Gloom and Doom for Oz Thread

[leo25]

Leo, indulge me. Exactly which ones are ‘massaged’ data and what are the true figures according to yourself?

did you not understand the point that video made?

Even though the data points at the time said things looked good, the truth was the data was not representing what was really happening due to cheery picking input data. (garbage in, garbage out)

When i see the RBA increase interest rates then i will believe things are fundamentally good. So my reference is what the RBA do.

 

[House]

did you not understand the point that video made?

Even though the data points at the time said things looked good, the truth was the data was not representing what was really happening due to cheery picking input data.

Not really as not going to watch it. 10mins? Yeah nah.

So exactly which data that I’ve posted is not representing what is really happening due to being cheery picked?

 

[leo25]

You referencing data/quotes from MSM is just as meaningless as someone claiming the economy is going to collapse because they read something on Zerohedge. Best to stay in the middle and not be on either of the delusional ends.

I would say BS to this;

The total number of rental vacancies in Australia has declined over the past year.

 

[House]

You referencing data points from MSM is just as meaningless as someone claiming the economy is going to collapse because they read something on Zerohedge. Best to stay in the middle and not be on either of the delusional ends.

I would say BS to this;

You’ll be disappointed to know they’re actually not MSM data points. Anyway, the MSM don’t report so much good news

If you call BS on “The total number of rental vacancies in Australia has declined over the past year.”, care to provide stats that say otherwise?

 

[leo25]

If you call BS on “The total number of rental vacancies in Australia has declined over the past year.”, care to provide stats that say otherwise?

I’ve been tracking my own data over the past 2 years and most suburbs that I’ve been tracking across Australia are showing record amount of rental availabilities. Then there are all the empty apartments I drive by every day. Then you also add that the largest amount of appartments haven’t even come online yet, so that would indicate those numbers will increase into 2019.

 

[leo25]

You’ll be disappointed to know they’re actually not MSM data points.

Btw I would trust SQM Research reports as much as I would trust martin armstrong reports

 

[willrocks]

Not a bad result for a Wednesday. Whereas last Saturday’s was a smidge under 60%

I’m pretty sure it was last Saturday’s results, updated on Wednesday. I doubt there’s 776 auctions on a Wednesday.

 

[House]

I’ve been tracking my own data over the past 2 years and most suburbs that I’ve been tracking across Australia are showing record amount of rental availabilities. Then there are all the empty apartments I drive by every day. Then you also add that the largest amount of appartments haven’t even come online yet, so that would indicate those numbers will increase into 2019.

Care to provide your own personal stats and a few examples? It’s Aus wide, not cherry picked suburbs that you’ve been watching for 2 years.


Do you knock on each and every apartment every day to make sure nobody is living there? There’s always tens of thousands of empty apartments across all the cities.

Peak completions was earlier this year, project starts have fallen away significantly since then. All the while there’s thousands moving to Syd and a Melb to easily absorb the supply.

 

[leo25]

Care to provide your own personal stats and a few examples? It’s Aus wide, not cherry picked suburbs that you’ve been watching for 2 years.

Let me cherry pick some of the best for you. Even though there are many suburbs that are not as bad as the ones below, there is not one single suburb on my list that has less availability now then before.Thus making me question the numbers you listed.
Campsie: low was 57 in June 2016, now at 131
Zetland: low was 28 in Feb 2017, now at 161
Parramatta: low was 171 in April 2016, now at 385
Glebe: low was 56 in March 2017, now at 137

Do you knock on each and every apartment every day to make sure nobody is living there? There’s always tens of thousands of empty apartments across all the cities.

Does anyone?? But i would imagine an apartment that is 100% empty means no one is living there. Unless after spending $800K for a one bedroom apartment they had no money left for furniture.

Peak completions was earlier this year, project starts have fallen away significantly since then. All the while there’s thousands moving to Syd and a Melb to easily absorb the supply.

Wrong. Peak projects to come online started mid this year and will complete early next year. Still many MEGA projects being built.

But hey you're free to believe all the permabull property data you like. i won't interrupt you anymore. But i really think you should watch the video of Ben Bernanke telling everyone all data looks good before the GFC.

I gave warnings to Silver permabulls back in 2011, Crypto permabulls in 2017 and now property permabulls in 2018. But like all permabulls they never listen and think things always go up.

The property delusion is there is a housing shortage, when that argument fails they say but there will be more migrants. Yes we can just bring in more migrants, but not all migrants can afford to spend a million dollars on housing.

 

[Shaddam IV]

The property delusion is there is a housing shortage, when that argument fails they say but there will be more migrants. Yes we can just bring in more migrants, but not all migrants can afford to spend a million dollars on housing.

The migrants don’t have to spend that money to live in a million dollar house. The government takes the money off us and rents it for them.

