You were saying $13 only a week or so back based on COT analysis. If you guess enough numbers eventually you'll get one right.
Perma-bears like miss link will be squealing like pigs during the entire bull phase that is just getting started.
sure, why not :lol: all I know is when an QUALITY asset like silver is 70% down, I'm very bullish. When ANYTHING goes up 2 or 3 or more times, then I'm very bearish. In between, I buy on weakness and I sell on strength. pretty simple, but it seems that people here seem more inclined to play Nostradamus. The day silver and gold will go to to Pluto, what will it say about the currency you value it with? Are you really gonna sell real wealth for hyper-inflated toilet paper? Think about it. Better start thinking about your silver as a currency, and use it as a numeraire. But that's just me, so don't worry about it
I said $13 after the current cycle ends. And it wasn't really 'analysis', just the part that the net total futures contracts, x 5000 = the amount ounces hedged against price changes, that nearly never end in delivery of the underlying (here silver), represents in the cash price. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1 Notice the correlation between the green (or red+blue) trendline and the spot price. Both peak. Both bottom. This correlation exist since 2011. I'm aware that things can change, but before 2011 there were big silver purchases by the new silver ETF's and alikes, and post 2011 their demand vanished, they ceased to add, just held on the silver stock they built up, with a mere 40 Moz on 500-600 Moz fluctuation with these 3 months price cycles. So I see no reason for the correlation to end. Of course things cannot be said for sure, but what IS sure is that every ounce more stockpiled implies an ounce more sold later, and I chose to wait for low $13 to swap my euro's. If it doesn't happen, so be it. So you just made up that "guessing numbers". Talk about a bottom is not talk about a peak. I think $18 will be the peak price of this 3 months cycle, and I think $13 will be the next bottom. Based on futures market data, and the part of the stocks that I'm aware off. Anything to contribute? Data? Theories? Correlations you see? THAT would be interesting.
The only real game changer is general inflation. Instead, we see quite some prices dropping. All the rest, are temporary stories superimposed on the general inflation trend. Where some buy at peaks. And some sell at bottoms. I try to avoid both. I bought near the peak average though, 2011's average was $32 and most of my silver was bought at the $30-32 occasions in 2011. And back then I thought I was doing a good job by refusing to pay more than $32 while others jumped on $35 $40 upto $50. Later on, I had to reconsider lol!
Now? Nowhere! Waiting for low $13's for a next silver saving. As said! Based on the amount ounces that is, at this $18, hedged on the futures market. Based on the silver ETF's, that still sit on the stocks they added during 2009-2011. Back in 2009-2011, the futures market had the current high position nearly all the time. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1 On 20 januari, end of day price $18.10 it rose further to 55641. ETF's ceased to add in 2011. Nobody replaced their demand! And the old story once repeats: people claiming a next bull market, but the bull (and the companies etc that replenished stock, and hedged it on the futures market) threw up its victims from $14 to $18, 70 x 4 = 280 Moz, and now hopes for suckers buying the 280 Moz at the higher price. And then they'll dump their hedge too, and hello Kitty Back $14 and a tad lower due to those that took the opportunity to Get Out! Then the story of "all my euros" will silverize! Hang on!
Back in 2011 the euro was so-called high and the dollar was so-called trashed: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1 http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=w1 Silvers price average in 2011 was $35. What does this make clear? That more elements matter to a price, and my previous post said which, and my thought is that their weight on the price is bigger than the euro/dollar one. General prices don't rise. Why would silvers? Some people buy silver as a hedge against general price risings. Why paying more for a hedge if there is nothing to hedge? I do know that some money for nothing clubbers out there hurried back in at $14-15 and now need suckers to buy it from them at $18 and in general As High As Possible. So Good luck with your Search for Suckers!
It is going lower this year for sure I was not expecting any significant drop until end of the first 1/4 and from there was looking at $14-$15 usd. I should have put more of an emphasis on Euro bonds If we see any more significant drop in the next 14 days then we may very well be looking at $13. Of course all this is just speculation and in 12 hrs time we could be back at $20usd.
