Yeah, but with $450/oz silver, that above ground amount of silver could be ramped up pretty fast, plus all the scrap would flood the market. So even though it would be nice, I don't think silver will overshoot it's historical ratios of 1:10-16 Re: $450 I believe silver will do way better, or should I say $ will do much worse, but gold will be way higher as well.
I've mentioned this before but didnt really get a proper answer. Aren't silver prices supposed to skyrocket when the paper holders try to cash in, but under what circumstance will they cash in unless the government fails or some major event occurs. Wont they just sell it off or hold onto it and never claim physical? So silver will not skyrocket unless we have a major government fall or a major terrorist even happens in my opinion
the paper holders arent the people manipulating its the people selling ( Lets just call them JP) to the paper holders. JP gets a piece of paper writes on it. " You own 5000 oz of silver " Sells it to someone for $105,000 for JP to make a profit off this piece of paper they need silver to go down in value when the person who owns the piece of paper then comes to JP and says - can i have my 5000 oz of silver JP then says sorry we have no silver here is some cash at spot price. Price of silver is now $18 JP makes $15,000 However if JP has no silver then the client will use that $90,000 to try and buy physical silver people with the physical silver (stackers) can then turn around and say physical price is $400 thus the disconnect etc etc
Well I can't agree it looks better. This is just a personal opinion. As far as I know gold doesn't start oxidising. I really hate that one of my first silver coin I've got for special occasion is becoming brown. :/
You're assuming that the value of these 2 metals is totally dependent upon the above ground supply and that the two metals are exactly equally valued in all other measures because your argument would have silver 1 to 3 if there was 3 times as much gold as silver. The assumption you and many silver stackers make is a false assumption. If it were the case that silver's value was based on the same values as gold, then we would have already been seeing a 3 to 1 ratio some time this century....it hasn't happened and never will, in my opinion.
+1. Also assuming market participants are robotic and non-human. No matter how much we wish, markets just don't work like that.
You're assuming that these paper investors will want to buy silver....why? There are many other assets these paper investors can buy and in fact if they really wanted to buy physical silver, they would have bought that in the first place. The investors who buy paper silver generally do not think the same way about precious metals as stackers do. Therefore, to them, physical silver is probably less appealing as an investment than most other investments.
This gets explained by all the gurus in two ways.. most experts and silver bugs should be able to rattle this off like an evangelist can quote from genesis.. A: Like all market movers ie: big hedge funds.. they (bullion banks and banks) use huge concentrated postisions to create a market direction getting the price to move beyond sensitive price points (support levels) and profit on the way down.. or go long and then get out once many people/entities are participating at higher prices levels. It's most famously called the boom/bust cycle (keynesian Centralised economic planning) which banks (FED and IRB and Country RB's - actually all PRIVATE) use to fleece poor mortgage holders (before the event of derivitivate and futures).. now days the tools are much more advanced as technology has allowed for more cunning ways to fleece investors/households/countries of their true wealth into the concentrated profit maximising hands of private banking entities .. this is where 2 comes in. 2. Certain industies formed a cartel in the 70s to ensure that they could maintain low prices levels of silver to keep costs of production down.. ie: Kodak and DuPont.. from there conspiracies were born (out of reality) about how a select group with a very real interest in keeping the price low could pool there money and either dump silver into the open market driving prices down (only to buy back cheaper once investor sediment declined).. Instead of commodities fair trade commision taking on the industry giants keeping prices low, they went after the hunt bros who were effectively on the other side of the trades, going long and buying it up at the crazy low prices.. and no greedy banking or industry cartel wants to be outsmarted by some southern oil tycoon entrepreneuers.. so they took them down.. out of this injustice the conspiracy was born. Not much has changed since then except now they can short, naked short, use futures.. banks want to control the price as its a monetary metal which is a canary to Fiat inflation, industry needs the price low to ensure low costs of production , Market-makers want brutal price swings to make greedy profits buying low and selling high.. all very elementary and all very real.. The conspiracy is really just when people say its exceptional manipulation in the silver arena.. and then show stats that the bullion banks are flooding the market with paper, lending eachother Paper silver, then using this loaned silver on their books to create additonal fictional silver future contracts with a miniscule reserve ratio, there is no transparency here, also recently Tungsten has been found in place of gold, and suspicions that bullion banks dont hold the physical they claim. PM (Bron) seemed certain they do not engage in fractional reserve gold contracts .. not sure about silver, but look into lloyds tsb as a case study just read more and youll answer your q, its all on the internet.. NOTE: this is all off the top of my head from memory!
It's very simple: upward it can spike as easily as it can crash, because the cheap price stimulates everyone to buy it up! So, as soon as goes down, the "manipulators" and everyone else buys up like mad. That's what happened to gold. Blowing a bubble, yes... ETF's can also be bought up, not just sold-off... Physical demand also increases, as a result of cheap price. Along the way, we consume silver, so the long-term price increase is highly likely. But once it starts climbing, you should pack up and ride the waves until it reaches high enough to sell! Sell-offs will occur in the future as well, but once price is down, one has to be way too naive not to buy... Know when to enter and when to get out. (If you want to get out at all!) "Manipulation" doesn't ruin the game, if you enter and exit at the right times. It's an endless game of riding the waves.
