Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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Tether FUD.

‘The mother of all crypto scams’: Bitcoin’s price manipulated during ‘meteoric rise’, researchers find
IF YOU’RE still holding on to your bitcoins in the hope of another massive price rise, we may have some bad news.
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https://www.news.com.au/finance/mon...d/news-story/12bb2f4c2b0e11ec54761560d048e88e

There my be a correlation between the amount of Tether traded in 2017 and the surge in price of BTC and other crypto assets but that does not suggest it was the cause, nor is it evidence of manipulation.

Bart Chilton interviews Jeffrey Tucker and Christy Ai about the price fixing allegations, it begins at 4:06.

 
Yeah we seem to dump, then plateau then dump again

I'm playing the long game here - don't really care about the short term except it does give more opportunities to buy at low prices and top up the bags

I'm still confident long term we're going to moon in comparison to where we are now, so for that reason I'll keep topping up when I can
 
Soprano16 said:
Yeah we seem to dump, then plateau then dump again

I'm playing the long game here - don't really care about the short term except it does give more opportunities to buy at low prices and top up the bags

I'm still confident long term we're going to moon in comparison to where we are now, so for that reason I'll keep topping up when I can
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If youre confident that it will go back up to $10k, $15k, or higher shouldnt you arbitage and sell now.
Than buy back in when you believe it has hit rock bottom, seems bizarre to hold when you know it’s at a down trend?
 
What Shiney said

Nobody knows how low it will go - you'll never time it perfectly so for someone like myself who's going long I'll just keep DCA and evening out my buy levels

It's all about accumulation now, not cashing out
 
I’m not talking timing it perfectly. Just in general sense, it’s not like it moves by 500% in 1hour.

Unless you believe today is the absolute rock bottom day, than selling today will be profit.

The sentiment I don’t get is, if one feels it will be cheaper tomorrow why buy it today. Much like people shopping at David Jones two weeks ago, with sign all over the store saying biggest sales starts tomorrow.

That is unless hodl goal is to just own it, regardless of what the price $1 or $20,000
 
Ipv6Ready said:
I’m not talking timing it perfectly. Just in general sense, it’s not like it moves by 500% in 1hour.

Unless you believe today is the absolute rock bottom day, than selling today will be profit.

The sentiment I don’t get is, if one feels it will be cheaper tomorrow why buy it today. Much like people shopping at David Jones two weeks ago, with sign all over the store saying biggest sales starts tomorrow.

That is unless hodl goal is to just own it, regardless of what the price $1 or $20,000
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We don't know that today will be the absolute rock bottom, and we don't know if it will be cheaper tomorrow

Although I got into crypto before last years bull run and did very well, I have cashed out several times and have banked profit, but in the past 5 months I have entered new projects that have continued to drop with the market, so by dollar cost averaging I have been able to balance out my buy levels

Eg/ I bought a coin for $10, it then dropped to $5 so I was down 50% of my investment, but I then bought more at $5, however it's now $2 so I am down more so now I have bought even more at $2 so my entire bag is averaged out and now I only need it to get to $4 to breakeven (where as if I cashed out at $5 etc I would have lost) and anything above becomes profit, and because I believe in the long term these projects will be valued a lot higher it makes sense for me to hold and not sell due to the levels I previously bought in
 
Soprano16 said:
We don't know that today will be the absolute rock bottom, and we don't know if it will be cheaper tomorrow

Although I got into crypto before last years bull run and did very well, I have cashed out several times and have banked profit, but in the past 5 months I have entered new projects that have continued to drop with the market, so by dollar cost averaging I have been able to balance out my buy levels

Eg/ I bought a coin for $10, it then dropped to $5 so I was down 50% of my investment, but I then bought more at $5, however it's now $2 so I am down more so now I have bought even more at $2 so my entire bag is averaged out and now I only need it to get to $4 to breakeven (where as if I cashed out at $5 etc I would have lost) and anything above becomes profit, and because I believe in the long term these projects will be valued a lot higher it makes sense for me to hold and not sell due to the levels I previously bought in
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By my calculations you would have been better off selling at $5. Will go over the maths when I get home in about an hour.
 
