http://soberlook.com/2012/11/rba-wi...tml?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter Eek that's one scary chart
Nice find... but lets put it into perspective; It's a Merrill Lynch forecast... they ain't got a good track record of being right. No analyst in their right mind would write (and I paraphrase the 1st sentence) 'we're not basing our decision on data'. The hard data is that, historically, mining has had a roughly 11 year cycle. This means it should've been contracting around '07/'08. Since then they've invented a new term "Super Cycle". Much like the "Magic Bullet Theory" it was invented by those with 'skin-in-the-game' as a way of bull$#itting their way through an unexplainable situation to an audience that doesn't really want to know the truth...that; Mining has been boosted by China trying to goose their economy with an oversupply of US$ and Nugget shot Kennedy from behind the white picket fence on the grassy knoll.
Nurture alternate sources of economic growth? Is the author suggesting that the RBA (or the government) has displayed any interest or desire to encourage the development of any alternate sources of economic growth that are broadly beneficial and substantive? Where? When? I must have missed it! In fact, whenever I think of the advantages this country has in its favour to capitalise on the opportunity of international manufacturing leaving China, largely due to cost increases, Zero IP protection and their dodgy ideas about the rule of law, I just see we have been undermined at every turn. We have every single advantage of China as an export base, plus some significant advantages and yet we can't manage to develop a single export industry beyond primary resources. Every export industry we have has been in decline for years. We can hardly even produce steel and aluminium when we have Coal, Iron Ore, Bauxite and Electricity in abundance. And what we are producing may not last too much longer. Oh yes, I can just see Saint Glenn (Stevens) miraculously manipulating the monetary policy machinery and Archangel Julia (Gillard) face planting her way to creating alternate sources of economic growth for Australia! Fair suck of the sauce bottle, mate!