TreasureHunter what's your long term target for silver? When will you stop being a buyer and start being a seller, at what price?
That's a good question, but I think silver can certainly surpass 50 $/oz. It would be interesting, if those "more than 100 $ per ounce" silver predictions came true...
TreasureHunter here is my plan: currently anything under 20 per oz I don't mind buying, when spot increases I will re evaluate and decide the maximum I will pay per oz. Also as spot increases I will more more towards semi and numismatic coins to reduce my exposure to price falls. I was thinking of selling possibly around 25% of my stack when the price of silver reaches all time highs, in order to reduce my exposure a lot in case silver comes crashing back down. The rest I will sell if and when the price reaches 100+ That is my thought at the moment, although this might all change, and I might end up keeping my stack forever And still collect silver for my personal collection, opposed to purely for investment purposes. I guess it depends on my financial situation in a few years.
Sounds like a good plan, mate Semi-numismatic coins are really good, because they also have numismatic value. Some (credible, plausible) predictions even speak about 500+ $ silver "on the long term". Personally, after examining some charts and investigating other source, I concluded that the 75 $ mark is very credible. That could be an "all time high", in nominal terms, at least... But Silver could go very high. No-one knows... Currently, according to the press, the production cost is at around 17 $, so it's possible that it won't dip lower or, it won't dip much lower - whatever happens, it can't stay too close to production cost (like this level we're at right now...). This is indeed a very good opportunity to buy, indeed...
Okay, I'm really going to test the conventional wisdom of silver stackers here: The argument by a number of stackers is that the increased physical demand for silver will move the price up dramatically. If the value of silver in the marketplace, represented as the spot price, remains on the volatile side for several more years, stackers will surely take advantage of this volatility by buying bars and coins when prices are on the low end of the volatility. But, volatility is bad for industry. If industry sees too much volatility they will start to find alternatives for silver as much as possible. They have already started to do this and I've already mentioned new materials and technology that are probably going to replace silver usage by industry to a degree or in an amount that could be significant. Therefore, since industry makes up the vast amount of physical silver consumed and if we hypothesize for a moment that that demand may shrink considerably at some time over the next decade, will the much smaller amounts of silver that stackers buy really somehow offset this suggested industry curtailing of volatile silver? Finally, and this may be the most thought provoking question to silver stackers, even if there was a great increase in demand for silver by industry over the next decade (highly unlikely in my view but I am certainly willing to conjecture about it) we know that silver's value in the market, as represented as the spot price, is tied to the pelvis of gold....how is it that silver's value (based on the hypothesis of much greater demand) can ever be truly expressed? Do you really think that silver will be uncoupled from gold in the marketplace? Really? That said, I continue to look for good deals on blobs and semi-numi silver. .
There were/are so many speculations. What if asteroid hit Earth and you will loose everything... As I've said once... The longer time period in future you take the more variables you get. Look at forecast before .com stocks crashed. They were probably the same as today for silver. And you think that industry will depend on a material that is 100$ per g. Give me a break. I think that silver will have better chance of achieving "sky high" values when more people will have it. I don't know many people who buy silver.
Um, hello.....the vast majority of people in the world do not own any collectively meaningful (to the markets) amount of silver, therefore you're revealing a fact that is counter to your conclusion of sky high silver....if you believe that it is silver ownership by individuals that will bring the spot sky high. I don't think it really works that way because that ignores industry's role as just one example... Also, saying that a massive asteroid may hit the earth (scientists already are tracking all large asteroids at great distances from the earth and know that none have a trajectory of colliding with earth) is equivalent to me conjecturing on silver's decreased role in industrial usage based on some current and real interesting new technologies and materials and the industry feared volatility of silver is frankly, not a sensible argument at all. That's like saying that maybe if men started having babies then the abortion debate would be very different. Come on....let's talk in the realm of reason.
I plan to keep buying until spot hits my cost average. Every purchase I make drops my average. So im not exactly sure what the exact number will be but less than 30.
All you have to ask yourself is, what is the probability of silver being worth more sometime in the future than it is currently worth now. I think it is extremely high that the value will increase, even if industry demand drops a bit. Silver's industry uses will never be completely replaced with other materials. The price will simply adjust so that it is attractive for industry to use. As demand for silver reduced because of alternatives, the price will fall, the fall in price will increase the demand for silver, until silver reaches its equilibrium in the markets. Although it will never become stable, as we all know that the price is made extremely volatile by speculators as well as actual demand. People will always speculate on the value of silver, silver is a form of money. Until we start mining asteroids the price of silver can't fall below and stay below a certain level. Savings accounts are packing out returns of less than inflation, and interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future, as the high levels of govt debts can not be serviced if there is a significant increase in interest back to 'normal' rates. In conclusion, I think buying silver now is a low risk investment. So BUY BUY BUY until your boots are full
I agree on the buying thing but not too much right now,just nibble if you really have too, as silver/gold is still dropping ,better to wait a bit and see if some kind of bottom happens then fill your boots.
Yea, better to purchase in lots of small bits rather than one large bit, as it is impossible to guess the bottom. It may already be in, we may go lower. so BUY BUY BUY (but don't forget to cost average)
