigate the future.

DrJ

 

[JulieW]

Martenson has a free report that may be of use:

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114677/2019-beginning-end-free-premium-report

Step 1: Make sure your wealth is safely managed or entirely out of the markets. Our endorsed financial advisor uses a variety of hedging techniques to manage risk on existing positions to both limit downside as well as generate some additional returns. Keeping money in cash in the system to us means using TreasuryDirect in part to keep your cash in the safest of all possible places – with the US Treasury. If the Treasury fails, well, then we all have much bigger problems to contend with.

Step 2: Have at least 3 months in cash on hand, and out of the banking system.

Step 3: Have at least a 10% position in physical gold in your hot little hands stored somewhere safe where you can get to it yourself, possibly quickly.

Step 4: Check your supplies. Be sure to have all the basics safely stored and readily accessible. Food, water, personal protection, medical supplies, etc. Just in case of supply disruptions but also to give you peace of mind that will free you up for step 5.

Step 5: Be ready to help. The most likely outcome of all this, by far, is just a grinding decline that causes people to lose jobs and hope. Your role, as one who is prepared, will be to offer support. As much as you can.​

 

[SlyGuy]

...Same in NZ we have a set amount everyone gets. The very poor retirees can also get extra if their rent is extremely high or they have a medical condition and need support to do lawns or a few hours of home help etc. Although everyone moans, I think we are very lucky in NZ! A retired couple gets $616 per week. Providing your house is paid off, you can live on that - no luxuries, no overseas travel, not much room for emergencies. Nobody should rely on the government for all of your income but most people do, to their peril. Everyone needs alternative income and emergency assets, whether cash or gold or silver.

This is why AUD and many other currencies are going down the drain in buying power, though. People are excited about all-time high gold prices in AUD, but that should actually be a red flag of concern for their dollar value and inflation. Study the history of Japan economy and you will see what the future of most industrial nations will be once people start living longer.

Sure, you might always get that $616 per week (or more)... but there is a very real chance that amount will start to buy less and less food, housing, medicines, etc year after year. This is where PM, esp gold, can be useful... long term store of wealth and purchase power.

 

[sgbuyer]

The Australian government has never cut pensions as far as I know. It would be political suicide if they ever did. During the big -55% draw down when GFC came along people assets plummeted and incomes came down accordingly and thus brought them within the thresholds which meant they could get even more free government pension. The Government had to pay out more during and after the GFC, not less. It's because peoples assets and income had diminished. The less you have, the more pension you get. From the GFC until last early last year property only went up. People viewed it as safe haven. It is off the boil now and has come off a few percentage points.

Regardless of politics, due to longer lifespan, all pensions are ultimately unsustainable. Even in a no pension country like Singapore, there's a national compulsory savings scheme which the government is trying very hard to delay the maturity payout for reasons that are unknown to the public.

 

[Glenis]

I highly recommend the work Chris Martenson and his team do at peakprosperity.com, some real 'big picture; stuff there in terms of making long term plans to navigate the future.

Martenson has a free report that may be of use:

Thank you both - I've had a look and there is plenty of good advice there.Taking notes LOL

Sure, you might always get that $616 per week (or more)... but there is a very real chance that amount will start to buy less and less food, housing, medicines, etc year after year. This is where PM, esp gold, can be useful... long term store of wealth and purchase power.

I don't plan to rely solely on a government pension, it's a decent amount but there isn't much lee way, you're still stressed over car repairs, larger than normal electricity bills etc. It's important to have secondary sources of income or substantial savings.

 

[DavidRich]

hey, if you haven't used silver at spot deals, I strongly recommend you to do it - it is one-time offer for new buyers and you can get 10 oz at spot (from several dealers) https://trustedpmdealers.com/deals?category=silver-at-spot&sort=the-newest

 

[Glenis]

hey, if you haven't used silver at spot deals, I strongly recommend you to do it - it is one-time offer for new buyers and you can get 10 oz at spot (from several dealers) https://trustedpmdealers.com/deals?category=silver-at-spot&sort=the-newest

Thanks, hadn't heard of them. I'll have a look for someone who sends to NZ.

 

[ZaidaBoBaida]

I might see if I can get a 5 oz bar next time I get paid.

 

[sgbuyer]

Crypto's are too volatile, I'll consider BTC when it gets under $100 which may be never. The choice seems to be gold and silver, for better or for worse.

Hope you have gotten the gold and silver you wanted, the price has exploded since Xmas. Crypto has fallen in comparison. I remembered in Nov/Dec people were practically dumping silver for btc.

 

[SlyGuy]

Hope you have gotten the gold and silver you wanted, the price has exploded since Xmas. Crypto has fallen in comparison. I remembered in Nov/Dec people were practically dumping silver for btc.

Anyone trading gold for BTC are probably the same people who would trade oil or farmland for boxes of finger monkey toys or lottery tickets.

Metals are the undefeated champ when measured against any other currency in human history (all govt currency, alt currencies, and now make-believe digital currency).

 

[Jim4silver]

Anyone trading gold for BTC are probably the same people who would trade oil or farmland for boxes of finger monkey toys or lottery tickets.

Metals are the undefeated champ when measured against any other currency in human history (all govt currency, alt currencies, and now make-believe digital currency).

I saw this first hand. Back when Bitcoin was on the way up (around $12,000-$14000 iirc) I was at a local coin store and a gal (mid 50s or so) was quite happy and was bragging about how well she and hubby did with Bitcoin up to that point. She was selling 6 figures worth of gold and said she was putting it into Bitcoin. She was so eager to buy the Bitcoin she directed the store to wire her the money because she couldn't wait for the check to clear her bank. I was sitting right next to her looking at a collection and could hear all of this clearly.

She asked the guy at the store what he thought and he was like "I like gold better but it is your choice". I remember feeling bad that day about myself missing the bitcoin train.

It was only a few weeks later the price was on the way down. I doubt she sold at the top but don't know for sure. She was saying Bitcoin was headed to $100K etc so she probably is still holding on.

 

[sgbuyer]

Anyone trading gold for BTC are probably the same people who would trade oil or farmland for boxes of finger monkey toys or lottery tickets.

Metals are the undefeated champ when measured against any other currency in human history (all govt currency, alt currencies, and now make-believe digital currency).

I came across a YouTube interview on da Vinci j who supposedly made 10 million on bitcoins after buying/mining bitcoins from $1 like 7 years ago. You have a very smart man and a programmer who needs a 20000x bagger just to earn a reasonable fortune. If we assume the same to be true today, this means bitcoin (cryptos in general, only using bitcoin just as an example) needs to go up to maybe $100,000 or $300,000 just for an investor that buys it for $3000 today only to break even in say 5 years because some of it will be lost.

This kind of gain is not reasonable so real investment money would not go into cryptos at this price level.

 

[RBrowny]

When it comes to bitcoins, my strategy is as follows: When it blows up and crashes, that's the time to swoop in and buy. Always buy when others are panicking and panic when others are buying. That logic has done well for me in the cryptocurrency world thus far.

 

[JohnnyBravo300]

All bad advice except maybe for the 1000 oz of silver and the rest in gold. That could make sense.
Put it ALL into metals. Store it at home hidden and safe, not any vault or bank, same as anything that important. You wouldnt store your guns or preps somewhere else would ya?There are already threads here about those nightmares.
We all know the ship is sinking, might as well be in the right lifeboat when it does.
The bail in laws are definitely something to worry about.
That's all.

 

[alor]

 

[alor]

serious stuff

 

[Krakked789]

Does anyone else get hungry when they see such beautiful silver bars?