I think I'm coming down with a bad case of CPF (crap prediction fatigue) or as some people call it SBPS (seriously bad prediction syndrome)
Best you take a good dose of Koshie and Mel on sunrise with a read of the Age and a good lie down then, if that doesn't help try the ABC morning news show until all symptoms of reality have dissipated.
Well, the fact is that if I had waited for that couple euro's, I would have been able today to buy it at sub 1000 euro, right now the total dropped to EUR 997,04 So as you see, your 'hope' was wrong.
Basically then all your analysis on your buy price based upon an interpretation of all those figures has left you hanging right ? You could of bought lower now right ?
I didn't use any figures interpretation, since the Comex position never showed a continued downtrend, it has always been around 50K since october 2012. ETF stocks also didnt drop. So basically, the price drop from $35.5 was mostly due to stackers selling their silver. As is easily seen on auction sites. Plenty silver for sale. It's possible that the $30 to $28 drop is due to the Comex entities, we'll only know at the next COT report releases. So there is nothing to analyse, alot stackers sold and are still selling, and I have no idea when they will stop doing that. My silver purchase of yesterday when spot was abit over $29, was based on some rough estimate, I knew that the $35 to $32-31 drop was due to the physical delivered market side. So I assumed that they would sit ready to buy back in, and hold the price above the last bottom $26 + $3-4 = $29. As shown today, that assumption has an error of nearly $1, as of yet. If I would assume that all those that sold their stacks, do NOT sit ready to buy back in, then I can subtract instead of add that $3-4 from $26, and we'll get $22-23. See, unlike some seem to suggest, it's not the Comex setting the rules. Or for the matter, any market side, we all together do it, and as is clearly shown, alot people that stack like we do, sold. Maybe an idea for a topic to ask here who all sold and why.
Are you sure? Volume or open interest does not have to change for price to change. Just because the Comex or ETF position didn't reduce does not indicate the price drop was due to physical selling. While Vol and OI is a useful tool, your interpretation of the market dynamics of this latest drop (IMO) is a little off.
Thanks for the tip Dr SC. you can keep Koshie and mel but i'll take reading a broadsheet (preferably the national Murdoch rag) and a good lie down anyday..
I didnt talk about volume or open interest. I talked about the total amount positions of the supply (and implicit also the demand) side of the Comex silver market. And it does indicate. Due to automatic market arbitration with the same high frequency trading speed. This causes this total position to be reflected in the spot price. The spot price contains a part that reflects futures demand (the demand over X month(s)). If the Comex players dump their positions, that spot price part shrinks (in silvers case, since supply side is always net short there), and they thus drive the price.