 

[leo25]

The migrants don’t have to spend that money to live in a million dollar house. The government takes the money off us and rents it for them.

Out of curiosity how much does government give for rental? I would imagine/hope it’s not enough to support the property bubble.

 

[Shaddam IV]

Out of curiosity how much does government give for rental? I would imagine/hope it’s not enough to support the property bubble.

I really don’t know, I am just bitching and being a bit sarcastic because poorer Australians are competing for housing and assistance and hospital beds and the government is supposed to be looking after them, not importing a permenant welfare class and prioritising their interests. Migrants seem to automatically go to the front of the queue for everything these days. If a pensioner can’t find accommodation I don’t see .gov putting them in interim accommodation at Sheraton hotels.

Rant off now. Back on topic.

 

[Pr176]

 

[Pr176]

Delete

 

[Pr176]

Bank run anyone!!

 

[House]

Let me cherry pick some of the best for you. Even though there are many suburbs that are not as bad as the ones below, there is not one single suburb on my list that has less availability now then before.Thus making me question the numbers you listed.
Campsie: low was 57 in June 2016, now at 131
Zetland: low was 28 in Feb 2017, now at 161
Parramatta: low was 171 in April 2016, now at 385
Glebe: low was 56 in March 2017, now at 137

Again, the statement was about Aus in general but you give 4 NSW suburbs which is a good enough overview I suppose. Though still very low considering in Campsie there’s 4,200 rentable dwellings and there’s only 131 available? Zetland has 2,600 rentable dwellings and only 161 available.

Does anyone?? But i would imagine an apartment that is 100% empty means no one is living there. Unless after spending $800K for a one bedroom apartment they had no money left for furniture.

Apparently the census does and there's a lot less empty apartments now than there was in the last census despite all the building since then.

Wrong. Peak projects to come online started mid this year and will complete early next year. Still many MEGA projects being built.

Is that so, care to share your source? 140,000 units have been completed so far in the boom, what's another 10-15,000?

I gave warnings to Silver permabulls back in 2011, Crypto permabulls in 2017 and now property permabulls in 2018. But like all permabulls they never listen and think things always go up.

Everyone gives warnings when they see booms, nothing special in that. Did you short silver or crypto or was it just words on a forum? Why does it have to be a crash anyway, why can’t we just have a boom, a tapering, a flatline and a boom again? Just like so many Aus propriety cycles before.

The property delusion is there is a housing shortage, when that argument fails they say but there will be more migrants. Yes we can just bring in more migrants, but not all migrants can afford to spend a million dollars on housing.

Just like everyone else, they don’t need to spend a mill, they can head to the Wild Wild West and buy something for $650k.

 

[leo25]

Why does it have to be a crash anyway, why can’t we just have a boom, a tapering, a flatline and a boom again? Just like so many Aus propriety cycles before.

aww how everyone struggles with causality. Why oh why everyone always ask. Why can't i drink a bottle of vodka and not feel crap the next day? Why does excessive speculation result in a bust? All you need to know is they have a strong statistical correlation. Action B always causes action C, if you don't want action C to happen then don't do action B.

 

[willrocks]

 

[leo25]

Though still very low considering in Campsie there’s 4,200 rentable dwellings and there’s only 131 available? Zetland has 2,600 rentable dwellings and only 161 available.

No, because not all dwellings are listed on realestate.com.au. An example is a 6+ months old apartment complex near me, where about 12 apartments are listed in total for rent/sale, yet i count well over 30 empty apartments when i walk by. I've even spoken to the agent and they told me they only listed a few online. The developer will not list all apartments at once in order to keep prices higher. Not a new tactic, so should not surprise anyone.

So the true number in key developed suburbs would be about 2-3x higher then whats listed online. That would make the availability rate in Zetland around 15%, which is very high considering there is a property "shortage"

 

[House]

aww how everyone struggles with causality. Why oh why everyone always ask. Why can't i drink a bottle of vodka and not feel crap the next day? Why does excessive speculation result in a bust? All you need to know is they have a strong statistical correlation. Action B always causes action C, if you don't want action C to happen then don't do action B.

So... how many busts have there been to booms?

No, because not all dwellings are listed on realestate.com.au. An example is a 6+ months old apartment complex near me, where about 12 apartments are listed in total for rent/sale, yet i count well over 30 empty apartments when i walk by."

Indeed they’re not, hence why I asked for your source on them.

Plenty of reasons why they’re still empty, not everyone settles at the exact same time when a building is finished. Should go knock on those 30 doors in 6 months time, empirical evidence is far more useful than observational. As I said there’s 90,030+ “empty” apartments across just Sydney and this is the norm.

Nice how they picked someone who ‘believes’ their property is worth $1.2m after a DIY reno. Poor fella should have added a bedroom and sold last year, his neighbor got $1.4m.