Eureka Moments said:
By my calculations you would have been better off selling at $5. Will go over the maths when I get home in about an hour.
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The numbers I made up are not real, but the example should get the point across

There could well have been a time to sell, but when you're going long like I am I want to accumulate as many units as possible at the best price possible, so when I buy x amount at y price and it drops I'll then look to buy even more units at a lower price to average out my entire bags price per unit
 
Soprano16 said:
We don't know that today will be the absolute rock bottom, and we don't know if it will be cheaper tomorrow

Although I got into crypto before last years bull run and did very well, I have cashed out several times and have banked profit, but in the past 5 months I have entered new projects that have continued to drop with the market, so by dollar cost averaging I have been able to balance out my buy levels

Eg/ I bought a coin for $10, it then dropped to $5 so I was down 50% of my investment, but I then bought more at $5, however it's now $2 so I am down more so now I have bought even more at $2 so my entire bag is averaged out and now I only need it to get to $4 to breakeven (where as if I cashed out at $5 etc I would have lost) and anything above becomes profit, and because I believe in the long term these projects will be valued a lot higher it makes sense for me to hold and not sell due to the levels I previously bought in
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You and I have different methods of investing. My fault for thinking everyone has similar views to me.

I’m very much a buy full allotment when (I think it is) low and hold to a level (which I think is high enough) than dump the lot. Will never get the full benefit of a trend but I’m happy catching 50%.

I guess if youre actively trading X you can make it work against the trend.

Case in point I bought a significant number of oil producers and explorer shares when oil was $30 barrel, it was low enough for me (it went lower to $20 or so) and recently sold out at $65 (oil might go higher to $100) but no longer have any.

Still holding on to lithium shares, gold metal and company shares but otherwise I’m all cash at the moment. Basically waiting for the bubble to pop in housing and shares.
 
Good Video

A good reminder that human emotion is what this is all about - the tech is really secondary, and a distant second too

 
Soprano16 said:
The numbers I made up are not real, but the example should get the point across

There could well have been a time to sell, but when you're going long like I am I want to accumulate as many units as possible at the best price possible, so when I buy x amount at y price and it drops I'll then look to buy even more units at a lower price to average out my entire bags price per unit
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If you buy 1 coin @ $10, 2 more @ $5, and 5 more @ $2 you hold 8 coins with an average cost of $3.75. Total spent $30.

However If you buy 1 coin @ $10, sell the coin @ $5 you have a $5 loss. But when price gets to $2 you are able to buy 12.5 coins with the remaining $25. Total spent $30. Break even point is $2.40 and you also have the $5 loss to offset against capital gains for tax purposes.
 
Eureka Moments said:
If you buy 1 coin @ $10, 2 more @ $5, and 5 more @ $2 you hold 8 coins with an average cost of $3.75. Total spent $30.

However If you buy 1 coin @ $10, sell the coin @ $5 you have a $5 loss. But when price gets to $2 you are able to buy 12.5 coins with the remaining $25. Total spent $30. Break even point is $2.40 and you also have the $5 loss to offset against capital gains for tax purposes.
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This is all done in hindsight though so I don't think it's practical

How do you know that a coin will drop from $10 to $5, and then from $5 to $2?

You don't, which is why dollar cost averaging and buying the dip to average out your buy levels is the correct thing to do, I think
 
Soprano16 said:
This is all done in hindsight though so I don't think it's practical

How do you know that a coin will drop from $10 to $5, and then from $5 to $2?

You don't, which is why dollar cost averaging and buying the dip to average out your buy levels is the correct thing to do, I think
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A good real life situation to look at would be XRP/USD (merely because its price this year and right now can be used as examples that mirror the 10-5-price drop ratios with the future possibility of dropping to 2).
Its price dropped from its peak around $3 to $1 in January. 66% is a fair dip so worth buying I reckon.
By the end of March its price is $0.50 so buy dip again.
After rising April/May to near 90 cents it has fallen again to 50 cents. Is this the bottom now and time to buy more? Or maybe time to sell some or all with the view to of waiting for it to drop to 20 cents before reinvesting?
 
After a few boring months, there is now some movement happening. Interesting to see Bitcoin leading the way and regaining market share. Seems like people prefer the battle proven crypto then all these other "improved" cryptos that work better in theory.

Bitcoin is showing some resemblance to gold. Sure it's a bit slow and clunky to use, but everyone knows what it is, it's widely accepted/easy to use and it works.
 
All the recent BTC movement is because everyone is hoping the ETF will get approved next month

Total Market Cap isn't increasing much, alts just moving into BTC predominantly, and all because ETF
 
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