XJO has just peaked

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by Davros10, Jan 13, 2020.

  1. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I've been interested in Elliott Waves for the last score years and I think we've reached a major turn.
    The GFC in 2007/8/9 represented a roughly 50 % drop in the Australian market (A wave) The last decade is a very drawn out B wave that has just finished and rolled over (today) into a C wave that is likely to look a whole lot like Wave A. I'm expecting a drop of around 50% in the next 18 months or so.

    I'm expecting that almost all reading this will dismiss it, but if anyone was sitting on the fence as to whether to enter the market or not, I'd be trying to push you off on to the ground and saying "why not keep your money in the bank for a month or 2 and see how crazy this idea is then"
     
  2. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I poked my nose into EWT about a decade ago and it seemed to make sense, however chart reading is an art in my view, and not a science, and so no matter the method used, the forecaster needs that indefinable "instinct" to hang the answer their prognostications suggest.

    But I'm willing to open my mind to your prediction. Are there other factors other than EWT you see supporting your prediction?

    e.g. AUD dropping, China switching off the money tap, etc.
     
  3. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Appreciate the question.

    I'm not factoring anything other Elliott Waves into the reading. I'd reckon it's too easy to either talk yourself in or out of a position according to your slant on current or future events.
     
  4. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's possible that this is a huge opportunity to dodge a bullet.

    If you had $1,000,000 invested in the ASX in Oct 2007 and let it ride, you would have had $500,000 18 months later.
     
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  5. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If you were invested in a general fund that covered say the asx200 then your premise is correct but if you were invested in individual stocks then the result could of varied a lot from that both more or less.
     
  6. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    True, but most people's exposure is via their Super fund. Do super funds wander far from the ASX200? I expect not.
     
  7. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Any predictions for sp500 and the Dow? Both looking to peak to me.
     
  8. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Silver260, leo25 and 66rounds like this.
  9. GoldenEye

    GoldenEye Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    And what if you had a $1M term deposit and the bank did a bail-in?
     
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  10. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    As happened in Cyprus
     
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  11. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Didn’t they all get their money back?
     
  12. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    As far a I know the government split the bank into two, one side being the profitable part and the other side being the dog and then instead of paying the bank's depositors their money they were given shares in the dog part of the bank to the "value" of their deposits.
     
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