Will there be a silver mania? If so, how will it affect you?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Sonic, Apr 22, 2015.

  1. Sonic

    Sonic New Member

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    More important than any actual hypothetical 'moon' number is the hive mind mentality surrounding such an event. Mass confidence levels. Will you view things differently than the average person, having bought in while those confidence levels were low?

    If silver starts to climb and the general public becomes more vested in the idea, confidence levels rise and maybe we even eventually breach the $50 mark and are in new territory, new possibilities, people are starting to view silver like they view Apple stock...would you keep buying? Would you agree with the general public and feel silver can only keep going up up up? Or would you, having the advantage of being one of the few that bought at low levels, feel that it might be too good to be true, that history will repeat itself, and it may come crashing back down?

    When everyone around you is raving about a golden opportunity to keep buying, will you be willing or able to walk away with your winnings or will you keep playing? Or stop buying but keep your stack?
     
  2. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    Sell half to get all your money back
    And ride the other half.
     
  3. Miloman

    Miloman Active Member Silver Stacker

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    $50? That's a mania? Come now that's no mania.

    Putting on a "Magical Hat" in "fairy land"...
    I think territory like $100-$150 plus would start to get a lot of people's attention, likely not before that.

    Also it depends of the environment, if property prices in Sydney drop by 60% and we get $150/oz silver then that would be something. A moon shot... like Mike Maloney says would be 500oz for average city house. In Sydney that's $1 million or $2000/oz Silver. Which is fantasy-land by most standards.

    Also my "winnings" are my 2 oz of Silver not the little cash I have jiggling in my pocket.

    So it's all relative. Cash is only a method to get stuff, typically under 99% of circumstances, cash is worth less over time... it is being debased.
     
  4. ozcopper

    ozcopper Administrator Staff Member

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    Come on Miloman, I was sure you would have had 3 oz by now. You slacker ;)
     
  5. Miloman

    Miloman Active Member Silver Stacker

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    By next week, I promise!
     
  6. Sonic

    Sonic New Member

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    I don't know what the magical number would be but what's important is the mindset. $50+ WOULD be new territory, so it COULD stir up a lot of confidence which could boost the price more. Say it goes 60, 70, 80, maybe even reaches that $150, having bought at $15 are you still going to think it's a "bargain" like others will still be calling it? Others who think $150 is "just the beginning." When silver reaches a peak (in dollars) this is how people will view it. They will not say "oh no silver is so high right now, I'm afraid to buy in" even though that IS the smart way of looking at it, history tells us that's not how people react.

    Also I don't live in Australia so I don't think about property prices in Sydney.
     
  7. HugeMetalFan

    HugeMetalFan Member

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    It would certainly make holding reasonable quantities of Silver interesting, especially if it ever reaches dot com level mania described above!
    Personally; as I've been buying at a comparably lower price (than this $50+ figure) I would sell at increments and switch to another PM :)
     
  8. Miloman

    Miloman Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Fair enough.

    Perspective is important. Paper money is not "the" measure of value, rather it's the purchasing power and cost of things relative to one another.

    I know this is a difficult concept for many to understand.

    So if your idea is to see a rise in the $ value of silver and sell then me put it this way...
    If silver goes up 5x from here but everything else goes up 8x is it a good time to sell? Although you have gained $, you have instead lost purchasing power relative to everything else.

    So my answer above was it depends on the context of relative purchasing power. To me under this environment I'd rather keep my 2oz of silver even if we see $50 unless everything plummets and I see good opportunities to put my $100.

    If we see the world somehow get rid of leverage and corruption and the fiat banking system, unrepresentative governments, sick-care etc and we see $50 or even $150 with everything being the same, I'll still hanging on to those 2oz. So no most here would not "trade" their silver in and most here look but don't post.

    I'd imagine at least 30% of stackers do so as a catastrophic hedge of all different kinds.
     
  9. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Tread cautiously, maybe look at fractional silver before going all in on a whole ounce
     
  10. rodmadman

    rodmadman New Member

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    Big question. What role will silver play in the event a gold supported currency is introduced. Will this drive up the (value) of gold ? If so will silver follow? Will this cause a huge increase in demand for both or just gold? I will hold until I have to use my stack.
     
  11. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    For me it's not just about general ppp and a big number, it's about the next investment. I Know I sound like a broken record but these threads keep coming up; everyone is focused on the day silver jumps on a Saturn V when they should be at least as focused on the day after and what they will do with the money they now have handy. If you bought silver in 2005 and sold it in 2011 you made bank, if you put that money into real estate or bought depressed US stocks in the weeks of the 2011 peak you'd be making whatever the next superlative after bank is. Then you wait for an opportunity like the end of last year, wash, rinse and repeat.

    The great thing about PM's is that they usually peak when other assets are depressed so the real money is in parlaying your investment. Do your research now, have s few options open, you don't want to her making a rushed decision.

    If you want to stay in PM's then look into the types of collectibles that tend to have fixed premiums. At the moment the 1oz low premium blob to 1oz s1 dragon is around 4.5 to 1, if silver hits $50 again it could drop to around 2.5 to one, similar story for sovereigns and old US coins, all sorts really.
     
  12. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    redundant question sorry.
    We will NEVER EVER again see a gold backed currency.
    You may as well be asking how much real estate will increase when we start getting immigrants from other galaxies.
    That is more likely than a gold back currency.
     
  13. Sonic

    Sonic New Member

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    Well... That's what people SAY lol. But we don't know what changes could come decades from now. Maybe an official crypto currency is next on the list, and maybe it fails miserably. Full circle history repeats itself etc. who knows?

    Phrenzy good input, I need to be thinking about the next step. And obviously this whole discussion is moot if the purchasing power rises equally because it won't make any difference. I'm not talking about a world where a cup of coffee costs $40. I'm talking about the perceived value. If everything else goes up equally then people will not perceive silver as being anymore valuable than they do now.
     
  14. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    You are onto it phrenzy.
    This is just one vehicle to try and make money.
    What we do have over shares and other commodities is we hold what we own.
    The collector aspect of metals and the fact we can go garage saling or op shopping to increase our holdings is a massive plus+.
    But the time will come where we need to sell in order to gain a return.
    Here is where one of the problems with gold and silver come in.
    I bet you many many people on this site considered selling when we hit the mid $40s but were trying to eek out those last few dollars.
    Or maybe they thought this was just the beginning of the new paradigm, lol.
    This problem is not so prevalent in stocks you have no personal attachment too.
    You double up on a stock and out the door it goes and then onto the next project.
    This doe not seem to hold true with stackers.
    I am in it for the money and i do ok at this.
    But i am also a collector and some stuff will just never leave :)
     
  15. Threadneedle St

    Threadneedle St New Member

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    The Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year-old Richard Russell, warned that China and the super wealthy are preparing for something big but silver will surprise everyone.


    My advice is buy silver. Load up on silver. To buy actual physical silver I suggest buying the "monster" silver boxes. If you don't want to buy physical silver, I suggest buying SLW, SLV, CEF, in equal portions. Unlike gold, silver has never been wrested from the public by government edict.

    China has been a huge buyer of gold and the current low price of gold suits China fine. Based on my studies, I believe silver will be a more profitable item than gold.
     

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