It seems most will look at history as repeating itself, even when it comes to finite resources. It will not. It can't. millions of ounces of silver are literally being used up, and demand will only increase. Other technologies will certainly be made available, however, silver is a very useful metal that will always be purposeful. Shrinking resources, i.e., supply...with even a moderate demand...makes silver a bull long term.
Maybe Gazza, maybe not. Gold and silver were valued thousands of years ago for very different reasons than they are today. They were not valued as industrial metals and if silver's use as an industrial material is replaced by new materials (which can be produced cheaper), technology, and needs, then silver will be valued as what? In ancient times, and even some 100 years ago, gold and silver were valued as currency in many regions of the world....today is a very different story. To claim that because silver and gold was once valued in history as a form of currency that means that they will always be valued is maybe not such an accurate analysis for the long term. Beautiful seashells had great value to some tribes at one point....today there is little value in those seashells as far as I can see. Times will continue to change what is valued by most people. Maybe silver's time is coming sooner than some may believe.. My point is that there is danger in look to the distant past to make a claim of value of a material today. Don't get me wrong, I stack because I believe that silver still has a ways to go before it could be replaced industrially by other new materials and technology thereby making it a sound investment for me but I also keep a very open mind about change that catches many people off guard.
I have to agree with mmissinglink a bit here, you really cant use history as a argument as to the value of silver , we have technology that they didn't have over the last 5000 years or at least that we "know of " and they are always trying to improve materials , to make it cheaper or improve its properties . They could very well develop a material that uses a cheaper metal like copper that works as good or even better then silver , who knows. But I don't think silver is going to be replaced any time soon or atleast I hope not
Yes, like electricity. Solar. Photography (always a need, albeit shrinking). Cell phone. (Over 3 billion used per year, with less than 1% recoverable silver). The list goes on. The romans had a $hit ton of silver, used for NONE of these things. By the time it becomes economically viable to recycle cell phones for silver and gold...it will mean silver and gold are 'TO DA MOON."
You can literally eat silver... at $5 an ounce, I may. Silver in fabric, 100% non-recoverable. I understand what you're saying. Much can be said about Oil prices. They will never reach $400 a barrel, because other alternative fuels will be used prior to reaching such heights. But, remember...GOLD almost hit $2000 an ounce. 1 measly ounce of metal...$2,000. What are silver's limits? Why not the same? More? Less? I stack, because of the need in a variety of uses that WILL NOT be recovered, and because it's a deplenishing resource. Lastly, and I think this is important. Silver is the best known metal for thermal conductivity. Yes, other resources may be used in replacement of Silver, but with newer energy technologies becoming available, thermal conductivity could play a major role. Out goes one use for Silver, in comes another?
No one has mentioned the use of silver in medicine. I have read a few articles about it and found it very interesting. Maybe a few years down the road there will be a huge demand for silver in the field of medicine. Maybe just sayin.....
Disregarding consumption - as a store of value silver and gold for sure culturally are not going to change in the foreseeable future. Sea shells just aren't in the same ballpark. Nations didn't send fleets full of sea shells - they sent gold. Why do you think nations stored their gold in New York? - they didn't store their sea shells there Central banks have been buying hundreds of tons of gold and not one single bloody sea shell - guys, doesn't that give you just a tad of a hint? Consumption is different - I agree the future consumption of silver will more than likely be high - but, I don't know why. In future gold might be consumed as well, we don't know. Anyone think a few decades back that platinum would be a consumable? Have a great day all Gazza
haha you can't have it both ways. What you just stated is exactly what you accused the permabull stackers of doing just in the opposite direction. You want the price to go down so you seek reasons why it should go down and dismiss the reasons it went up in the first place.
Actually I was just showing that the argument used by permabulls could easily be flipped on its head with equal appeal to the mantra of "manipulation". My point is that perhaps it's not manipulation that silver has encountered but simply, mostly a correction down. Funny how I have never seen any permabulls claim that it is manipulation when the spot is high. A bit bizarre, aye?
