Whilst I do expect a correction, I feel that the overall trend is positive. Possibly with a A$25 base by Easter.
I have never come across a precious metals permabear in this forum or anywhere for that matter. Permabear-stacker...that mythical creature actually doesn't exist. There are 2 vastly different kinds of stackers in this world - permabulls and the rest of the stacker community who chooses not to fool them self and others with absurd notions.
<date> <net total position> (x 5000 = Moz) <spot price> 18/02/2014 32853 (164,3 Moz) $21.62 05/11/2013 25834 (129,2 Moz) $21.735 24/09/2013 19621 (98,1 Moz) $21.67 18/06/2013 5952 (29,8 Moz) $21.57 Since these orders for the 'future' nearly never end in actually buying the silver, their cancellation means the spot price part they represent to vanish again. It's ago from before the $30>$20 price fall early 2013 that it was this high: 26/02/2013 30886 $29.18 So how long will it take this time to cancel them? They expect those that recently bought 35 Moz silver, to dump it again. That's why they hedge against it, using these futures positions.
For those members who believe that the breaking of $22 signifies a 'to da moon tomorrow' move coming up right away, then please shut up and put your money where your mouth is instead and just back the truck up and buy all in right now. You can't lose doing this if you truly believe that line of thinking you are spewing out. If you don't back the truck up, then you are as you come off....a fool. I will simply sit back and watch the bull trap snag its forewarned victims. .
Why dear? I swapped all the euro's I had for silver at the last $19.5 occasion. Because I saw the Comex position dropping again, big that time (2 smaller drops in the earlier weeks), at that $19.5. Then I saw some people calling for $24 and $25 So I subtracted a couple dollars, made it $22. And today we see $22? It looks like your duck served you on a plate!
What would be more interesting is to find out what caused this "little bump"? We might be able to determine how high it reaches. April should be the time for another dip, then we might see sideways, even lower trading in May, June. As it often happens during that period. Will it fall below the previous low or will the next lows be higher? We'll have to study closely to see whether gold is getting a bullish ignition or if it's just "breathing"...
I'm not sure about that interesting, over the 3 years I dumped euro's for ag's, I saw dozens reasons given for silver price movements, ranging from osama bin laden along debt ceilings to japan earthquakes. Despite all these, you can now get 1/3 more silver for the same euro's. A possible reason for the silver (and other) price rises is the G20 decision to spend 1500 billion over the next 5 years, as to push 'growth' and make it easier for the central planning debt club to pay off their debt in mathematical terms and erase it in economical terms. So the money for nothing club out there, probably thought that we stackers will again be willing to pay more so they quickly frontrunned us (hence the steep price rise) and are now watching what we do. Well, I suspended buying silver since they rushed back in, and I'm watching them instead.
I think they are going to change the rules of the game. They change the methods and the results will look a lot better. But I still would say the global collapse won't happen. In fact, I'm inclined to believe it will happen (higher chance of happening than not happening). Turkey, Egypt, Japan, Venezuela, Greece, Spain,... all these riots and crises have strong economic problems in the background. Japanese, Argentinians and Australians are seeing tremendous currency devaluation. And those of them who have PM's are happy now. You got out from PM's totally? :/ As a long term investment it's quite good. Think about your pension. Some stack in order to have something put away when they're older. The pension systems in the World, especially in the EU/US are unsustainable (in the current form, at least). Paying money to the state or some private firm and people hoping to get nice payment when they retire is rather naive. If prices fall, you can still hold your PM's for 10, 20... 50 (or more!) years. On that very long term they will certainly preserve more value than the US dollar, the euro or any other fiat currency. The euro might as well go bust within 5 years or so... and that still sounds very optimistic.
If this is ment as some answer on what I said, then I have a hard time following it. If I pick out your elements separately, then I'd say that the AUD certainly isn't a 'tremendeus currency devaluation' example. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6A&p=w1 Todays 0.9 is far from the bottoms we saw 2008- Global collapses? Euro busts? Well.. possible. Likely? Dunno. What I do know is that people still go on vacation and spend on stuff they don't really need. Serious/hyper inflation requires an inflationary spending level that underceeds the basic / necessities level. This isn't the case now, and it also doesnt look like trending to it. I got out from PM's? Where did I say that? So far I never sold silver, as in selling it to keep euro's / whatever. I sold once a couple kilo < 0.900 purity silver, due to a decision to limit stack to certain purities and coins, as to make it easier to keep track off. I used the fiat to buy bullion, in the wrong order, I had to hurry to sell it in order to pay the bullion order. So my silver stack never dropped so far, it only increased, and I plan to increase it further. I said I suspended buying silver. That's not selling huh? That's just... pausing. Because of the price rise. I want more silver so I keep/accumulate again euro's for after the moneyfornothing club dumped the price again down to where it came from (and maybe lower if others sold during the bump).