This IS manipulation but not the sort of big conspiracy theory manipulation the permabulls keep going on about. The commodities futures markets are run by the big banks. The futures market has grown so big in comparison to the physical market that the futures control the spot price - the tail wagging the dog. A small number of futures players are actually using futures to hedge real production or whatever but the vast majority are speculating. So most of the big players are traders and they are all chart followers. Plus all the little guys like wrcmad that tag along. Chart trend going up - everybody goes long. Chart trend going down - everybody goes short. If you were a commodities trader in a big bank with big muscle behind you and you wanted to boost your annual bonus, what is to stop you from helping the trend along at times when it suits you - together with your mates in the other big banks ? Who is going to catch you ? The exchange? Your company runs the exchange ! So - maybe without all this horseshit volatility the silver price would naturally have slowly risen to $25 or maybe $30.... ... but the futures cowboys took it way above that to $48 and then when the trend turned the same cowboys are overshooting on the way down. Price has gone down because there are more sellers than buyers. At some point the crowd will change direction and there will be more buyers than sellers and the price will go up again. Nothing to do with physical supply and demand in the real world.
Because can't last forever. Eg. short sellers have to cover at some point, which requires buying back the stock/metal later. If there is more demand causing higher prices in the physical metal, as was seen after the big fall a couple of months ago, buyers on the futures markets could demand physical delivery which could require naked shorts to buy (at least AFAIK, may be wrong). Even physical selling of gold by central bankers may only temperately suppress the price. The US told Germany it would take 7 years to give them their gold back, presumably because they sold/lent it out, what happens when they have to buy it back? If/when all this happens, the price could explode upwards pretty fast. Paper/technical traders can all buy and push up the price too, doesn't just work in reverse.
Not if the short sellers are the ones who actually control the futures exchange. They can just change the rules.
I was thinking about opening the topic about usage of silver in medicine. I think that our health authorities are waiting for "bless" from FDA (I think) and they will maybe allow it here. Some of "healers" are already selling it.
I struggle with this line of argument. It is easily forgotten that there are two opposite sides to every trade. For every seller (short or not), there is a buyer on the other side to create that position. Point is.... there are just as many long positions bought as there are short positions sold..... all the time.
While I don't have any more magic numbers for Silver yet, I think silver maybe released / manipulated to the upside Before gold. Buying back in at these prices is a gift and we are loving it
What if, as Trew points out, they control or at least have significant influence over the futures market....then they could forseeably do what they want for as long as they want....including manipulating the price high. And this was sort of my point from the beginning....why is it only called manipulation by some permabulls when the price corrects or falls down? As for Germany not getting all their gold at once, that may have little to nothing to do with the Fed not having enough on hand right now. Perhaps they simply want to control the time frame in which Germany has access to all their gold. It would be a good cover if they told Germany, "Oh, sorry, we just don't have that much right now". As for medicine, how much silver could possibly be used in a dose without it becoming a toxic dose??? The amount used in medicine would mean how much actually bought by manufacturers? A few kilos? I don't know....just asking. Seems like not much cause for a significant push in demand but I don't know. Graphene is claimed to be a bacteria blaster....when (not if) investment dollars pour into that emerging technology, it likely will be produced at a much lower cost than silver ever could. I'm just thinking outside the silver box is all. .
silver can't be worth more than gold ever! gold just looks better. we only stack silver because it looks like such a bargain! maybe its not that cheap... silver is like bank interest, it looks like you make money off it, but really you're just keeping up with the inflation
Gold is scarcer than silver also. Gold is more or less out of reach in terms of stacking any significant amount for a lot of people though. I think that is an argument in favor of silver's long term silver to gold value increase. That being said though, there will never be a day where silver surpasses gold in cost....I'm convinced of this.
171,300 tonnes of above ground gold 499,500 tonnes of above ground silver So the GSR should be 3 to 1 silver should be $450 per oz
